new Kirwan Mock picks

[masomenos]

Originally Posted by smarta5150

Safeties @ 22 in general.

Its a joke that people thought it was a good idea to replace 1 unproven FS with another BEFORE we signed Hamlin and now its an even bigger joke that some people STILL wanna draft a FS @ 22.

Ah, I see. Well I'm one of the ones who honestly believes that Dallas is in good position to go BPA this draft and if it be a FS then so be it. Also, I don't necessarily think that the "unproven-ness" (if I can make up a word) of Pat Watkins and Michael Griffin is quite on the same level. Coming out of college I had Pat Watkins rated at a 1.5 out of 5 in coverage, while I have Griffin rated at an Ed Reed level of 4.5. I know this may not mean much of anything to you because a) you don't know who I am at all and b) because you don't know the formula and rating system I use, but it's something that has been fairly reliable over the years and it gives me a great deal of confidence in Griffin's potential.

There are a few positions that would make more sense @22 I suppose, as we're getting older at WR, could use depth and youth at CB and need some insurance for Flo at LT. Meachem is one guy who a lot of people have been talking about but in all honesty he's a little slow out of his breaks, although he does have great overall speed. But, if we could take a guy like Griffin in the first round and address WR later on with a guy like Johnnie Lee Higgins then I think we'd get better value.

But really, if we're going BPA then there is a good posibilty that Griffin could be that guy. I understand that you aren't too excited about taking a FS after we just signed Hamlin and it seems like you want to give Watkins more of a chance too. In all honesty Watkins is expendable, he was a 5th round pick for a reason, he has trouble locating the football when it's in the air (something we Cowboys fans know all to well) and it's not something he can really improve on at this point. I see nothing wrong with drafting a guy like Griffin, letting him and Hamlin compete this year and then letting Griffin takeover next year with another veteran backup.

[smarta5150]

Originally Posted by masomenos85

Ah, I see. Well I'm one of the ones who honestly believes that Dallas is in good position to go BPA this draft and if it be a FS then so be it. Also, I don't necessarily think that the "unproven-ness" (if I can make up a word) of Pat Watkins and Michael Griffin is quite on the same level. Coming out of college I had Pat Watkins rated at a 1.5 out of 5 in coverage, while I have Griffin rated at an Ed Reed level of 4.5. I know this may not mean much of anything to you because a) you don't know who I am at all and b) because you don't know the formula and rating system I use, but it's something that has been fairly reliable over the years and it gives me a great deal of confidence in Griffin's potential.

[View Full Quote]There are a few positions that would make more sense @22 I suppose, as we're getting older at WR, could use depth and youth at CB and need some insurance for Flo at LT. Meachem is one guy who a lot of people have been talking about but in all honesty he's a little slow out of his breaks, although he does have great overall speed. But, if we could take a guy like Griffin in the first round and address WR later on with a guy like Johnnie Lee Higgins then I think we'd get better value.

But really, if we're going BPA then there is a good posibilty that Griffin could be that guy. I understand that you aren't too excited about taking a FS after we just signed Hamlin and it seems like you want to give Watkins more of a chance too. In all honesty Watkins is expendable, he was a 5th round pick for a reason, he has trouble locating the football when it's in the air (something we Cowboys fans know all to well) and it's not something he can really improve on at this point. I see nothing wrong with drafting a guy like Griffin, letting him and Hamlin compete this year and then letting Griffin takeover next year with another veteran backup.

So you are saying Griffin will be the BPA if Bowe, Meachem, Jarret or even Spencer are all sitting there for us at 22?

So who you are?

If you are anything short of an NFL Scout or GM (which even they can be wrong) then it doesnt really matter.

You know how many writers or so-called "experts" out there are completely off when it comes to this time of year and rating players and predicting how well they will perform on the pro level? The original post of this thread is a perfect example.

You calling Watkins "expendable" on the lone fact he was a 5th round pick is pretty ridiculous yet most people would agree with you at 1st glance.

Then again, if you look at it closer you will realize that there are other facts to consider. There have been plenty of 1st round busts and plenty of 2nd day guys who have shined and gone on to do great things. I understand the number of players in these categories are lob sided but just because someone was picked on day 2 does not make them "expendable." Espicially with a sophomore kid like Watkins. There is this thing called developement. You cant expect to have a 1st day pick at every position who can start week 1 and give the team 10+ solid years. There will be players on every team who went overlooked, whether 2nd day picks or undrafted FAs.

