[ABQCOWBOY]

Originally Posted by AbeBeta

it is about 20% for fake kicks at 15 yards.

http://www.drivebyfootball.com/2012/...urth-down.html

Onside kicks are successful 26% of the time.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...ide-kicks.html

The margin of error for both of these outcomes statistically indistinguishable, mostly because of the small sample sizes involved.

So it is not quit the same but it is withing 6%, which is fairly close I would think.