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Originally Posted by xwalker
Is that opinion or is it supported statistically?
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None of this is an opinion. It has all been proved by years of research and analysis by other people.
As far as that specific point, passes are not less efficient because a team is behind. In fact, both winners and losers pass better when they're behind by 1-7 points in the first half than when they're ahead by 1-7 points in the first half. Winners also pass better when they're behind by 1-7 points in the second half than when they're ahead by 1-7 in the second half. Losers pass almost exactly the same in the second half whether they're ahead by 1-7 or behind by 1-7 -- they average slightly more yards per play and get sacked slightly less when they're behind, but they have a slightly higher passer rating and lower interception rating when they're ahead.
Quote:
I intended to say this:
"It appears that your opinions are:
A correlation between rush attempts and winning is an effect not a cause of winning (i.e. stats can be misleading).
A correlation between pass effectiveness and winning is a cause not an effect of winning. (i.e. stats are absolute)."
The primary point is how do you prove that run attempts correlation is effect and pass effectiveness correlation is cause in terms of winning?
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It's easy -- compare winners and losers in the same situations, in the first half, in the first three quarters, etc. Did the teams that won run more frequently than the teams that lost? As the stats I posted yesterday show, no, they did not --
In the first half of games this season, with the score tied, the team that ended up winning the game ran the ball 44.1 percent of the time. The team that ended up losing the game ran the ball 44.5 percent of the time.
Through three quarters, the team that ended up winning the game ran the ball 44.0 percent of the time when the score was tied. The team that ended up losing the game ran the ball 45.1 percent of the time.
When behind by 1-8 points (within one score) in the first half, the team that ended up winning the game ran the ball 41.5 percent of the time. The team that ended up losing the game ran the ball 41.0 percent of the time.
Through three quarters, when behind by 1-8 points, the team that ended up winning the game ran the ball 42.7 percent of the time. The team that ended up losing the game ran the ball 42.1 percent of the time.
When ahead by 1-8 points in the first half, the team that ended up winning the game ran the ball 43.2 percent of the time. The team that ended up losing the game ran the ball 43.7 percent of the time.
Through three quarters, when ahead by 1-8 points, the team that ended up winning the game ran the ball 43.9 percent of the time. The team that ended up losing the game ran the ball 43.8 percent of the time.
As you can see, winners and losers ran the ball almost exactly the same percentage of time based on the game situation -- winners did not run it a higher percentage of the time than normal, based on the game situation.
If you do the same thing with passing efficiency, winners pass the ball much more effectively in the same situations. That's how they get the leads -- and they protect the leads by preventing the other team from passing effectively.