Great Article on 1st round success rate (Case for DeCastro)

[burmafrd]

Originally Posted by StanleySpadowski

Interior linemen make the pro bowl on name recognition moreso than any other position. It's only logical that 1st round picks at those positions make the pro bowl at a higher rate.

Plus interior linemen typically go later in the 1st round, which means more successful teams draft them and more successful teams get more pro bowlers, earned or not.

Does not make a difference. Bottom line is that DeCastro is probably the safest pick in the draft.

And frankly this name recognition is over blown; yes for older players but how do they get there in the first place?

[BehindEnemyLinez]

<<<<<hoping DeCastro is chosen @ 14...

[SDCowboy85]

Originally Posted by BehindEnemyLinez

<<<<<hoping DeCastro is chosen @ 14...

Highly doubt he's still there at 14.

[Galian Beast]

Originally Posted by THUMPER

Moving up for Barron would be a HUGE mistake IMO.

I'd be furious...

[Nation]

The "safe" percentage logic is inherently flawed by the fact that 40 percent of our first round picks in the last decade have made the Pro Bowl. Roy, Newman, Ware and Jenkins have all made it and I think it's a safe bet that Dez and Ty will be there some day as well. If that is your barometer you can't really say Dallas has "missed so many times" when they're hitting at the same rate of the safest position.

Trust the board and take the best player available regardless of position.

[Idgit]

Originally Posted by SDCowboy85

Highly doubt he's still there at 14.

Decastro? Most would be surprised if he weren't.

[Hagman]

Originally Posted by Galian Beast

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/stor...isappointments

In terms of drafting a guard/center there is a 42.8 success rate of centers/guards making the pro bowl at least once if they were drafted in the first round (last 10 years).

The only thing higher is safety and tight end.

When you get into multiple pro bowls:

Guard is 42.8% (Center is 28.5%)

The only thing higher is safety (than center)

Guard/Center seems to be the safest pick in general, and even looking at DeCastro he seems to be the safest pick.

With a team that has missed so many times in the last decade, I'd really appreciate us going for the safest pick/best bet.

John Niland, our first round pick in 1966 (5th overall) made 6 Pro Bowls.

[SDCowboy85]

Originally Posted by Idgit

Decastro? Most would be surprised if he weren't.

He seems to be rapidly gaining popularity.

[cowboysooner]

You can also add there are 3 spots for interior linemen and a very small pool of 1st round picks (like a 1 per year average). Compare that to pass rusher where there are 6-10 picked in the 1st many years and only 2 spots in the pro bowl. Those odds will never balance.

A far better measure would be expected second contract dollars since this is a salary cap world with a supposed efficient market.

[InmanRoshi]

Larry Allen got nominated for a Pro Bowl in 2003 when he was continually benched for bad play. Nate Newton made the Pro Bowl in 1999 as journeyman for the Carolina Panthers and was out of the league a year later. Gurode made the Pro Bowl in 2010, was released and couldn't find a team to offer him a starting position.

I'll echo what's already been said, Pro Bowls is a pretty poor measuring stick for interior OL and almost entirely based on name recognition.

[jterrell]

Case against DeCastro instead of for him.

You can select a Pro bowl Guard no matter where you draft in r1.
You don't need a pro bowl guard at pick 14.

If Dallas takes Fletcher, Barron, Brockers, Ingram, Upshaw this year int he top 22; they can come back next year and draft an OG at say 25 with Pro Bowl ability.

BUT, if they select DeCastro at 14 good friggin luck at 25 trying to find a solid front 7 guy.

[StanleySpadowski]

Originally Posted by InmanRoshi

Larry Allen got nominated for a Pro Bowl in 2003 when he was continually benched for bad play. Nate Newton made the Pro Bowl in 1999 as journeyman for the Carolina Panthers and was out of the league a year later. Gurode made the Pro Bowl in 2010, was released and couldn't find a team to offer him a starting position.

I'll echo what's already been said, Pro Bowls is a pretty poor measuring stick for interior OL and almost entirely based on name recognition.

We're agreeing too much lately. It's starting to scare me a little.

[38 Special]

Originally Posted by InmanRoshi

Larry Allen got nominated for a Pro Bowl in 2003 when he was continually benched for bad play. Nate Newton made the Pro Bowl in 1999 as journeyman for the Carolina Panthers and was out of the league a year later. Gurode made the Pro Bowl in 2010, was released and couldn't find a team to offer him a starting position.

I'll echo what's already been said, Pro Bowls is a pretty poor measuring stick for interior OL and almost entirely based on name recognition.

So Nate Newton went to the pro bowl in 99 because he was a first round interior OL selection?

There's a pretty big disconnect in your logic. Those players earned their name recognition on the field and went to pro bowls late in their careers that weren't justified. They did not go because they were 1st round picks (the current topic of conversation here).

[cowboys2233]

Originally Posted by Galian Beast

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/stor...isappointments

In terms of drafting a guard/center there is a 42.8 success rate of centers/guards making the pro bowl at least once if they were drafted in the first round (last 10 years).

The only thing higher is safety and tight end.

When you get into multiple pro bowls:

Guard is 42.8% (Center is 28.5%)

The only thing higher is safety (than center)

Guard/Center seems to be the safest pick in general, and even looking at DeCastro he seems to be the safest pick.

With a team that has missed so many times in the last decade, I'd really appreciate us going for the safest pick/best bet.

Not sure if this is the best way to define success. Roy Williams fit that mold, we picked him, he made the Pro Bowl. But did he really change the fortunes of our team...at all? Of course, our team sucked for most of his career, but still. A guy like Ed Reed, like Polamalu, those are guys who truly had an impact from the safety position.

With all that said, I'm a BIG fan of drafting offensive and defensive linemen, that's how you truly build a team, from the inside out.

[jterrell]

Originally Posted by 38 Special

So Nate Newton went to the pro bowl in 99 because he was a first round interior OL selection?

There's a pretty big disconnect in your logic. Those players earned their name recognition on the field and went to pro bowls late in their careers that weren't justified. They did not go because they were 1st round picks (the current topic of conversation here).

His point is the pro bowl means next to nothing so isn't a good criterion.

Not hard to follow the logic there.

My logic is even easier to follow. Not a single guard in the playoffs, on the all-pro or pro bowl rosters was selected as high at 14. NONE.

It's like a guy signing a 100 million dollar guaranteed contract then marrying a model without signing a pre-nup and feeling like he made a great deal.... #wasteofresources