[dmoore]

Can someone explain to me why he's trying to predict trades? I doubt there's going to be that many at the top where teams trade down only one pick. That mock draft was real bad, and I hope that's not how it turns out for us.

[smarta5150]

Originally Posted by dmoore

Can someone explain to me why he's trying to predict trades? I doubt there's going to be that many at the top where teams trade down only one pick. That mock draft was real bad, and I hope that's not how it turns out for us.

Most mock drafts are terrible.

Its like trying to predict every number in keno.

People should stick with grouping players as top 10, 11-20, and so on.

I guess there is some amusement into mocking the draft but as far as accuracy its like picking the winning lotto numbers.

[BLT]

i was just thinking the only time i ever see griffin going in the 1st rounder is when some 1 has our team drafting him.. no other time

[masomenos]

Originally Posted by smarta5150

So you are saying Griffin will be the BPA if Bowe, Meachem, Jarret or even Spencer are all sitting there for us at 22?

So who you are?

If you are anything short of an NFL Scout or GM (which even they can be wrong) then it doesnt really matter.

You know how many writers or so-called "experts" out there are completely off when it comes to this time of year and rating players and predicting how well they will perform on the pro level? The original post of this thread is a perfect example.

You calling Watkins "expendable" on the lone fact he was a 5th round pick is pretty ridiculous yet most people would agree with you at 1st glance.

[View Full Quote]Then again, if you look at it closer you will realize that there are other facts to consider. There have been plenty of 1st round busts and plenty of 2nd day guys who have shined and gone on to do great things. I understand the number of players in these categories are lob sided but just because someone was picked on day 2 does not make them "expendable." Espicially with a sophomore kid like Watkins. There is this thing called developement. You cant expect to have a 1st day pick at every position who can start week 1 and give the team 10+ solid years. There will be players on every team who went overlooked, whether 2nd day picks or undrafted FAs.

lol, I am NOT an NFL GM or scout, which means I matter exactly as much (or as little) as you do.

I do know how many experts are wrong every years, that's why I don't count myself in their ranks. I'm just a fan. I have developed a grading system that has been quite reliable over the past 5 years though and I tend to favor my own prospective scores over others. Since the experts are wrong so often I like to think that people like you and me have AT LEAST as much credibility as them. No?

I'm not calling Watkins expendable because he's a 5th round pick, I'm calling him expendable because he's poor in coverage and I don't believe his ball locating ability will significantly improve from where it is now. I don't see him as a player who has very much potential in all honesty. If Watkins wasn't able to gain any ball locating skills during his career at FSU then I seriously doubt he's going to be improving, it's just something he can't do. Some linemen have naturally quick feet, some WRs have natural hands, some FSs have a natural ability to locate objects in the air once they turn their head from one point to the other. Watkins seems to be missing this and it's something that is critical.

Edit: Oh and yes Jarrett is slow out of his breaks and could have serious issues with separation, there's a good possibility that Meachem will be gone, Bowe wouldn't be a bad choice at all, and Spencer is not worth the 22nd pick at all, for one he shows poor off the line speed.

[Tristan]

First this Jack *** starts by saying that the Raiders must address their dreadful QB situation, then he points out that a guy with a rocket arm who throws a great deep ball (which Al Davis must have) is there for the picking. Then he states that Josh Mcown negates their need for a QB?, you gotta be kidding me!

After the Raiders passed on Phillip Rivers, Ben Rothlisberger, Jay Cutler & Matt leinart for the likes of Kerry Collins and Aaron Brooks and become the laughing stock of the NFL. So now they should pass on two more "franchise QB" prospects for Josh (worthless) Mcown?

And if we pass on Ginn at 22, I'll be livid, unless it is because we took Jarrett instead, but it would be a gift from God if either of those two are still there for the taking at our pick IMO.

[smarta5150]

Originally Posted by masomenos85

lol, I am NOT an NFL GM or scout, which means I matter exactly as much (or as little) as you do.

