You can't lose if you don't play...

[robert70x7]

(33) - Chandler Jones
(45) - Alfonzo Dennard
(53) - Kendall Reyes
(65) - Brandon Brooks
(81) - Ladarius Green
(113) - Antonio Allen
(135) - Danny Coale
(152) - Vontaze Burfict
(186) - David Molk
(222) - Punter

[Doomsday]

1st round game? The game gets harder the longer it goes on. Id rather stay at 14 and take the best player on the board.

[Eskimo]

Originally Posted by anava

It worked in 2009 when we had like 12 draft picks.

In 2009 we had lots of picks but no first round or third round pick due to the Roy Williams trade.

Jerry then traded out of the second round and drafted poorly for this team with the picks he received.

It wasn't the trade down that was flawed - it was the draft strategy of aiming for a "special teams" draft that did us in.

In a draft with this kind of depth but little impact talent at the top I do like the trade down scenario.

There is nothing magical about the first round. There used to only be 28 teams meaning the 29th pick was in the second round and now it is in the first round. Did the 32nd player suddenly become a better football player now that he is selected in the first instead of the second round? It doesn't make any sense.

I really think there is first round value for many players selected between 30-45 in this draft and I'd love to get 2 picks in this range and then throw in 5 more before the 4th round is through for a total of 7 picks instead of our allotted 5.

I think we can get a very high quality OG, OLB and CB in the second round this year who may normally go in the bottom of the first in most drafts if we play our cards right. I think these 3 could be starters before the 2012 season is through.

[Eskimo]

Originally Posted by robert70x7

(33) - Chandler Jones
(45) - Alfonzo Dennard
(53) - Kendall Reyes
(65) - Brandon Brooks
(81) - Ladarius Green
(113) - Antonio Allen
[View Full Quote](135) - Danny Coale
(152) - Vontaze Burfict
(186) - David Molk
(222) - Punter

Please say no to Dennard - he is a project who will likely have to move to Safety. I wouldn't consider him before the 4th round.

[Macnalty]

Originally Posted by robert70x7

(33) - Chandler Jones
(45) - Alfonzo Dennard
(53) - Kendall Reyes
(65) - Brandon Brooks
(81) - Ladarius Green
(113) - Antonio Allen
[View Full Quote](135) - Danny Coale
(152) - Vontaze Burfict
(186) - David Molk
(222) - Punter

I agree with all except Green and Denard think there are better options in you signature Mock than those two.

[sonnyboy]

Originally Posted by Eskimo

In 2009 we had lots of picks but no first round or third round pick due to the Roy Williams trade.

Jerry then traded out of the second round and drafted poorly for this team with the picks he received.

It wasn't the trade down that was flawed - it was the draft strategy of aiming for a "special teams" draft that did us in.

In a draft with this kind of depth but little impact talent at the top I do like the trade down scenario.

There is nothing magical about the first round. There used to only be 28 teams meaning the 29th pick was in the second round and now it is in the first round. Did the 32nd player suddenly become a better football player now that he is selected in the first instead of the second round? It doesn't make any sense.

[View Full Quote]I really think there is first round value for many players selected between 30-45 in this draft and I'd love to get 2 picks in this range and then throw in 5 more before the 4th round is through for a total of 7 picks instead of our allotted 5.

I think we can get a very high quality OG, OLB and CB in the second round this year who may normally go in the bottom of the first in most drafts if we play our cards right. I think these 3 could be starters before the 2012 season is through.

Great minds think alike.

I think I may have started a thread on this recently. Premise was that drafting a true BPA that fills the greatest need is inherently harder, the higher you move up the draft order.

The "gaps" in value between picks 1,2,3 and 4 are greater than picks 33, 34, 35 and 36.

And because the 4th or 10th or even 14th selection has so much more value than the 33rd or 53rd, it's even more critical that the selection is both BPA and need satisfying.

If I were GM, I'd end up trading my 1st round selection both down and up, far more often than I'd find myself executing it. Out of 10 drafts, I could see 5-6 trade downs, 2-3 trade ups and 1-3 selections with the original pick.

