Originally Posted by jterrell
The separate Thayler article you quoted
has appendices that show relative value. One of the points he plots is 7th round pro bowlers and it is near 0. A closer look from my desktop showed it to be around ~5%. Appeared to be zero on tablet.
Here, let me give you some names, to consider. These guys are 7th rounders, and in the period between 1990 and 2011, managed a pro bowl or two. The number in parentheses are Pro Bowl appearances.
~~~~~ Bleacher Report ~~~~~
TJ Houshmanzedah 2001 (1)
Adam Timmerman 1995 (2)
Brock Marion 1993 (3) (Dallas 7th rounder)
Michael McCrary 1993 (2)
Donald Driver 1999 (3)
Tom Nalen 1994 (5)
Shannon Sharpe 1990 (7)
~~~~~ PFR scan
for others ~~~~~
Johnny Johnson 1990 (1)
Dave Moore 1992 (1)
Gus Frerrote 1994 (1)
Jamal Anderson 1994 (1)
Byron Chamberlain 1995 (1)
Brian Jennings 2000 (1)
Scott Wells 2004 (1)
Jay Raitliff 2005 (4) Dallas 7th rounder
Matt Cassell 2005 (1)
Courtland Finnegan 2006 (1)
Pro Bowl Appearances: 36.
Incidentally, my initial source was the very unreliable Bleacher Report
, but I went ahead and confirmed all these numbers on PFR* or the Wikipedia.
Now, to note, in comparison to the #1 choices over the same time period (much smaller sample to be sure), Shannon has more Pro Bowls than anyone not named Peyton Manning and Orlando Pace.
That said, by 2000, it's as if most of the life has been squeezed out of the 7th round. Measured in Pro Bowls, Jay Raitliff is the best 7th rounder of the 21st century. And whole years can go by without any notable 7th rounders.
As an example, in 2007, Greg Olsen is the 31st pick in the first round, eclipsed by 19 other first rounders, with an AV of 20. Ahmad Bradshaw is the best 7th rounder of 2007, with an AV of 20.
*PFR, particularly, in the post AV era, has very detailed draft charts.