Other than my normal disclaimer about Luck and his ints, I agree with that list. I do tend to think it comes down to a 2 game "playoff" between Wilson and Griffin, meaning Wilson v SF week 16, and Griffin v Dallas week 17. If either one has an amazing showing in one of those two games, he will be the OROY. I think Luck drops out, unless he is amazing in both of his games.
Wilson has a stiff test against the 49'ers defense, but he is at home, and I could see him lighting them up. If he does that he absolutely deserves the OROY. If not, it opens the door for Griffin assuming he doesn't stink Sunday against the Eagles.