I do know how many experts are wrong every years, that's why I don't count myself in their ranks. I'm just a fan. I have developed a grading system that has been quite reliable over the past 5 years though and I tend to favor my own prospective scores over others. Since the experts are wrong so often I like to think that people like you and me have AT LEAST as much credibility as them. No?

[View Full Quote]I'm not calling Watkins expendable because he's a 5th round pick, I'm calling him expendable because he's poor in coverage and I don't believe his ball locating ability will significantly improve from where it is now. I don't see him as a player who has very much potential in all honesty. If Watkins wasn't able to gain any ball locating skills during his career at FSU then I seriously doubt he's going to be improving, it's just something he can't do. Some linemen have naturally quick feet, some WRs have natural hands, some FSs have a natural ability to locate objects in the air once they turn their head from one point to the other. Watkins seems to be missing this and it's something that is critical.

I am only a fan and I dont count myself as "credible."

The only reason I asked who you were was you sounded as if you had some self-proclaimed credibility with the whole "you dont know who I am for A and B reasons."

Even I took it the wrong way, which I dont think I did, then my bad.

Your systems intrigues me though and wouldnt mind seeing it... I am curious how you rated the past 5 draft classes of secondary players and how well they have actually performed.

If you didnt fudge the numbers and were fairly accurate then you are obviously in the wrong place for there are may organizations that would pay well for an intelligent scout.

As for Watkins once again, I love how quickly one is too judge the kid after his very imited playing time. Your opinion on his ball-seeking ability only has 1 play that I can recall which supports your statement... which RW could have erased if not picked by bad positioning of the ref in centerfield. Maybe the flea flicker play against Philly but I honestly dont remember that clearly.

[masomenos]

Originally Posted by smarta5150

I am only a fan and I dont count myself as "credible."

The only reason I asked who you were was you sounded as if you had some self-proclaimed credibility with the whole "you dont know who I am for A and B reasons."

Even I took it the wrong way, which I dont think I did, then my bad.

Your systems intrigues me though and wouldnt mind seeing it... I am curious how you rated the past 5 draft classes of secondary players and how well they have actually performed.

If you didnt fudge the numbers and were fairly accurate then you are obviously in the wrong place for there are may organizations that would pay well for an intelligent scout.

[View Full Quote]As for Watkins once again, I love how quickly one is too judge the kid after his very imited playing time. Your opinion on his ball-seeking ability only has 1 play that I can recall which supports your statement... which RW could have erased if not picked by bad positioning of the ref in centerfield. Maybe the flea flicker play against Philly but I honestly dont remember that clearly.

We seem to have a sort of a misunderstanding, I didn't mean "you don't know who I am" in the sense that I indeed was somebody, I just meant I have about 30 posts on the forums so you, indeed, don't know who I am at all. I'm just some new guy. So, I apologize for coming across the wrong way and if you did misunderstand me then it was my fault.

I've been working on my system over the past year though and I only have reliable ratings systems for safeties and WRs right now and I've only been able to take previous combine information and plug it into my system. However I can honestly say that with the formula I could have told you that Skyler Green was a wasted pick with a 53 and that Marques Colston was going to be a steal in the 7th with a grade of 82. However both systems have worked out with every past player I've been able to find information on. They aren't perfectly refined yet, but I've been working on them for a while and they seem to work fairly reliably.

The ball locating issue isn't the only problem I have with Watkins and I honestly can't cite specific plays from last year to identify that problem, but he is also pretty stiff in his hips and he had a poor 20 yard time if I recall correctly. At this point I just believe that he's a player who isn't going to improve that much, he reminds me a lot of Marvin White this year.

Like I said, I'm still working on my grading system but I, obviously, hope to have it done by the draft and I'll be more than willing to shed some light on the system I use at that point. Also, I again apologize, I didn't meant to come across sounding arrogant by saying "you don't know who I am" I just meant I'm new here and have no credibility at all, why should you believe me.

[smarta5150]

Some advice, try not to change your stories around.

Not good for cred

Oh well...

Originally Posted by masomenos85

I do know how many experts are wrong every years, that's why I don't count myself in their ranks. I'm just a fan. I have developed a grading system that has been quite reliable over the past 5 years though and I tend to favor my own prospective scores over others. Since the experts are wrong so often I like to think that people like you and me have AT LEAST as much credibility as them. No?

