Why I Am Looking Forward To Next Season

[big dog cowboy]

Originally Posted by DoomsDayD

It is so damn incredible that people are still making excuses for this team. It absolutely befuddles me as to how people can sit there today and offer any excuse for this team and how they performed this year. Then have the gaul to say they are excited for next year.

I'm excited for next year if for no other reason we get a ton of hurt players back. That's not making any excuses just stating the facts.

[Rynie]

Originally Posted by Zordon

i look forward to next regular season as well.

it's when january comes around that the fun will begin again.

seriously, if romo threw for 6k yds and 50 tds in the regular season does it really mean anything anymore?

Nope, it doesn't. Also, I have become a total romo-hater after last night. Dude has choked too many times. Have tried to defend him, but I No longer have it in me. I knew this would happen. That's Why I'm pessimistic.

[Wood]

Originally Posted by Yakuza Rich

Before I go on, I should first state that this is a long post. I think I have made the points clear, so hopefully it is an easy read. But if you’re not interested, don’t say I didn’t warn you as to the length of the post.

Also, this weekend I spoke to somebody I know is very close to the organization. We discussed a myriad of things, in particular Garrett as the Head Coach. I came away from the conversation with a lot more confidence that Garrett is the right HC for this team. I still want to see him give over the offense to somebody else. But, the conversation hit upon a lot of things I didn’t quite understand and how Garrett is making the entire organization better in the process. Hey, he still has to win games in order to be a good coach. But, this person sold me on the merits of his coaching and why we will eventually win games under him.

[View Full Quote]One more quick note. I am not at all down on Romo for that game. Ogletree screwed up the first INT. The second and third INT’s are on Romo, but the third one was again caused by a bad playcall to counter the blitz, our inability to counter the blitz all night due to playcalling/scheme design/incompetence on the O-Line being able to run block/great play call by Jim Haslett. But, I saw Romo have a great December, improve rapidly as the season went on with all of the injuries and show some real leadership the entire year, even in the loss last night. We need to look to the future at QB, but the future is not 2013 and probably not 2014 either. For now, Romo is not a big issue for this team.

***

Before each season, I have gone over what I call ‘The System of Parity’ that is the NFL. Simply put, I’m trying to identify the future playoff teams based on certain ‘profiles’ the teams fit into.

EACH year, we have certain teams that make the playoffs that:

a) Won their division in the prior year.
b) Had a losing record in the prior year.
c) Were a wildcard team in the prior year.
d) Were a team that went .500+, but miss the playoffs in the prior year.

Here are the percentages of the teams since 1999:

a) 47% (previous year divisional winner)
b) 28% (previous year team with losing record)
c) 57% (previous year wildcard team)
d) 42% (previous year .500+, but no playoff team)

I think A and B are the most interesting of the bunch. ‘A’ means that since 1999, divisional winners are MORE LIKE TO MISS the playoffs than make the playoffs. And depending upon the number of teams with losing records in the prior year, we are likely to see 3-4 of those teams make the playoffs the next season.

Of course, 2012 was a wacky year.

We had 6 of the 8 2011 divisional winners return to the playoffs. Since 1999, the most we had return to the playoffs was 5. That was in the 2004 season for the 2003 divisional winners. Other than that, winning the division has usually been a kiss of death unless you have Peyton Manning or Tom Brady as your Quarterback.

So, why was 2012 different?

1) All of the AFC division winners returned. This is good for Dallas since we are not in the AFC.

2) In each of the last 4 years (2008-2011), we only had 3 of the 8 division winners return to the playoffs. So, we were possibly due for a ‘system overload.’

3) We only had 12 teams with losing records in 2011. Historically, the lower the amount of teams with losing records the MORE LIKELY the division winners will return to the playoffs the next season.
But, it didn’t stop there. 4 of the playoffs teams this year had losing records in 2011 (Seattle, Indianapolis, Washington and Minnesota).

