Super Bowl Teams & The NFL Quarterback Fallacy

[Ntegrase96]

Originally Posted by Future

That's the difference, and I think he does it all the time.

Like I said, I don't think he's perfect, but no QB in this environment could be. And, because of the ineptitude of the team around him, every mistake he makes becomes more significant because nobody ever picks up any slack.

I don't disagree with anything you said. Well, other than the 'all the time' aspect of it all... I don't think it's all that often.

Romo sometimes creates some magic and wins games for us. So, yeah, sometimes when he makes a mistake (Missing Miles on that throw against the Giants for example), his mistake is amplified.

I don't think that the Cowboys are very good without Romo in the W/L column.

But then again, as much as Romo has the ability to elevate the team, he also has an uncanny knack for making mistakes at the worst possible time that can absolutely decimate a team. And when it comes to big games, I feel that his tendency to do the latter is much greater than the former.

[burmafrd]

Originally Posted by Ntegrase96

I don't disagree with anything you said.

Romo sometimes creates some magic and wins games for us. So, yeah, sometimes when he makes a mistake (Missing Miles on that throw against the Giants for example), his mistake is amplified.

I don't think that the Cowboys are very good without Romo in the W/L column.

But then again, as much as Romo has the ability to elevate the team, he also has an uncanny knack for making mistakes at the worst possible time that can absolutely decimate a team. And when it comes to big games, I feel that his tendency to do the latter is much greater than the former.

BUt one could also say that when no one else steps up he feels he has to make a play and that is when he pushes too hard

The Ravens had Pollard step up and kill have the Pats

the 49rs had several guys step up and make plays

How often has this happened with the Boys

Lets see:
Carr against the Steelers
how many others?

[Ntegrase96]

Originally Posted by burmafrd

BUt one could also say that when no one else steps up he feels he has to make a play and that is when he pushes too hard

The Ravens had Pollard step up and kill have the Pats

the 49rs had several guys step up and make plays

How often has this happened with the Boys

Lets see:
Carr against the Steelers
how many others?

You don't have to look too far. Look at the last game against Washington. Dwayne Harris put Romo and the offense into position to get back into the game, then the Defense forced the Redskins to punt giving Romo and the cowboys offense the ideal 4 minute drill with 3 timeouts to get 6.

We all know how that went.

Also the Browns game comes to mind. Spencer forces a strip sack to all but seel the game by giving the Boys great field position for either a TD or FG, and then Romo fumbles... another inexcusable mistake. Then the defense actually holds the Browns out of the endzone only for the Cowboys to play it safe and Romo and crew don't get a first down.

[Wahoo Cowboy]

The fact of the matter is, AT THIS MOMENT there are only 8 QBs active in the NFL who have started in a Super Bowl.

Tom Brady (3-2)
Ben Roethlisberger (2-1)
Eli Manning (2-0)
Peyton Manning (1-1)
Aaron Rodgers (1-0)
Drew Brees (1-0)
Matt Hasselbeck (0-1)
Rex Grossman (0-1)

With two obvious exceptions, this is a who's who list of the "elite" QBs in the NFL. I think those two exceptions are important, though, because they demonstrate the types of QB everyone points to when they say football is the "ultimate team game." Yeah, you can go to a Super Bowl with a pretty good QB in Hasselbeck or even a not very good QB in Grossman. I would compare them to the more oft-cited (because they won) QBs of Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer in terms of their ability, respectively.

But it's clear that, right now, you have a much better chance of getting to and winning a Super Bowl with an "elite" QB. Joe Flacco will join the starting-in-a-SB list in a couple of weeks, and all he's done is win the most road playoff games ever (the ones that, along with those week 17 games, are so unfair to criticize Romo for losing) while throwing 15 TDs and 2 INTs in his last 7 playoff games. Colin Kaepernick, well, I think he's going to be a super star.

What's my point? Do I not think Romo has what it takes? Personally, I still believe he has the skills to go to a SB, and not just as the Hasselbeck or Grossman type. My only hesitation is in him stringing together 3-4 consistent performances against playoff-caliber competition. But let's not pretend that in this "ultimate team game" that there isn't one player far more important than any other. If you want to upgrade the OL to help Romo or think the defense has underperformed, then those are legitimate arguments. However, if Romo is as good as a lot of people here say he is, then he should play in a Super Bowl at some point in his career because that's usually what "elite" QBs do. Even Dan Marino had his chance. If the current pattern continues and he retires without even sniffing a championship game, then it might just be that he wasn't as good as we all thought he was.

[CxC1993]

Excellent & rational post OP.

[percyhoward]

Originally Posted by Wahoo Cowboy

Tom Brady (3-2)
Ben Roethlisberger (2-1)
Eli Manning (2-0)
Peyton Manning (1-1)
Aaron Rodgers (1-0)
Drew Brees (1-0)
Matt Hasselbeck (0-1)
Rex Grossman (0-1)
Let's not pretend that in this "ultimate team game" that there isn't one player far more important than any other.

