Originally Posted by Yakuza Rich
There is actually more evidence that suggests that ALWAYS going for it on 4th down is the right thing to do. There is a professor from California that NFL Films did a piece on where he recorded years of NFL data and that in the end, a team that ALWAYS goes for it on 4th down would be at a significant advantage. Obviously, it's tough to convince coaches, owners, etc. of that, but the evidence is there to suggest it.
I think that study is pretty flawed. The occurrences of going for it on 4th down are far fewer than the times the ball was punted. Doesn't seem like a good way to get valid data.
I am not sure if this was part of the same study, but I had seen excerpts of one that had based some of their conclusions on data obtained from high school games. That made even less sense to me considering high school football and the NFL are drastically different.