This was a bit odd because we only had 12 teams with losing records. History dictates that only 3 of these teams should have made the playoffs. Instead, 4 made the playoffs.

My main reasoning behind this is that it still part of the ‘after effect’ of the 2010 season when the entire NFC West had a losing record.

But outside of the wacky 2012 season, there is a reason for why the playoff teams are this way. The NFL has created a SYSTEM of parity. The league creates harder schedules for divisional winners. They give the division winners worse draft picks. And they give the worse teams first dibs on players cut from their contract.

***

So, what does this mean for Dallas?

I think it means that we are in better shape to win the Super Bowl in 2013 by NOT winning the division this year.

Granted, I do believe in what Wayne Gretzky once said ‘you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.’ So yes, losing to the Skins hurts. But, it is hardly the end of the world in Cowboys land. Regardless of how badly we want to blow the organization up to smithereens.

Here’s a look at the last 10 Super Bowl winners and what they did in the prior season (in parenthesis)

2011 NY Giants (10-6 missed playoffs)
2010 Green Bay (wildcard team)
2009 New Orleans (8-8 missed playoffs)
2008 Pittsburgh (division winner)
2007 NY Giants (8-8 missed playoffs)
2006 Indianapolis (division winner)
2005 Pittsburgh (division winner)
2004 New England (Super Bowl Champ)
2003 New England (9-7 missed playoffs)
2002 Tampa Bay (wildcard team)

As you can see, 4 of the last 10 winners won their division the prior year. And 2 came from the SpyGate Patriots (w/Brady). One came from Peyton Manning. And the other 2 came from the Steelers and Roethlisberger.

The other 6 teams were either wildcard teams or went .500+ and missed the playoffs the prior season.

***

This year we have 16 teams with losing records. The numbers project that 4 of those teams will return to the playoffs.

And like I mentioned, the years there are FEWER teams with losing records historically means it is BETTER for the division winners. But, the opposite is also true. The years with more teams with losing records has been historically more difficult on the division winners.

Furthermore, the lack of success of 2nd year QB’s in the league is astounding (see Cam Newton). Thus, I like our chances against the Redskins whom have a second year QB, won the division and their QB already looks injury prone. In fact, I am much more concerned with the G-Men in 2013 than the Redskins.

So all is not down in Cowboys world. Yeah, it sucks losing to a divisional rival. It would be nice if the NFL would provide us with a more reasonable schedule than have us playing road games at the end of the year. Yeah, you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. But, it is overly optimistic that we would have done something in the playoffs with the M*A*S*H unit we have out there.

And I really believe that this team is not that far away from reaching football nirvana. We desperately need to improve the safety play. We need to improve a lot at RT. We need our running game to get much better and we need to stay healthy. But, it sure beats needing a new QB or pass rushers or 2 new corners or new WR’s, etc.

There is no reason why this team can’t be ultimately successful in 2013 if they play their cards right (insert your "Jerry is incompetent" remarks) and get a little bit of luck on our side.



YR

I think this analysis would have more weight last year. Now its just a trend for dallas to just miss playoffs.

[arglebargle]

Thanks YR! The statistics part, I will take your word on. Nice to hear that report from the inside though. Especially with the informed pessimists being even more pessimistic than usual and the knee jerk crowd doing the can-can.

[Cowboyz88]

YR,

As someone else asked (but you didn't quite address), there aren't too many key holdovers from the Wade era, so it safe to assume that Felix, Jenkins, Scandrick, Rat, Spears, Sensi, Ware, Romo, Spencer, Witten, Free are the guys who Garrett will eventually be moving out or, at least, looking for their eventual replacements?

To me, I think it's a given that Felix, Jenkins, Rat, Spears and Free are 90-100% gone.

I think Scandrick, Sensi and Spencer are on the fence or very soon to be gone (within the next two seasons) with Spencer being the one wild card.

Finally, I think the team (read: Garrett) likes/needs/appreciates Ware and Romo but realize that they may be getting long in the tooth and that they would sooner rather than later find their replacement. I also think they may HAVE to keep them given their vital positions, but would rather go in another direction if circumstances allow.