Here are their records when their team did NOT rank in the top 10 in defensive passer rating or offensive rushing TD:

Tom Brady (0-0)
Ben Roethlisberger (0-0)
Eli Manning (0-0)
Peyton Manning (0-1)
Aaron Rodgers (0-0)
Drew Brees (0-0)
Matt Hasselbeck (0-0)
Rex Grossman (0-0)

[cowboyeric8]

Originally Posted by Clove

Then we should've won a Super Bowl with Drew Henson, based on this concept.

The QB has the ball in his hands 100% of the time on offense. No matter what the defense does, it's the offenses responsibility to score. If you want to take the importance off of the QB just to protect that idiot Romo, then take his MILLIONS away, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't like that.

You can make 1 million THREADS proving anything you want, the FACT IS, Head Coach and QB are the two most important parts of a team.

If a scrub QB wins a Super Bowl, GUESS WHAT? HE WAS GREAT FOR THAT ONE YEAR. Now please close this thread ASAP!!!

Haha somebody upset?

[kelc]

Originally Posted by burmafrd

BUt one could also say that when no one else steps up he feels he has to make a play and that is when he pushes too hard

The Ravens had Pollard step up and kill have the Pats

the 49rs had several guys step up and make plays

How often has this happened with the Boys

Lets see:
Carr against the Steelers
how many others?

I would point out that The Ravens and 9ers QB's stepped up and made plays to.They didn't throw 2 int's in first half.The Skins game was 7-7 till just over 3 minutes in third quarter.Not bad for a injury riddled defense. Did Romo step up and make big plays to help his D.

[Wahoo Cowboy]

Originally Posted by percyhoward

Here are their records when their team did NOT rank in the top 10 in defensive passer rating or offensive rushing TD:

Tom Brady (0-0)
Ben Roethlisberger (0-0)
Eli Manning (0-0)
Peyton Manning (0-1)
Aaron Rodgers (0-0)
Drew Brees (0-0)
Matt Hasselbeck (0-0)
Rex Grossman (0-0)

I took a look at the rushing TD numbers for the years Romo has started, including 2006 but excluding 2010. I also include 10th place, the Super Bowl winner, and the Super Bowl loser afterwards.

2006: 3rd-21, 9th-15 (Two teams tied), 6th-17 (Colts), 11th-14 (Bears)
2007: 10th-14, 10th-14, 7th-15 (New York Giants), 5th-17 (Patriots)
2008: 22nd-12, 10th-17, 11th-16 (Steelers), 18th-14 (Cardinals)
2009: 15th-14, 10th-18, 3rd-21 (Saints), 12th-16 (Colts)
2011: 30th-5, 10th-15, 6th-17 (Giants), 3rd-18 (Patriots)
2012: 27th-8, 9th-16 (Two teams tied), 6th-17 (Ravens), 6th-17 (49ers)

The numbers the last two years have been putrid, but I think this sheds a small bit of light on the idea that Romo has had a terrible OL his entire career. His OL was not bad from 2006-2009, and in those years Dallas either exceeded the amount of rushing TDs of one of the Super Bowl teams or came within 2. The sack numbers bear this out as well, I think; he was sacked 25 times or less every year from 2006-2009 except 2009 (34), and he has been sacked more than 34 times both of the last two years. Hopefully the rebuilt line fares better in 2013, but I think people remember the 2007 playoff second-half and assume it was always bad.

Let's try the same thing with defensive passer rating.

2006: 20th-83.2, 10th-75.9, 15th-80.4 (Colts), 3rd-66.5 (Bears)
2007: 5th-75.1, 10th-77.1, 17th-83.4 (Giants), 11th-78.1 (Patriots)
2008: 20th-86.2, 10th-77.2, 2nd-63.4 (Steelers), 30th-96.9 (Cardinals)
2009: 16th-83.5, 10th-76.4, 3rd-68.6 (Saints), 12th-80.6 (Colts)
2011: 25th-88.4, 10th-80.6, 21st-86.1 (Giants), 20th-86.1 (Patriots)
2012: 29th-94.7, 10th-80.0, 11th-80.6 (Baltimore), 6th-78.0 (49ers)

Outside of 2007, none of these numbers are great. However, I would claim that only 2012 is horrible, as it is the only year we were double-digits away from the "magic line" of 10th place and also the only year in which it was 90+. In addition, every other year Dallas' defensive passer rating was either better than one of the Super Bowl teams or came within 2.9 points.

I don't have an ultimate point to this, and your statistic is true. The only other QB during this time to play in a Super Bowl without being top-10 in one or the other categories is the now-retired Kurt Warner. What it DOES show is that Dallas has performed considerably worse in these metrics the past 2 years than in years prior.

[CowboyRoy]

Originally Posted by Clove

Then we should've won a Super Bowl with Drew Henson, based on this concept.

The QB has the ball in his hands 100% of the time on offense. No matter what the defense does, it's the offenses responsibility to score. If you want to take the importance off of the QB just to protect that idiot Romo, then take his MILLIONS away, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't like that.

You can make 1 million THREADS proving anything you want, the FACT IS, Head Coach and QB are the two most important parts of a team.

