A nontraditional, error oriented view of the draft.

[dwmyers]

Originally Posted by jterrell

I was addressing the specific article you showed which had 0 Pro Bowlers amongst all 7th rounders

Which article I showed re: 7th rounders?

I quote a Pro Football Reference article on AV and another from nfl.com, which was a list of all #1 draft choices, from 1936 forward.

I quote not a single article on 7th rounders.

I do enjoy the statistical analysis pieces like that PFF article

What PFF article? Are you confusing me with someone who quoted a Pro Football Focus article, because I didn't. As far as I can tell, nothing you're saying has anything to do with anything I referenced.

If you would actually pay attention to what I'm saying, then maybe this could be described as a conversation. But you're not, and it isn't.

You know, the references you're alluding to may well exist. But you would be a lot more impressive if you stopped putting words, articles, etc into the mouths of others. It would look as if you knew what you were doing in an argument.

D-

[jterrell]

Originally Posted by dwmyers

Which article I showed re: 7th rounders?

I quote a Pro Football Reference article on AV and another from nfl.com, which was a list of all #1 draft choices, from 1936 forward.

I quote not a single article on 7th rounders.



What PFF article? Are you confusing me with someone who quoted a Pro Football Focus article, because I didn't. As far as I can tell, nothing you're saying has anything to do with anything I referenced.

If you would actually pay attention to what I'm saying, then maybe this could be described as a conversation. But you're not, and it isn't.

You know, the references you're alluding to may well exist. But you would be a lot more impressive if you stopped putting words, articles, etc into the mouths of others. It would look as if you knew what you were doing in an argument.

D-

I'd agree something is getting lost in translation. Probably due to you referencing multiple sources in each post as well as my desire to be brief.
I'll try to be more clear.

PFF was actually PFR. Just an error in my typing on a tablet. Pro-football-reference. Then again if you bothered looking... what I said probably would have made sense. The guy uses 1970 to 1999 for his data.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=527
"I looked at every draft from 1970 to 1999, giving me thirty years of drafts. I then assigned the approximate career value of each player to his rookie draft slot.".

The separate Thayler article you quoted
http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~webfac...p06/Thaler.pdf
has appendices that show relative value. One of the points he plots is 7th round pro bowlers and it is near 0. A closer look from my desktop showed it to be around ~5%. Appeared to be zero on tablet.

Figure 5
Performance statistics, by draft round
page 35.

But again just to be clear my general argument with ALL the sources are this: Not current and/or not applicable to this system of the NFL. Any relative value for a specific draft slot is only accurate for a single point in time.

I do agree a metric would be helpful but using the wrong metric leads to making mistakes and is worse than just going on gut.

You seem to be tying quite a lot of whatever it is you are trying to say to the first overall pick each year. That is complicated by the fact terrible teams seem to draft first overall more often than not. But I'd definitely argue the value for the first overall pick has been excessive compared to performance historically. I won't get into the Thayer psychological reasons there but will note 1st overall picks tend to sale a lot of jerseys and thus have some immediate ticket and merch benefits for terrible franchises often needing it. You know, same way Jerry Jones told Jimmy Johnson we are absolutely 100% taking Troy Aikman. There are purely business reasons why those picks have certain cache. --see the Suck for Luck campaign.

Again if you want to partake in the exercise you go back and take 40 7th round picks from any year but I get to take any 1st round pick. We can compare value. Some years you may pull in a Pro Bowler like Ratliff but every year I'd pick a guy who is at least in the discussion for the Hall of Fame. I.E> in 05 when get Ratliff plus 39 warm bodies I get Demarcus Ware. R1 is simply where the vast majority of the elite talent is. Doesn't mean there aren't misses or busts just that 7th rounders who don't make teams aren't even considered busts, They are considered average.

[dwmyers]

Originally Posted by jterrell

The separate Thayler article you quoted
http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~webfac...p06/Thaler.pdf
has appendices that show relative value. One of the points he plots is 7th round pro bowlers and it is near 0. A closer look from my desktop showed it to be around ~5%. Appeared to be zero on tablet.

Here, let me give you some names, to consider. These guys are 7th rounders, and in the period between 1990 and 2011, managed a pro bowl or two. The number in parentheses are Pro Bowl appearances.

~~~~~ Bleacher Report ~~~~~
TJ Houshmanzedah 2001 (1)
Adam Timmerman 1995 (2)
Brock Marion 1993 (3) (Dallas 7th rounder)
Michael McCrary 1993 (2)
Donald Driver 1999 (3)
Tom Nalen 1994 (5)
Shannon Sharpe 1990 (7)
~~~~~ PFR scan for others ~~~~~
Johnny Johnson 1990 (1)
Dave Moore 1992 (1)
Gus Frerrote 1994 (1)
Jamal Anderson 1994 (1)
Byron Chamberlain 1995 (1)
Brian Jennings 2000 (1)
Scott Wells 2004 (1)
Jay Raitliff 2005 (4) Dallas 7th rounder
Matt Cassell 2005 (1)
Courtland Finnegan 2006 (1)
----------------------------------
Pro Bowl Appearances: 36.

Incidentally, my initial source was the very unreliable Bleacher Report, but I went ahead and confirmed all these numbers on PFR* or the Wikipedia.

Now, to note, in comparison to the #1 choices over the same time period (much smaller sample to be sure), Shannon has more Pro Bowls than anyone not named Peyton Manning and Orlando Pace.

That said, by 2000, it's as if most of the life has been squeezed out of the 7th round. Measured in Pro Bowls, Jay Raitliff is the best 7th rounder of the 21st century. And whole years can go by without any notable 7th rounders.

As an example, in 2007, Greg Olsen is the 31st pick in the first round, eclipsed by 19 other first rounders, with an AV of 20. Ahmad Bradshaw is the best 7th rounder of 2007, with an AV of 20.

*PFR, particularly, in the post AV era, has very detailed draft charts.