Finally I think Witten is the one guy they'd prefer to let retire a Cowboy.

[DandyDon1722]

Rich...

I have to say I am riveted by this entire thread. As you can imagine, it's a pretty brutal day considering the way we lost was the worst possible nightmare but the things you have written about Garrett and his approach to players explains some of the culture change we have seen and made the team more mentally tough.

I am fascinated by the insights you received as to the players and their practice and play habits. Based on your writings though the big elephant in the room with Garrett now is this...

As someone who constantly defends Romo (to you many times) now I am concerned as to how Garrett approaches the mental state of the team as it relates to Romo and Tony himself. Protecting against a pick late in the game against New England in order for the team to mentally negate that type of a loss is one thing. Throwing three picks for the NFC East is another. I think there are different kinds of losses and last night couldn't have played out any worse.

I wonder how JG approaches this. How does that get rectified by the players and what is the mindset now after what happened? Anyhow I just wanted to say once you wade through the emotional drive-by comments it has been a great and interesting thread.

Well done.

[CoCo]

I'll start by echoing DandyDon1722 and say, good thread if you can sift through the noise.

I'll also say I've been watching for your "predictions follow-up". Can't say that I disagree with your "parity premise", but I find myself far more interested in what we do in roster & coaching changes than when our turn in the cycle comes up (my off-handed term, not yours).

Lastly, I suspect you're encouraged because you've now heard 1st hand from an insider what has been reported for sometime regarding Garrett. I would be too. Its tough to sit and trust when the outside view is pretty limited. So thanks for sharing.

[pancakeman]

Originally Posted by Yakuza Rich

Look at the teams that had losing records in 2011, but went to the playoffs this year.

Minnesota (Ponder)
Washington (RG3)
Seattle (Wilson)
Indianapolis (Luck)

All QB's one would consider at least decent and all went to the playoffs.

No, Ponder sucks. But the rest of your points hold!

[TwoDeep3]

Originally Posted by Risen Star

Well, I'm always looking forward to the next football season but I can't tell you I'm optimistic about the Cowboys' chances until I see what they do in the offseason.

What they did last offseason didn't work. Now they need to get serious and address the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. You're not going to fix it all in one offseason but you can do enough to compete next year.

This is where I am as well. Thanks RS for your continued sound judgment and postings.

[5Stars]

Originally Posted by TwoDeep3

This is where I am as well. Thanks RS for your continued sound judgment and postings.

What about my sound posts?

[yimyammer]

Originally Posted by Yakuza Rich

If you knew who it was, I think you would feel foolish about saying that.






YR

I guess you'd have to be the dodger if I was to ask who this is or would I have to take a wild hair of a guess?

[TwoDeep3]

Originally Posted by Yakuza Rich

Here’s a look at the last 10 Super Bowl winners and what they did in the prior season (in parenthesis)

2011 NY Giants (10-6 missed playoffs)
2010 Green Bay (wildcard team)
2009 New Orleans (8-8 missed playoffs)
2008 Pittsburgh (division winner)
2007 NY Giants (8-8 missed playoffs)
2006 Indianapolis (division winner)
2005 Pittsburgh (division winner)
2004 New England (Super Bowl Champ)
2003 New England (9-7 missed playoffs)
2002 Tampa Bay (wildcard team)

As you can see, 4 of the last 10 winners won their division the prior year. And 2 came from the SpyGate Patriots (w/Brady). One came from Peyton Manning. And the other 2 came from the Steelers and Roethlisberger.

The other 6 teams were either wildcard teams or went .500+ and missed the playoffs the prior season.

***

[View Full Quote]There is no reason why this team can’t be ultimately successful in 2013 if they play their cards right (insert your "Jerry is incompetent" remarks) and get a little bit of luck on our side.

YR

The bolded part is the important part.

