The Foolishness of Big Contracts after Age 30 - Dallas Cowboys Forum

T-RO · 03-02-2013

Here is an excellent article breaking down player age and production:
ww.pro-football-reference.com/articles/age.htm

Here is the summary of the number crunching:

Quote:

...the word "old" means 28 for a running back, 30 for a receiver, and 32 for a quarterback

Unfortunately this article did not publish any data about defensive players. The study clumped in Tight Ends with "receivers."

Here is my guess-timation for other positions. Please feel free to throw in your own estimation.
-O-lineman seem to enjoy longer lives in the NFL. Maybe not declining until 32 or 33 and then only slowly declining.
-DBs have short lives in the league...similar to running backs...declining after age 28.
-Linebackers probably start declining around age 30.
-D-lineman maybe 30-32.

Now let's ponder it:
•Romo will turn 33 in a few weeks.
•Witten will turn 31 in May
•Ware is 30

If somebody forced me to bet on it...I'd predict all 3 have already entered into their decline. I hope I'm wrong. But hope isn't a plan.

Radplan is our only hope

JoeyBoy718 · 03-02-2013

I don't disagree. But I think you also have to look at consistently, level of eliteness, and position. Romo is turning 33 but he plays QB and we all know how hard it is to find a QB. Witten is turning 31 but he's probably one of the most consistent players in the entire league at any position. Look at Tony Gonzalez. And Ware, when healthy, is one of the all-time greats. Then again you got guys like Spencer who are nearing 30 who are good but not elite. Those are the guys you don't sign to a max contract.

FuzzyLumpkins · 03-02-2013

'Radplan' is rebuilding noting more.

as for your link:

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Firefox can't find the server at ww.pro-football-reference.com.

T-RO · 03-02-2013

The link just lacked the www. Here it is:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/articles/age.htm

Maxmadden · 03-02-2013

Go back and look at all the teams that won the Superbowl the last ten years or so and look at the exceptions on your list. I unfortunately read your "Radplan" and you sir have been weighed, measured and found wanting.

T-RO · 03-02-2013

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeyBoy718

I don't disagree. But I think you also have to look at consistently, level of eliteness, and position. Romo is turning 33 but he plays QB and we all know how hard it is to find a QB. Witten is turning 31 but he's probably one of the most consistent players in the entire league at any position. Look at Tony Gonzalez. And Ware, when healthy, is one of the all-time greats. Then again you got guys like Spencer who are nearing 30 who are good but not elite. Those are the guys you don't sign to a max contract.

We fans (and even the boys in front offices) often forget: Randy Moss at 23 isn't Randy Moss at 31. Completely different players. The NFL is merciless. You either have the athleticism...or you don't.

Romo has already passed the line when it starts, and somebody is going to give him a five year contract at 20 mil annual? (I hope it's not us)

Sure there are exceptions. But it's wise to regard them as exceptions.

T-RO · 03-02-2013

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxmadden

Go back and look at all the teams that won the Superbowl the last ten years or so and look at the exceptions on your list.

Here you go...last 13 Super Bowl winners. See any quarterbacks older than 32?

Kurt Warner- 28
Trent Dilfer- 28
Tom Brady- 24
Brad Johnson- 34
Tom Brady-26
Tom Brady-27
Ben Roethlisberger-23
Peyton Manning-30
Eli Manning- 27
Ben Roethlisberger - 26
Drew Brees - 32
Aaron Rogers - 27
Eli Manning - 31

**jobberone** · 03-02-2013

Troy Aikman 1989-2000
George Blanda (Also PK) 1949-1958, 1960-1975
Terry Bradshaw 1970-1983
Len Dawson 1957-1975
John Elway 1983-1998
Dan Fouts 1973-1987
Otto Graham 1946-1955
Bob Griese 1967-1980
Sonny Jurgensen 1957-1974
Jim Kelly 1986-1996
Bobby Layne 1948-1962
Dan Marino 1983-1999
Joe Montana 1979-1994
Warren Moon 1984-2000
Joe Namath 1965-1977
Bart Starr 1956-1971
Roger Staubach 1969-1979
Fran Tarkenton 1961-1978
Y.A. Tittle 1948-1964
Johnny Unitas 1956-1973
Norm Van Brocklin 1949-1960
Bob Waterfield 1945-1952
Steve Young 1985-1999

http://www.profootballhof.com/hof/po....CGyWTifC.dpuf

My guess is the stats are pushed down by the fact many are out of the league in a few years and the better ones last into their mid to late 30s some longer. Obviously those in the HOF are at the other end having gotten into the Hall by virtue of their longevity as well as great play.

Most good or better QBs retire on their own although a few get traded because of declining play. Johnny U was one who hung on too long.

T-RO · 03-02-2013

Quote:

Originally Posted by jobberone

Troy Aikman 1989-2000
George Blanda (Also PK) 1949-1958, 1960-1975
Terry Bradshaw 1970-1983
Len Dawson 1957-1975
John Elway 1983-1998
Dan Fouts 1973-1987
Otto Graham 1946-1955
Bob Griese 1967-1980
Sonny Jurgensen 1957-1974
Jim Kelly 1986-1996
Bobby Layne 1948-1962
Dan Marino 1983-1999
Joe Montana 1979-1994
Warren Moon 1984-2000
Joe Namath 1965-1977
Bart Starr 1956-1971
Roger Staubach 1969-1979
Fran Tarkenton 1961-1978
Y.A. Tittle 1948-1964
Johnny Unitas 1956-1973
Norm Van Brocklin 1949-1960
Bob Waterfield 1945-1952
Steve Young 1985-1999

How long they play...and how long they play near their peak are two completely different things.

