Breaking Down the ‘Boys: The real reason for the Cowboys’ offensive struggles - Dallas Cowboys Forum

RS12 · 10-12-2012

The league’s best offensive coordinators work like magicians, using sleight of hand to perpetually confuse defenses. They pass when the defense expects a run, and vice versa. To do that, coordinators must sometimes utilize “sub-optimal” personnel in order to trick the defense. Passing the ball from tight end-heavy, run-oriented formations isn’t inherently advantageous, for example, but it often works because it surprises defenders.

I think Jason Garrett has improved in some areas as a coordinator, but utilizing the element of surprise isn’t one of them. Garrett preaches execution from his players, frequently using his bigger personnel packages to run the ball and the smaller ones to throw it.

The problem is that the Cowboys aren’t the only team on the field. In theory, the offense is at their “best” when passing with four or five receivers on the field, for example, but defenses compensate for various personnel packages, negating any advantage the offense might have owned. Thus, it’s sometimes in the Cowboys’ best interest to pass with no more than two receivers on the field (or, on the flip side, run from pass-oriented packages).

Don’t believe me? Below, I’ve listed the Cowboys’ passing stats that I’ve collected thus far in 2012, broken down by personnel. As a quick refresher, the first number in the personnel package indicates the number of running backs on the field and the second is the number of tight ends. Thus, “22” personnel is two running backs, two tight ends, and a wide receiver, “11” personnel is one running back, one tight end, and three receivers, and so on.

22 – 4 for 5 for 59 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT — 115.8 rating — 11.8 YPA
12 – 8 for 12 for 136 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT – 97.9 rating — 11.3 YPA
21 – 14 for 20 for 199 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT — 114.4 rating — 10.0 YPA
11 – 77 for 110 787 yards, 3 TD, 4 INT — 84.2 rating — 7.2 YPA
10 – 3 for 9 for 33 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT — 5.6 rating — 3.7 YPA

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/20...truggles.html/

RS12 · 10-12-2012

Well written, reasoned, and on the money.

FuzzyLumpkins · 10-12-2012

He gives up on the run because we cannot run the ball? I don't need to count buckets and have excel graphs for know that.

Sleight of hand when Cook and Bernadeau cannot block a weak breeze...

http://sturminator.blogspot.com/2012...down-tfls.html

Diogenes · 10-12-2012

It's stunning to read so many opinions from fans who think we should go 4 and 5 wide a lot more. The only thing I can think of is they want to see Orton play a lot sooner.

Future · 10-12-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diogenes

It's stunning to read so many opinions from fans who think we should go 4 and 5 wide a lot more. The only thing I can think of is they want to see Orton play a lot sooner.

Agreed.

Teams who go 4 and 5 wide have to in order to make mismatches to get guys open. With the weapons we have, we should be going max protect and letting Dez, Miles, and I'd still argue Felix, make plays.

Aven8 · 10-12-2012

Been griping about this this for 6 years with Garrett. We are too predictable. In fact wasn't it Baltimore in the last game at Tx stadium, all the players were saying this. It's been how many years and Garrett isn't learning?

No this isn't a bash on the HC, it's one on the OC. He's lousy at it.

Future · 10-12-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aven8

Been griping about this this for 6 years with Garrett. We are too predictable. In fact wasn't it Baltimore in the last game at Tx stadium, all the players were saying this. It's been how many years and Garrett isn't learning?

No this isn't a bash on the HC, it's one on the OC. He's lousy at it.

I'm pretty sure that Philly said they knew ALL of our hots after the '08 week 17 win-and-in game that we got blown out in.

Diogenes · 10-12-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Future

Agreed.

Teams who go 4 and 5 wide have to in order to make mismatches to get guys open. With the weapons we have, we should be going max protect and letting Dez, Miles, and I'd still argue Felix, make plays.

Not to mention it's a good way to get your QB killed. Especially this team which has enough problems getting it done while in max protect.

Aven8 · 10-12-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Future

I'm pretty sure that Philly said they knew ALL of our hots after the '08 week 17 win-and-in game that we got blown out in.

You are correct. And because Romo is superman half the time he hides a lot of the flaws in the OC. We look like we are a great offense, stats wise, but any casual fan should know its a mirage. We are a mess and have been for years!

**Sarge** · 10-12-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aven8

Been griping about this this for 6 years with Garrett. We are too predictable. In fact wasn't it Baltimore in the last game at Tx stadium, all the players were saying this. It's been how many years and Garrett isn't learning?

No this isn't a bash on the HC, it's one on the OC. He's lousy at it.

Multiple teams have said this over different years.

FuzzyLumpkins · 10-12-2012

How many people have you guys seen in the game threads be able to accurately predict what play is going to be called? i am not talking run/pass. I am talking route combinations/protections/ running plays etc.

I see a lot of people claim that they can predict what is going to be run but i have yet to see anyone put their money where their mouth is and pull it off.

AZBOYZFAN · 10-13-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aven8

Been griping about this this for 6 years with Garrett. We are too predictable. In fact wasn't it Baltimore in the last game at Tx stadium, all the players were saying this. It's been how many years and Garrett isn't learning?

No this isn't a bash on the HC, it's one on the OC. He's lousy at it.

Ya cause Romo never changes any of the plays that Garrett gives him. O in fact hasn't Callahan said for Romo NOT to change the play sooo many times? I thought so

Hoofbite · 10-13-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by FuzzyLumpkins

How many people have you guys seen in the game threads be able to accurately predict what play is going to be called? i am not talking run/pass. I am talking route combinations/protections/ running plays etc.

I see a lot of people claim that they can predict what is going to be run but i have yet to see anyone put their money where their mouth is and pull it off.

That's a pretty high standard.

No to mention whether or not we as fans can do it even if we had all the information available to the team, let alone the broadcast cam, is pretty irrelevant.

If fans can pretty much guess a run or a pass on any given down it's not some large leap of faith to think that opposing players and coaches go a few steps beyond that.

Wolfpack · 10-13-2012

Red has had alot of tells in his formations and personal packs over the years. It's been a weakness that he really hasn't fully solved.

Some self scouting should show that.

ChldsPlay · 10-13-2012

This has been obvious for a long time. I'm anxiously awaiting the next jumbo package attempt that will inevitably gets stuffed up the middle, killing another scoring opportunity.