Parity is a lovely word which has no meaning in this case. Sorry, but for far too long Dallas fans have made excuses why the team is still just middle of the road. Listing teams prior to their Super Bowl seasons is a feel good approach that bears no fruit since nothing is ever the same about teams in this league.

Outside of the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucs, what do the others have in common?

Top flight quarterbacks.

Now that can be argued several ways. On the one hand you can argue about every one of those guys. Or argue that stats say Romo should be on that list. But how many of them have the reputation - deserved or not - that he chokes in the clutch?

Not one on the list below.

So go through the list from earliest to latest.

Brady
Brady
Rapesmysister
Manning P.
Manning E.
Rapesmysister
Brees
Rodgers
Manning E.

So all the 8-8 and hoopla you list ignores that these are the top quarterbacks in the league year-in and year-out.

And your excuse making for Romo is the same as it always is from fans here. He throws a pick and the fans begin the reconstruction of why it was picked and in every scenario it comes up to be someone else that was at fault.

The Jets game opening day last year had Romo fumble at a crucial time and throw the same pick he threw in Pittsburgh a few years before - roll right and ignore the cornerback.

This board went ballistic trying to rewrite history by saying it was the blocked punt that lost the game.

It was not then, and Ogletree is not why Romo threw the pick last might.

We can discuss the failure of Dallas because of the defense. In some regard that has legs since the defense does cave at times. But this is a game of team, and it takes two pretty solid units to win.

So it comes back to talent acquisition, coaching, and the players. No earth shattering information there.

GM is a constant and its lack of building the right team is evident to anyone.

Coaching is another area that is a concern. Regardless of your inside source and the wonderful things said about Garrett, he still did not make a simple adjustment to the blitz all night.

If they are coming from the back side, then put people in motion and move the two tight end set to the left side of the line.

Haslet made an adjustment and tried to overwhelm Romo from his blind side. Garrett did NOTHING to counter that move.

So all the hosanna and halleluiah about Garrett ignore he is a step late in his thinking.

But with all the talk about how talented this team is, let's ask the question, is it really?

Austin seems to get hurt at the wrong times. Regardless of the injury and how it occurred there is a portion of the season that Austin is on the sidelines. This is SUPPOSED to be the deep threat. The team doesn't have the speed he has anywhere else that can be counted on.

Dez is a possession receiver that has the ability to break them for TDs, but the passes usually are intermediate and he out muscles the defender. But last night he had no help on the other side and this team did not have the one guy who could challenge Hall and force a double team.

The Offense Line was built on spare parts because the GM did not do his diligence over the last four years and quietly draft solid linemen. He lives under the philosophy that finding wounded players who should have been drafted higher is the ticket. Taking players that were not more than mediocre from other teams cast-offs because a change of locale can sometimes make them better is continually not working.

No block - no win. It is simple as that.

Murray has one more year and then he will be considered an injury waiting to happen. His ability to move the chains makes the team better. But if he has Austinitis and cannot stay on the field, he could be Walter Payton and it wouldn't matter.

Felix is now a wasted pick. He brings nothing to the table.

The Tight Ends are special. Hannah will be special if we have a coach that can exploit their abilities.

Tony Romo is a guy that is asked to do too much because people see gaudy stats and seem to forget when the lights are the brightest, he tries too hard and makes poor decisions. Make him a bus driver and he will bring home the trophy.

Ask him to be John Elway in the Cleveland game, forcing him to make the winning drive, and you get a pick on a screen that should never have been thrown.

So this is your problem.

GM - big problem - incompetent, arrogant, doesn't learn from his mistakes
coaching - fairly big problem - slow on the up tick, and doesn't learn from his mistakes
players - fairly big problem, not as much talent as people think

And in all that, it comes back to the GM that meddles because he has to be involved as the final arbiter of every decision. And that wrecks the chain of command.

So all the what ifs about the other teams has nothing to do with this dysfunctional team. From top to bottom the Dallas Cowboys are an average team, have been for fourteen years for the most part, and will continue to be so as long as the organization is run as it is.