Biggest deternmining factor would be where the pick was in Rd 1. Top 10 is more likely to get moved one way or another. Bottom 10 is more likely to get executed.

Of course the next factor is the make up of the team and if there's one glaring need. Especially if that need is at a premium position like QB or Pass Rusher. That's when you're likely to trade up to that spot where you believe the BPA fills that need.

Now for this Cowboys team, I think the signs point to a trade down from 14.

I can't say FS is a greater need than OC. I also can't ignore the fact that we have multiple other needs that are close in the pecking order.

And while we have multiple needs, FA has muted the gravity of those needs. CB was the one above and beyond all other needs and Carr filled that. Last year it was RT and since the draft came before FA, we made sure that critical need was filled at pick 9.

So in a nutshell, I'm not seeing was absolutely must have need to be filled.

OMT For what it's worth, theteam did come out and say they were looking to find 3 starters out of this draft class.......that's a tall order.

Question is, are we more likely to find three starters with our current picks or would we be more likely with 4 selections between picks 33 and 65?

[jobberone]

This is a great draft to trade down in. Deepest draft in years. I'm all for picking up an extra pick or two in the 2nd or 3rd.

[Eskimo]

Originally Posted by sonnyboy

Great minds think alike.

I think I may have started a thread on this recently. Premise was that drafting a true BPA that fills the greatest need is inherently harder, the higher you move up the draft order.

The "gaps" in value between picks 1,2,3 and 4 are greater than picks 33, 34, 35 and 36.

And because the 4th or 10th or even 14th selection has so much more value than the 33rd or 53rd, it's even more critical that the selection is both BPA and need satisfying.

If I were GM, I'd end up trading my 1st round selection both down and up, far more often than I'd find myself executing it. Out of 10 drafts, I could see 5-6 trade downs, 2-3 trade ups and 1-3 selections with the original pick.

[View Full Quote]Biggest deternmining factor would be where the pick was in Rd 1. Top 10 is more likely to get moved one way or another. Bottom 10 is more likely to get executed.

Of course the next factor is the make up of the team and if there's one glaring need. Especially if that need is at a premium position like QB or Pass Rusher. That's when you're likely to trade up to that spot where you believe the BPA fills that need.

Now for this Cowboys team, I think the signs point to a trade down from 14.

I can't say FS is a greater need than OC. I also can't ignore the fact that we have multiple other needs that are close in the pecking order.

And while we have multiple needs, FA has muted the gravity of those needs. CB was the one above and beyond all other needs and Carr filled that. Last year it was RT and since the draft came before FA, we made sure that critical need was filled at pick 9.

So in a nutshell, I'm not seeing was absolutely must have need to be filled.

OMT For what it's worth, theteam did come out and say they were looking to find 3 starters out of this draft class.......that's a tall order.

Question is, are we more likely to find three starters with our current picks or would we be more likely with 4 selections between picks 33 and 65?

Many of the concepts you have alluded to here make a great deal of sense. The reason most teams don't want to drop too far down is there is a group of players at the top who look like very low risk future high quality starters. After that group there is then a fairly substantial drop in quality. In this draft that drop-off is somewhere around pick 60 or so, IMO. Usually it's probably somewhere around 23.

The ability to drop back almost certainly will result in better ability to draft BPA at a position of your desire for the reasons you name. Furthermore, I would add that BPAs at non-positions of need become even more clear, though. The other thing to keep in mind is slotting of players becomes much more inconsistent after the first 30 or so guys and at that point you have to follow your instincts about whether a trade needs to be made to secure the player you want and who else might be after them.

As for whether we can find 3 starters in this 2nd round - I think we can definitely find an OLB, DE, OG and CB who will be future starters in this year's second round if we choose to focus our efforts there. I actually think the biggest key is having patience as many of these players may not start until 2013.