If a scrub QB wins a Super Bowl, GUESS WHAT? HE WAS GREAT FOR THAT ONE YEAR. Now please close this thread ASAP!!!

Most important yes. But if the QB doesnt have an Oline or a defense or a head coach where does that leave him?

How about Marino handing off to felix jones with Garrett calling the plays and Free blocking for them. Bwaaaaa!!!!

Oh yah, then connor, Simms, having to shut down Brady and Co. Bwaaaa!!!

This team going 8-8 and being in it until the last game for the NFC east was a miracle. And Romo was the biggest part of that miracle.

Had we made the playoffs, we would have been embrassed the next week anyway. So all of this is just silly talk. This team is embarassing and its a lot of things. Least of which is Romo.

[Hoofbite]

Is this supposed to be a new concept?

That an incredibly strong team overall can win in spite of subpar or worse QB play? And for the record, the 49ers and Ravens have been getting solid QB play so I'm not sure there's any point to be made.

I thought Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson established this years ago.

I love how Kaepernick being the backup to start the season is being tossed around like there's some significant to it. The guy is clearly better than the starter was, it's not like Kaep is going back to the bench. He's their QB into the future.

[CowboyRoy]

Originally Posted by Ntegrase96

You don't have to look too far. Look at the last game against Washington. Dwayne Harris put Romo and the offense into position to get back into the game, then the Defense forced the Redskins to punt giving Romo and the cowboys offense the ideal 4 minute drill with 3 timeouts to get 6.

We all know how that went.

Also the Browns game comes to mind. Spencer forces a strip sack to all but seel the game by giving the Boys great field position for either a TD or FG, and then Romo fumbles... another inexcusable mistake. Then the defense actually holds the Browns out of the endzone only for the Cowboys to play it safe and Romo and crew don't get a first down.

Yep, and why did he make that mistake? Had no running game to pound the ball down the field. And the defense knew it. So all they had to do was tee off on Romo. Romo knowing if he doenst make the play on his own, they lose. So he is pressing. Rusher comes nearly unblocked straight up the middle in Romo's face as he throws the pass off his back foot for the pick.

And I like how you said Harris put us in position. LOL Romo threw two clutch passes. One on the TD and the other on the 2 point converstion.

And after the pick, the defense holds to a FG and hatcher jumps off sides thus giving Romo no other shot. needless to say, Romo should never have thrown that pick.

If Romo has a nice clean pocket, or has the ability to hand the ball off for 6 yards, that pick probably never happens. Just sayin.

[CowboyRoy]

Originally Posted by Hoofbite

Is this supposed to be a new concept?

That an incredibly strong team overall can win in spite of subpar or worse QB play? And for the record, the 49ers and Ravens have been getting solid QB play so I'm not sure there's any point to be made.

I thought Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson established this years ago.

I love how Kaepernick being the backup to start the season is being tossed around like there's some significant to it. The guy is clearly better than the starter was, it's not like Kaep is going back to the bench. He's their QB into the future.

Thats the whole point. That the big reason they have solid QB play is because they time to throw, run games, good defenses ect...ect...

[CowboyRoy]

Originally Posted by Hoofbite

Is this supposed to be a new concept?

That an incredibly strong team overall can win in spite of subpar or worse QB play? And for the record, the 49ers and Ravens have been getting solid QB play so I'm not sure there's any point to be made.

I thought Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson established this years ago.

I love how Kaepernick being the backup to start the season is being tossed around like there's some significant to it. The guy is clearly better than the starter was, it's not like Kaep is going back to the bench. He's their QB into the future.

This argument is real simple actually. Brady, Brees, Eli, Manning, Rogers are all at home right now. And two of those didnt even make the playoffs. So if its all about QB play, then why are the starting QB's in the superbowl Joe Flacco and a 2nd year running QB in Kapernaek that has only played like 9 games in his NFL career?

Its REAL simple. This is a team game and its NOT all about the QB. And why did Flacco make the SB finally after 8 years? Because his defense finally shut
down Brady in the big game. 13 points. LOL

It doesnt get any more clear than that. Game over!!!

[Wahoo Cowboy]

Originally Posted by CowboyRoy

Yep, and why did he make that mistake? Had no running game to pound the ball down the field. And the defense knew it. So all they had to do was tee off on Romo. Romo knowing if he doenst make the play on his own, they lose. So he is pressing. Rusher comes nearly unblocked straight up the middle in Romo's face as he throws the pass off his back foot for the pick.

And I like how you said Harris put us in position. LOL Romo threw two clutch passes. One on the TD and the other on the 2 point converstion.

And after the pick, the defense holds to a FG and hatcher jumps off sides thus giving Romo no other shot. needless to say, Romo should never have thrown that pick.

If Romo has a nice clean pocket, or has the ability to hand the ball off for 6 yards, that pick probably never happens. Just sayin.

Cowboys RBs combined for 100 yards on 22 carries against Washington, good for over 4.5 yards a carry. That's good enough to win a game in the NFL.

Look, I'm a big Romo fan. His exceptional play during the second half of the season is what put Dallas in a position to have that game matter. But he was dreadful against Washington, and it wasn't the running game's fault.