Football Outsiders: Quick Reads - Cowboys Analysis

[EGTuna]

When the Dallas Cowboys lost four times in five games, it looked like their season was over, but they've now won two in a row to get back to .500 at 5-5. At this point, they have a realistic shot at a postseason berth. They'll need some help to get there, but this is a dangerous team, a dark horse in the NFC that looks like it's about to go on a run. And in the process, they should redeem their unfairly criticized quarterback.

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[jrumann59]

I mean great but what team has he been watching.

[jday]

Originally Posted by EGTuna

When the Dallas Cowboys lost four times in five games, it looked like their season was over, but they've now won two in a row to get back to .500 at 5-5. At this point, they have a realistic shot at a postseason berth. They'll need some help to get there, but this is a dangerous team, a dark horse in the NFC that looks like it's about to go on a run. And in the process, they should redeem their unfairly criticized quarterback.

Read more here

Interesting read, but like the above guy mentioned, it doesn't really seem as though the author has actually watched any of the Cowboys games.

[Yakuza Rich]

Originally Posted by jday

Interesting read, but like the above guy mentioned, it doesn't really seem as though the author has actually watched any of the Cowboys games.

He doesn't technically have to watch games because he's basing it off of metrics. Part of the problem with watching the games is that it can turn what is supposed to be objective analysis into subjective analysis.

I think the problem I have is that if you look at the offensive rankings they have on FO.com, they are pretty decent...7th in passing offense and 19th in rushing offense (yes, you read that correctly).

To me, it sure doesn't feel that way. So by not watching games, they run the risk of being fooled by their data.

Personally, I think they may be overvaluing the strength of schedule too much.

However, it depends on what happens. If they get on a hot streak and go 10-6 on the season, then their metrics at this point in time are likely fairly accurate and we just needed to face a more reasonable schedule. But if the team goes in the tank, then they may have to re-analyze their metrics and models and see where things went wrong or come up with a logical explanation of the discrepancy between their projections and Dallas final results.








YR

[jday]

Originally Posted by Yakuza Rich

He doesn't technically have to watch games because he's basing it off of metrics. Part of the problem with watching the games is that it can turn what is supposed to be objective analysis into subjective analysis.

I think the problem I have is that if you look at the offensive rankings they have on FO.com, they are pretty decent...7th in passing offense and 19th in rushing offense (yes, you read that correctly).

To me, it sure doesn't feel that way. So by not watching games, they run the risk of being fooled by their data.

Personally, I think they may be overvaluing the strength of schedule too much.

[View Full Quote]However, it depends on what happens. If they get on a hot streak and go 10-6 on the season, then their metrics at this point in time are likely fairly accurate and we just needed to face a more reasonable schedule. But if the team goes in the tank, then they may have to re-analyze their metrics and models and see where things went wrong or come up with a logical explanation of the discrepancy between their projections and Dallas final results.








YR

Very valid point here. I completely understand what you are saying and can certainly see how watching the Cowboys might actualy skew ones perception. However, when he predicted the Cowboys getting hot, I truly wondered if he takes in consideration are complete and utter lack of a running game. Despite our offensive prowess on paper, I wonder if he is aware of just how much this offensive line is struggling? Do stats show the lack of focus and discipline this team seems to have. Lastly, I wonder if his stats consider injuries, especially those of the season-ending variety.

[Yakuza Rich]

Originally Posted by jday

Very valid point here. I completely understand what you are saying and can certainly see how watching the Cowboys might actualy skew ones perception. However, when he predicted the Cowboys getting hot, I truly wondered if he takes in consideration are complete and utter lack of a running game. Despite our offensive prowess on paper, I wonder if he is aware of just how much this offensive line is struggling? Do stats show the lack of focus and discipline this team seems to have. Lastly, I wonder if his stats consider injuries, especially those of the season-ending variety.

He is considering the run game. They have the running game ranked 19th. I think that is skewed from the Ravens and 1st Giants game.

Stats don't lie, but many times they give an incomplete look and can be misinterpreted. I believe he's looking at the metrics and has the right idea, but they may be skewed from the Baltimore game and perhaps overvalueing the strength of schedule.

I do think if we can protect the football, we can stick with teams with the defense and special teams. And if we can get some guys healthy, we have a shot. Problem is we already have 5 losses.






YR