[Oh_Canada]

I am not totally opposed to this, so I'll give it a shot:

33) Reyes
(45) McClellin
(53) Silatolu
(65) Crick
(81) Ben Jones
(113)Minnifield
(135)Trenton Robinson
(152)Chapman
(186)Devon Wylie
(222)Koger
*

[Eskimo]

Originally Posted by Oh_Canada

I am not totally opposed to this, so I'll give it a shot:

33) Reyes
(45) McClellin
(53) Silatolu
(65) Crick
(81) Ben Jones
(113)Minnifield
(135)Trenton Robinson
(152)Chapman
(186)Devon Wylie
(222)Koger
*

I don't know about taking two DEs so high when we still have Lissemore, Hatcher and Geathers as youngish guys with some athleticism already on the roster. We might draft one in the first 3 rounds but two would shock me. I think one of those picks should go to OLB because I really don't believe Spencer is on this team come 2013.

The other thing is I think you went CB a little late for my tastes. I really think we should take one before the end of the second because of the high risk of losing Jenkins after this year and the fact that we only have 3 on the roster and Jenkins recovery is still uncertain right now.

I still get upset that everyone wants to draft a Center who may be much worse than the guy we already know can play in this league - Killa Kowalski. You could use that pick on a guy like Brroyles or maybe Brandon Boykin if he falls. I actually really like both of these guys and Crick in the 3rd.

[Eskimo]

33) Mercilus Whitney
(45) Amini Silatolu or Brandon Brooks
(53) Casey Heyward
(65) Jared Crick
(81) Ryan Broyles
(113) Michael Egnew
(135)Jake Bequette
(152) Leonard Johnson
(186) That dropout RB from KSU (#1 recruit in 2009)
(222)Bryan Anger

[Oh_Canada]

Originally Posted by Eskimo

I don't know about taking two DEs so high when we still have Lissemore, Hatcher and Geathers as youngish guys with some athleticism already on the roster. We might draft one in the first 3 rounds but two would shock me. I think one of those picks should go to OLB because I really don't believe Spencer is on this team come 2013.

The other thing is I think you went CB a little late for my tastes. I really think we should take one before the end of the second because of the high risk of losing Jenkins after this year and the fact that we only have 3 on the roster and Jenkins recovery is still uncertain right now.

I still get upset that everyone wants to draft a Center who may be much worse than the guy we already know can play in this league - Killa Kowalski. You could use that pick on a guy like Brroyles or maybe Brandon Boykin if he falls. I actually really like both of these guys and Crick in the 3rd.

McLellin is an OLB, and a good one at that.

I think we, as all fans do grossly overrate our talent. Hatcher is 30 years-old, Lissimore looks like a decent rotational guy with some upside and Geathers is a guy no one else seemed to want all that badly. Couple that with an aging mediocre Spears, and old man Coleman and you have a very average group of ends. NT also needs to be addressed and getting Chapman at that spot would be an affodable luxury with Rat and Brent holding down the fort until he's ready.

I don't see the need of drafting another corner high when chances are he will be the fourth corner at best anyhow. Without a consistent, deep defensive line your corners are marginlized.

Upon reflection I might agree on the center spot and replace the pick with Broyles or Hilton.

[Eskimo]

Originally Posted by Oh_Canada

McLellin is an OLB, and a good one at that.

I think we, as all fans do grossly overrate our talent. Hatcher is 30 years-old, Lissimore looks like a decent rotational guy with some upside and Geathers is a guy no one else seemed to want all that badly. Couple that with an aging mediocre Spears, and old man Coleman and you have a very average group of ends. NT also needs to be addressed and getting Chapman at that spot would be an affodable luxury with Rat and Brent holding down the fort until he's ready.

I don't see the need of drafting another corner high when chances are he will be the fourth corner at best anyhow. Without a consistent, deep defensive line your corners are marginlized.

Upon reflection I might agree on the center spot and replace the pick with Broyles or Hilton.

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that you had forgotten OLB but only pointed out that you took two 3-4 DEs with premium picks.

