Originally Posted by Shinywalrus
This is not a "replace Tony Romo" thread. I am a Tony Romo fan.
But the draft is first and foremost a value game, and for the first time in years, value favors our position (which I'll go into in a moment), and this will be the first time in years that the value may be right for us to select a QB. We won't see a lot of mocks that throw early round QBs in them simply because fans like to construct mocks that immediately fit players into holes they see on the roster. Placing a QB high in your mock means selecting a player that probably won't contribute to making the team better immediately, so it's not a lot of fun.
Many draftniks insist on calling this a very weak draft class - especially at quarterback – but that’s really a misnomer. In reality, the QB class is very middle-heavy in comparison to past drafts, with a softer top-end lacking a sure-fire #1.
[View Full Quote]Consider that on average over the last 20 years, an average of 2.5 QBs have been picked in the first round, with an average of 1.05 in the second round. This number is fairly consistent over time, although over the long term it has risen. If we look back 50 years, for example, the average number of QBs drafted in the first round is 2.08. Among those selected in the first round, however, there is a strong bias toward those picks happening in the first 5 of the round. Over the last decade, more than 40% of first round QBs have gone in the top 5 picks.
The depth of the draft is quite good. In fact, it is actually quite possible that we will tie or break the record for the number of quarterbacks taken in the first two rounds. Believe it or not, no more than 6 quarterbacks have ever been taken in the first two rounds, and even the 6 level has only been achieved three times: in 1983, in 1999 and in 2011. There are two very good classes and one somewhat disappointing one in that list.
Consider the players, many of whom will have warts and flaws, who are legitimate Round 1 through Round 2 prospects. Many of you will find quibbles with individuals, but in general it should be clear that the following are generally thought to be in consideration in that area:
It's clear to all of us that none of these are excellent top-of-draft candidates, but what needs to be kept in mind is that the depth of this list is considerably greater than the average draft. There are simply more 2nd round "undersized, small arm, excellent skills" or "flawed prototype" QBs in this draft than in perhaps any draft in the last several years - in my mind, since 1999. Put into economic terms, the supply of late 1st through early 3rd round quality quarterbacks in this draft is significant.
- Matt Barkley
- Geno Smith
- Landry Jones
- Tyler Wilson
- Mike Glennon
- Ryan Nassib
- Tyler Bray
- Zack Dysert
- EJ Manuel
The other thing that has happened in recent years is the emergence of numerous successful young quarterbacks for still weak teams - in other words, the number of teams who have a quarterback they will be sticking with has risen substantially in recent years. Teams who would be likely to pursue a QB in the first 2 rounds would include Philadelphia, Arizona, Buffalo, San Diego and Kansas City. Denver, Oakland, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Minnesota are possibilities, but in general, more teams are invested in QBs than in recent years. Demand for a Round 1/2 QB is historically low.
Given our situation, this means that the Cowboys not only will be looking at quarterbacks who we like and who might fall to us in Round 2, we absolutely should be doing so. The value is likely to be right - despite the fact that the boards would almost certainly explode with Jerry Jones threads within about 5 seconds.
Which Round 2 QB selection would make you least angry? Most excited?
Would that also not push one of those guys into the third round where it would make sense to grab one then they can spend a pick on Dline and oline in the first two rounds
"It is the duty of the patriot to protect his country from his government."