Quote:
Originally Posted by Reality
The one thing no one is considering is that most of those 3rd/4th and 15 plays were not in desperation situations. If a team is up by 4-8 points with less than 2 minutes to play, they will play a soft defense giving up the short plays to protect against the big plays. Meaning, 4th and 15 will have a much higher conversion rate in those scenarios. That is even before you consider what VietCowboy said about several penalties negating any down and distance relevance.
#reality
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Yup. Goofy plan.
Onsides kicks takes the ball out of the QBs hands and forces special teams to get it back with a low percentage gamble. Onsides kicks are recovered about 20% of the time but that is mainly due to higher percentages on surprise attempts.
4th and 15 is a low percentage play for sure but you give the QB the ball and open up penalty issues. 5 yards holding call... bam first down.
Plus you give a hot team that has just scored a TD the chance to just keep on keeping on. No need to play defense at all.