Salary Cap Estimate for 2013

[AbeBeta]

Originally Posted by jterrell

Carr:
We gave him 10m last year and thus eat 2m of that this year regardless.
If we take his 14 and convert that to bonus he is still due another ~3m this year in pro-rated. So he is at 5 m without a base salary. That is also without any workout or reporting bonuses that almost always exist in these big deals.

The 5.9 m is the lowest possible cost and presumes a lot of things we do not know to be true. Again, as I stated, the rosy outlook on it. My guess is his cap hit this year is at least 7m and probably more in the 7.75 range.

Truth is we may well want to cut Carr in a season or two. Now in a Tampa 2 4-3 we may want to shift dollars to other positions and get cheaper at CB.

I doubt that reporting and workout bonuses are going to hit the mill to 1.75 mill mark. You can argue that the numbers might be 100k higher but 1.75 mill is off the mark.

Carr isn't going anywhere. The Tampa 2 can get by with corners who can't cover -- but it really thrives with guys that are great in coverage. Barber, Tillman -- those sort of guys could play in any defense, just like Carr.

Originally Posted by jterrell

Connor: I assume he is cut but in this 4-3 we may want to keep him. We owe him money either way as he got a short term deal with a bonus. Cutting him doesn't save us much money really. Not enough to warrant cutting him and replacing him with a veteran of more than a year or two. If he were outplayed by Caleb or some such of course we could cut him. But Ernie Sims over Connor is a break even deal money-wise at best.

That's just not accurate. Cutting Connor saves us 3 mill dollars. Is anyone giving Sims a $3 mill deal next year? Highly doubt that.

Originally Posted by jterrell

Sensy: He had 8m in guaranteed money in his deal. If we hand him his 3m this year as a bonus he has only 4 years left to divide it up. So he will cost about 2.5M or so again minimum assuming he hit zero incentive pay marks and had zero reporting or attendance bonuses built in.

When we convert salary to bonus we routinely add an option year to allow the money to be spread over the full 5 year limit. So it is closer to 1.4 mill in that scenario. His deal, if we keep him at all, is prime for that sort of restructure as there is very little bonus money charged against the cap (2.25 mill). He may well get cut though as his remaining guarantee and bonuses are close to wash with his base.

Originally Posted by jterrell

I believe the number is really 10m and that means we have just enough money to franchise Spencer and hold his rights while we negotiate. We'll likely use the Free June 2nd money to pay our rookies so that's a wash all off-season.

We won't really have cap space until we either re-sign or release our hold on Spencer.

Believe what you believe, I expect we will see otherwise.

I do appreciate the perspective you bring though - a far cry from the folks who hear "over the cap" and start flipping out.

[cowboysooner]

Originally Posted by AbeBeta

I doubt that reporting and workout bonuses are going to hit the mill to 1.75 mill mark. You can argue that the numbers might be 100k higher but 1.75 mill is off the mark.

Carr isn't going anywhere. The Tampa 2 can get by with corners who can't cover -- but it really thrives with guys that are great in coverage. Barber, Tillman -- those sort of guys could play in any defense, just like Carr.




That's just not accurate. Cutting Connor saves us 3 mill dollars. Is anyone giving Sims a $3 mill deal next year? Highly doubt that.



[View Full Quote]When we convert salary to bonus we routinely add an option year to allow the money to be spread over the full 5 year limit. So it is closer to 1.4 mill in that scenario. His deal, if we keep him at all, is prime for that sort of restructure as there is very little bonus money charged against the cap (2.25 mill). He may well get cut though as his remaining guarantee and bonuses are close to wash with his base.




Believe what you believe, I expect we will see otherwise.

I do appreciate the perspective you bring though - a far cry from the folks who hear "over the cap" and start flipping out.

I think Free and Conner know that their base money has to be at least cut in half for either to make the team next year. I would not pay Free $2mm and that is probably a minimum number to retain him.

I can't think of another player whose play just dropped so drastically while being asked to do the same thing.

[jterrell]

Originally Posted by cowboysooner

I think Free and Conner know that their base money has to be at least cut in half for either to make the team next year. I would not pay Free $2mm and that is probably a minimum number to retain him.

I can't think of another player whose play just dropped so drastically while being asked to do the same thing.

Connor could easily retire.
He has no real need to play for the minimum unless it is his hearts desire.

He could easily retire, skip this off-season then get a call when a team is desperate for a starter and he jumps in at 1m anyway.

For Free he makes 7m in base. If he took 2m here he'd be certifiably insane. His contract is easier to cut then to restructure. If he has to make 2m this year he would want to do so on a 1 year deal where he could hit the bank big in 2014.

We'd love him to give us back 16m but that isn't gonna happen. If we want him we either pay him his base in a restructure, ask him to eat a small amount of loss or let him walk.