I do agree the position has been far too neglected here but I really think you are selling Lissemore short. It is much easier to rate a player who is actually out there against NFL talent than a guy playing against college guys and you could see Lissemore out there more and more as the year went on and probably creating more pressure than anyone other than Ratliff. This guy came from a very small college so his rookie year was almost a redshirt year and last year was more like a rookie year. So I expect the same jump from him this year that I would normally expect in a second year player and I believe there is major upside there. The depth part of the equation is that we run four reasonably young guys out there who are under contract the next couple of years so adding one guy this year is enough and maybe we can add another next year or draft a later round project. In my little mock I suggested taking a guy like Bequette as a bit of a project - he is 6-5 and goes about 275. Put him in the weightroom for a year and he could emerge as a 295 pounder with length and agility that we need to run an aggressive 3-4.

Now as for the CB issue we have Carr. Jenkins is hurt - who knows if he is going to even be ready at the start of the season. He had extensive shoulder surgery and that is a very complicated joint prone to complications from major surgeries. The next part to consider is that he is a FA and we may choose not to re-sign him due to injury concerns or cost concerns if he can command a $11M/yr deal in the open market next year. If that is the case we are down to only Carr and Scandrick. As for Scandrick I just don't think he is very good and we should seek to upgrade that position. He is always chasing in man coverage and makes very few plays on the ball even when he is in position. Scandrick best suits a zone-based scheme but this is not what we run and he is a major liability anytime we want press against 3-WR lineups.

I would suggest in the first 3 rounds getting 5 picks through trade downs and trying to come up with 1 DE, 1 OLB, 1 OG, 1 CB and then one other player where value and need match up well - maybe a #3WR/KR, another CB, second TE, Safety, another DE or another OL in roughly that order of preference.

[fanfromvirginia]

I would do it and grab McClellin, Konz, Mercilus, Branch, Zeitler or Glenn, in that order. And then at 45 I'd grab whoever on that list was there (excluding the two guard combo). If none of them drop, it's bpa from then on.

[sonnyboy]

Originally Posted by Eskimo

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that you had forgotten OLB but only pointed out that you took two 3-4 DEs with premium picks.

[View Full Quote]I do agree the position has been far too neglected here but I really think you are selling Lissemore short. It is much easier to rate a player who is actually out there against NFL talent than a guy playing against college guys and you could see Lissemore out there more and more as the year went on and probably creating more pressure than anyone other than Ratliff. This guy came from a very small college so his rookie year was almost a redshirt year and last year was more like a rookie year. So I expect the same jump from him this year that I would normally expect in a second year player and I believe there is major upside there. The depth part of the equation is that we run four reasonably young guys out there who are under contract the next couple of years so adding one guy this year is enough and maybe we can add another next year or draft a later round project. In my little mock I suggested taking a guy like Bequette as a bit of a project - he is 6-5 and goes about 275. Put him in the weightroom for a year and he could emerge as a 295 pounder with length and agility that we need to run an aggressive 3-4.

Now as for the CB issue we have Carr. Jenkins is hurt - who knows if he is going to even be ready at the start of the season. He had extensive shoulder surgery and that is a very complicated joint prone to complications from major surgeries. The next part to consider is that he is a FA and we may choose not to re-sign him due to injury concerns or cost concerns if he can command a $11M/yr deal in the open market next year. If that is the case we are down to only Carr and Scandrick. As for Scandrick I just don't think he is very good and we should seek to upgrade that position. He is always chasing in man coverage and makes very few plays on the ball even when he is in position. Scandrick best suits a zone-based scheme but this is not what we run and he is a major liability anytime we want press against 3-WR lineups.

I would suggest in the first 3 rounds getting 5 picks through trade downs and trying to come up with 1 DE, 1 OLB, 1 OG, 1 CB and then one other player where value and need match up well - maybe a #3WR/KR, another CB, second TE, Safety, another DE or another OL in roughly that order of preference.

Great posts. But don't you feel FS and OC are the top two needs?

As far as the fans who would dislike this approach, I think the reason is simple. They lack patience.