[TwoDeep3]

Originally Posted by 5Stars

What about my sound posts?

You have a skill level when using Smilies that goes far beyond anything I have ever witnessed. I look forward to your Smilie posts because they are an art form unto themselves.

I was remiss not bringing you into the conversation.

I am ashamed.

[Yakuza Rich]

Originally Posted by phildominator

What if the Redskins (god forbid) won the Super Bowl this year? You said that Super Bowl winners almost always return to the playoffs the next year. Does that improve, worsen or neither in 2013's chances?.

2012 has been a wacky year and in statistics we would just chalk it up as an anomaly (but, we would still delve into the reasons for the anomaly).

That being said, the odds for the Skins are not good.

The last rookie QB to go to the Super Bowl was David Woodley...back in 1982.

From an anecdotal viewpoint, I think the Seahawks match up very well with them, although Wilson is another rookie and being on the road for him is a bit scary. I also think the Niners match up well with them and they already lost to the Falcons at FedEx.

If the Redskins win the Super Bowl, they would be a completely anomaly in themselves since we have not had a rookie QB win the Super Bowl in so long. So all bets would be off. However, if I had to guess, their odds are not good because you're looking at a 9-7 team that got hurt in the salary cap by the penalty that is now drafting last with a rookie QB that appears to going to have to fight injuries his entire career because of his style of play.

I also believe that when a team wins a Super Bowl, ALL of the teams in the league become focused on finding ways to stop that team or figure out why they are successful.







YR

[Yakuza Rich]

Originally Posted by TwoDeep3

The bolded part is the important part.

Parity is a lovely word which has no meaning in this case. Sorry, but for far too long Dallas fans have made excuses why the team is still just middle of the road. Listing teams prior to their Super Bowl seasons is a feel good approach that bears no fruit since nothing is ever the same about teams in this league.

No, parity does have a meaning in this case. It helps explain the Cowboys' past successes and failures. You remind me of the people who thought I was 'nuts' for projecting the Eagles to not make the playoffs last year because Andy Reid was supposedly the greatest thing since Lombardi and the Eagles were such a great organization of providing a covenant for dog killers. But as I mentioned with my reasoning as to why this year's Cowboys didn't project to make the playoffs...the numbers didn't work in their favor. Why? The NFL is a system of parity. The Eagles won the divison in 2010, it simply becomes much harder to just make the playoffs the following year.

Again, since 1999 only 47% of the divisional winners have returned to the playoffs the following year. In fact, in the last 5 years, only 18 of the 40 division winners returned to the playoffs the following year...that's 45%.

Think about what that is saying...

You are MORE LIKELY TO MISS the playoffs the following year if you win the division.

And look at the Dallas teams over the years:

2003 (made playoffs, 5-11 the prior year)

2004 (6-10, made playoffs in 2003)

2005 (9-7 missed playoffs despite 6-10 in 2004)

2006 (9-7 made playoffs)

2007 (13-3, wildcard team previous year)

As we can see a trend developing that is *right in line* with the rest of the league. Get a couple of .500+ years but avoid winning the division, 2007 is the big year).

Then...

2008 (9-7, miss playoffs)

We won the division and immediately went back down.

But...

2009 (11-5, win division)

Gee, right in line with the rest of the league. And then...

2010 (6-10)

Then we get up to 8-8 in 2011 and now 8-8 in 2012.

We are not immune to the parity of the NFL. The only teams that have been immune are the Patriots and whatever team Peyton Manning plays on. And to a lesser extent, the Steelers.

We can't rest on the fact that the projections suit us better. Obviously, the team has personnel issues that have to be greatly improved. And if there is something discouraging, I don't have a lot of confidence in the organization winning the division and making the playoffs the following year. I would love to see the organization overcome that, but I have extreme doubts that they can do it.

But, whether you or I or anybody else likes it, there is a system of parity created in the NFL and it rears its ugly head or it helps a moribund franchise.





YR