How often have guys taken actual pay cuts? It's really rare. Just hard to make that work once under a current contract. Much easier to start over with a new deal. That's why you see more released then resigned deals then straight pay cuts.

[xwalker]

Originally Posted by jterrell

Carr:
We gave him 10m last year and thus eat 2m of that this year regardless.
If we take his 14 and convert that to bonus he is still due another ~3m this year in pro-rated. So he is at 5 m without a base salary. That is also without any workout or reporting bonuses that almost always exist in these big deals.

The 5.9 m is the lowest possible cost and presumes a lot of things we do not know to be true. Again, as I stated, the rosy outlook on it. My guess is his cap hit this year is at least 7m and probably more in the 7.75 range.

Here are the more exact calculations for the restructures. The ballpark estimates were off by 1.9M for the 8 players.

As the thread title indicates, the original post was an estimate. The point is that the Cowboys are not 20M or 30M over the cap as has been reported multiple times.

[Hoofbite]

Adams being such a tease. I know you see the bat signal, good sir. Grab your cape and cowl pronto.

[jterrell]

Originally Posted by AbeBeta

I doubt that reporting and workout bonuses are going to hit the mill to 1.75 mill mark. You can argue that the numbers might be 100k higher but 1.75 mill is off the mark.

Carr isn't going anywhere. The Tampa 2 can get by with corners who can't cover -- but it really thrives with guys that are great in coverage. Barber, Tillman -- those sort of guys could play in any defense, just like Carr.




That's just not accurate. Cutting Connor saves us 3 mill dollars. Is anyone giving Sims a $3 mill deal next year? Highly doubt that.



[View Full Quote]When we convert salary to bonus we routinely add an option year to allow the money to be spread over the full 5 year limit. So it is closer to 1.4 mill in that scenario. His deal, if we keep him at all, is prime for that sort of restructure as there is very little bonus money charged against the cap (2.25 mill). He may well get cut though as his remaining guarantee and bonuses are close to wash with his base.




Believe what you believe, I expect we will see otherwise.

I do appreciate the perspective you bring though - a far cry from the folks who hear "over the cap" and start flipping out.

the short answer is we will see.
the longer answer is we will see. lol.

again we are both making assumptions... yours are just rosier.

the tampa 2 cover 2 teams want to pay CBs far less. They value them far less. of course when they land a stud and he is a key part of the defense they try to keep them. barber has made 7m the past two seasons in tampa bay combined. they like him but they aren't trying to pay him 10m a year either.
chicago is paying tillman because he makes a ton of plays. but they look hard at his salary every year because it is tough to fit everything you need in their 4-3 with a high priced CB.
teams generally do not pay top dollar to cb running those schemes.

teams with man press principles in fact do pay top dollar at cb.

it is one of the biggest differences in the systems.
you can go get CBs who are great in small areas and they do not need to be able to man cover for 40 yards.

i think most cowboys fans will tell you they'd prefer sims over connor. nfl teams might not be quite there but sims seemed to earn more than the 850k he'd make at a minimum this year. unlike connor he can actually cover people. sadly he doesnt tackle very well at all.

[jterrell]

Originally Posted by xwalker

Here are the more exact calculations for the restructures. The ballpark estimates were off by 1.9M for the 8 players.

As the thread title indicates, the original post was an estimate. The point is that the Cowboys are not 20M or 30M over the cap as has been reported multiple times.

Not trying to argue you down or abuse you in anyway.

This is and has been good work.
I am guarding against going too far in the opposite direction from 20m over to 20m under when that isn't very likely even if it is remotely possible.

You know as well as I we'll have 1000000 posts suggesting we sign the top 5 free agents available as is. Just trying to keep expectations set reasonably.

We already get mock drafts where we select 5 of the top 70 players....

[InmanRoshi]

FWIW, Broaddus says he thinks Connor is the only salary cap casualty we'll see.

I would pretty surprised if Spears isn't cut, considering he's got a $2 million base, supposedly degenerative knees and not a clear cut position in Kiffin's defense. Even if it's not a ton of cap savings, we'll have to purge some existing players to make room for additions.

[dogberry]

If Connor is cut, on the current roster is Albright the leader for SAM?

[cowboysooner]

Originally Posted by InmanRoshi

FWIW, Broaddus says he thinks Connor is the only salary cap casualty we'll see.

I would pretty surprised if Spears isn't cut, considering he's got a $2 million base, supposedly degenerative knees and not a clear cut position in Kiffin's defense. Even if it's not a ton of cap savings, we'll have to purge some existing players to make room for additions.

