Originally Posted by Jongb35
Actually, it's more difficult, and by a wide margin. Since 2000, passes on 3rd or 4th and 15 have been converted only 16.4 percent of the time (sample size of over 1,500). Non-surprise onside kicks get recovered at around a 30 percent rate.
How much of this is influenced by offenses, and more specifically, QBs that suck?
Doubtful Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and others are contributing much to the 4th & 15 attempts. They likely aren't in a position to ever go for it on 4th & 15. They aren't trailing as much as other teams are and likely don't take multiple negative plays on the way to 4th down in the few situations in which they are trailing.