Originally Posted by masomenos85

I've been working on my system over the past year though and I only have reliable ratings systems for safeties and WRs right now and I've only been able to take previous combine information and plug it into my system. However I can honestly say that with the formula I could have told you that Skyler Green was a wasted pick with a 53 and that Marques Colston was going to be a steal in the 7th with a grade of 82. However both systems have worked out with every past player I've been able to find information on. They aren't perfectly refined yet, but I've been working on them for a while and they seem to work fairly reliably.

[masomenos]

Originally Posted by smarta5150

Some advice, try not to change your stories around.

Not good for cred

Oh well...

Like I said, I've used college stats and combine results for past players to project what their rating would have been, 5 years is about as far back as I've been able to go.

Sorry if that was too abstract for you. ::edit:: and I don't mean that in a sarcastic way, I just mean I'm sorry if it wasn't clear

[cowboyz]

Originally Posted by masomenos85

Like I said, I've used college stats and combine results for past players to project what their rating would have been, 5 years is about as far back as I've been able to go.

Sorry if that was too abstract for you. ::edit:: and I don't mean that in a sarcastic way, I just mean I'm sorry if it wasn't clear

please give your ranking for the cbs and wrs in this draft so we can see how it works out

[masomenos]

Sure thing. I think I said I had safety ratings earlier, not CB, but if I said CB then I meant safety. The CB rankings just started today. I'll post both safety and WR rankings, along with ratings, on Friday as that should be enough time for me to put the final tweaks in. Some things that won't change very much is that I'll go on record as saying that Dwayne Jarrett is grossly overrated, Steve Smith is underrated, Sidney Rice will never be explosive enough to get great seperation in the NFL (although he could be a good redzone WR), Johnnie Lee Higgins is one of the better prospects, and Dallas Baker could be a huge steal if he goes where people are projecting. Laron Landry is a tad overrated and shouldn't be a top 10 pick, Michael Griffin is the best safety prospect in the draft, and Brandon Meriweather could have a lot of trouble in coverage in the NFL.

Full results, and even explanations if you want, on Friday.

[Avery]

The flip-flopped picks in the top five make no sense. Why would Cleveland trade up for Russell? Why would Arizona trade up to nab Thomas with Tampa Bay?

Kirwan sucks.

[TDH]

Originally Posted by masomenos85

Sure thing. I think I said I had safety ratings earlier, not CB, but if I said CB then I meant safety. The CB rankings just started today. I'll post both safety and WR rankings, along with ratings, on Friday as that should be enough time for me to put the final tweaks in. Some things that won't change very much is that I'll go on record as saying that Dwayne Jarrett is grossly overrated, Steve Smith is underrated, Sidney Rice will never be explosive enough to get great seperation in the NFL (although he could be a good redzone WR), Johnnie Lee Higgins is one of the better prospects, and Dallas Baker could be a huge steal if he goes where people are projecting. Laron Landry is a tad overrated and shouldn't be a top 10 pick, Michael Griffin is the best safety prospect in the draft, and Brandon Meriweather could have a lot of trouble in coverage in the NFL.

Full results, and even explanations if you want, on Friday.

I couldnt agree with the things you have said about watkins, and if the BPA is a safety at 22, then i agree...we take him. But i disagree respectfully with your opinion. I think (and most "experts" [realize they are often wrong] agree) that merriweather is a far better coverage prospect than griffin. Merriweather could actually play man CB, i dont think griffin could come close to that.

And to Smarta5150's comment "Its a joke that people thought it was a good idea to replace 1 unproven FS with another BEFORE we signed Hamlin and now its an even bigger joke that some people STILL wanna draft a FS @ 22."

- I would say that its ridiculous to say its a joke to replace 1 unproven FS w/ another. REALLY!!! Its a joke to replace 1 unproven 5th Rd FS (who had quite a few games to make a statement if he had wanted to) with a 1st Rd draft pick. That might be the worst logic i have ever seen on this site. ANY DRAFT PICK IS UNPROVEN!!! Why would we want to replace Sam Hurd with Calvin Johnson. I hope Smarta that you can see that it is your logic that is a JOKE!

I'll grant you that after we signed Hamlin (although he still cant cover) FS is less of a need, but if the BPA is available is a FS...then we take him. I would only consider a FS to be the BPA at 22 if it was Nelson.