I think they will keep guys around until after the draft or perhaps even a training camp cut. There may not be a reason to cut Free now, if we are not going to be active in free agency due to the upcoming Romo, Bryant, maybe Murray and Lee contracts.

There is just no reason to pay Doug Free $7mm. If Houston cut Eric Winston who is a far superior right tackle over a $5.6 mm base, why would we keep Free for good left tackle money?

[Hoofbite]

Originally Posted by InmanRoshi

FWIW, Broaddus says he thinks Connor is the only salary cap casualty we'll see.

I would pretty surprised if Spears isn't cut, considering he's got a $2 million base, supposedly degenerative knees and not a clear cut position in Kiffin's defense. Even if it's not a ton of cap savings, we'll have to purge some existing players to make room for additions.

I hope he's considering Free a "performance cut" then.

[InmanRoshi]

Originally Posted by dogberry

If Connor is cut, on the current roster is Albright the leader for SAM?

Probably Albright and Wilbur in open competition. You could also probably get a Rocky McIntosh or Kirk Morrison or Geno Hayes for pretty cheap on the FA market. I dunno, considering Kiffin had dominating units with Ian Gold, Ryan Nece and Al Singleton at SLB, I don't really consider it to be a linchpin position of the defense.

[Bluefin]

Originally Posted by Bluefin

Bryan Broaddus feels Dallas will keep Doug Free by converting most of his 2013 base salary ($7M) into another signing bonus.

I listened to Talkin' Cowboys a little earlier today and Bryan Broaddus talked about Doug Free and other players (Jason Witten, Demarcus Ware) having clauses in their contracts that allow the team to automatically restructure.

So Broaddus thinks Free is staying and the team will just convert a large portion of his 2013 base salary ($7M) into another signing bonus.

I don't see that happening.

Here's the thing, Free's 2012 base salary ($6M) was already guaranteed, so there was no reason not to restructure it to get more salary cap room.

Free has either $8.35M or $8.99M in remaining pro-rated bonus money depending on if the 2012 restructure was spread over 3 or 5 seasons.

Free's $7M base salary next season isn't guaranteed, so doing another restructure would be adding more guaranteed money instead of shifting it around so that it counts differently on the cap.

Going by what was done last year ($6M base dropped to $1.2M with $4.8M turned into a new signing bonus), Free's $7M base salary this year would drop to $1.7M and the remaining $5.3M would convert to another signing bonus.

I don't see any chance the team will add $5.3M more in guaranteed money to Free's contract after what we've seen the past two seasons.

[jterrell]

Originally Posted by InmanRoshi

FWIW, Broaddus says he thinks Connor is the only salary cap casualty we'll see.

I would pretty surprised if Spears isn't cut, considering he's got a $2 million base, supposedly degenerative knees and not a clear cut position in Kiffin's defense. Even if it's not a ton of cap savings, we'll have to purge some existing players to make room for additions.

Spears will benefit from the move to a 4-3. He is clearly just a rotational guy but he can be a 20/30 snap a game guy and we need bodies badly now along the DL. With Brent's issue we are sorely lacking along the DL anyway. Coleman is better player than Spears but he is a pure 3-4 DE.

Spears is really very cheap. And he can probably play some SDE and some 3 technique. Neither at some high level but both at a legit NFL journeyman level.

I do think Spears could be in trouble if we draft a guy early and then sign a cheap FA.

But as pure numbers go he almost has to stay for now. We have like 6 signed DL total. We need to take 10 to Camp and probably want 8 or 9 on the final roster.

[Bluefin]

Originally Posted by InmanRoshi

FWIW, Broaddus says he thinks Connor is the only salary cap casualty we'll see.

I would pretty surprised if Spears isn't cut, considering he's got a $2 million base, supposedly degenerative knees and not a clear cut position in Kiffin's defense. Even if it's not a ton of cap savings, we'll have to purge some existing players to make room for additions.

Agreed on Marcus Spears.

A straight release would only save $600K next season, but Spears' entire $3.7M and $4.7M cap numbers the following years.

Using the June 2nd rule would save $2M next season, which could be used for signing the draft class, $2.3M in 2014 and the full $4.7M in 2015.

I don't think Lawrence Vickers is safe, either.

He isn't expensive ($1.3M), but $1.2M is recoverable base salary and for all the posts about poor OL play last season, FB was also to blame, IMO.

Originally Posted by dogberry

If Connor is cut, on the current roster is Albright the leader for SAM?

I guess?

Alex Albright doesn't have the speed that is so coveted in Monte Kiffen's scheme. That goes for Kyle Wilber, too.

Big 3-4 OLBs don't fit the profile for 4-3 Tampa 2 OLBs.

Both would be two down players only and come off the field for passing situations unless also getting tabbed as Nickel rush ends.

One or both might move back to DE, we'll just have to wait and see.