How many in this last had great years after age 33? Even though Elway won his Super Bowls when he was older...he was a much better player in his mid-twenties.

SDCowboy85 · 03-02-2013

32 is not old at all for QBs anymore. That's just into the prime.

T-RO · 03-02-2013

Quote:

Originally Posted by SDCowboy85

32 is not old at all for QBs anymore. That's just into the prime.

That's not at all what the research indicates. And it's certainly not what is shown in that list of Super Bowl winners.

T-RO · 03-02-2013

When did Troy win Super Bowls?
All before age 31.

When did Bradshaw win Super Bowls?
All before age 32.

When did Brady win Super Bowls?
All before age 32

When have the Manning brothers won Super Bowls?
All before age 32

Need I go on?

Maxmadden · 03-02-2013

Quote:

Originally Posted by T-RO

Here you go...last 13 Super Bowl winners. See any quarterbacks older than 32?

Kurt Warner- 28
Trent Dilfer- 28
Tom Brady- 24
Brad Johnson- 34
Tom Brady-26
Tom Brady-27
Ben Roethlisberger-23
Peyton Manning-30
Eli Manning- 27
Ben Roethlisberger - 26
Drew Brees - 32
Aaron Rogers - 27
Eli Manning - 31

I didn't know you were focusing on Qb's. So you are going to cut these HOF QB's because they reached the age of 32? Romo didn't even play his first 2 years in the league. You have the perfect exit strategy but you can't see past tomorrow. How many teams in the league are constantly searching for THE QB? Every year they give away multiple draft picks and overdraft QB's not because he was the best player available but because they know that the Trent Dilfer teams only come along once every 20 years or so. It all starts and finishes with the QB.

Name the QB's between Aikman and Romo and remember we went 5 and 11 three of those seasons but failed to get a Qb all of those years..and how many of the 1st round QB's have flamed out? A bird in hand is worth 3 in the bush.

1) Bart Starr, Green Bay Packers - Super Bowl I (33) and Super Bowl II (34).
2) Len Dawson, Kansas City Chiefs - Super Bowl IV (34).
3) John Unitas, Baltimore Colts - Super Bowl V (37). Earl Morrall finished the game, coming in after Unitas' injury. He was 36.
4) Roger Staubach, Dallas Cowboys - Super Bowl XII (35).
5) Jim Plunkett, Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders - Super Bowl XV (33) and Super Bowl XVIII (36).
6) Joe Theismann, Washington Redskins - Super Bowl XVII (33).
7) Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers - Super Bowl XXIV (33).
8) Steve Young, San Francisco 49ers - Super Bowl XXIX (33).
9) John Elway, Denver Broncos - Super Bowl XXXII (37) and Super Bowl XXXIII (38).

T-RO · 03-02-2013

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxmadden

I didn't know you were focusing on Qb's. So you are going to cut these HOF QB's because they reached the age of 32? Romo didn't even play his first 2 years in the league. You have the perfect exit strategy but you can't see past tomorrow. How many teams in the league are constantly searching for THE QB? Every year they give away multiple draft picks and overdraft QB's not because he was the best player available but because they know that the Trent Dilfer teams only come along once every 20 years or so. It all starts and finishes with the QB.

Name the QB's between Aikman and Romo and remember we went 5 and 11 three of those seasons but failed to get a Qb all of those years..and how many of the 1st round QB's have flamed out? A bird in hand is worth 3 in the bush.

1) Bart Starr, Green Bay Packers - Super Bowl I (33) and Super Bowl II (34).
2) Len Dawson, Kansas City Chiefs - Super Bowl IV (34).
[View Full Quote]

Quite a list. It validates my point. They are the exception. As speed and athleticism has ratcheted up in the past few decades...the exceptions can be numbered on a few fingers. (The 33-year olds are just entering their decline years so that can be understood)

Yes, it might be difficult to find a Romo replacement. And it's particularly difficult if you aren't drafting near the top. That's why its best we trade Romo NOW, and facilitate a bad seasonal record. If we load up picks and move up in the draft...we'll increase our odds of finding a Luck or a Lee or a Russell.

The Romo at age 35 won't be the Romo we saw at age 30. It's quite unlikely he'll be a top 10 QB at that age.

nickjamesw43 · 03-02-2013

I don't think that stat sheet tells you much. If I'm reading it correctly it only gives the percent that improve or decline after a certain age. It tells you nothing about the magnitude of the improvement or decline.

Secondly it's foolhardy to compare completely different players just because they play the same position. You have to look at players who have had a similar career arc to the given player. For instance you should not be comparing Randy Moss and Terrell Owens to the wide receiver position in general. You should compare them to other top receivers who played previously.

Also 9 of the 30 superbowl winning QBs have been older then 32 when they won. That is not a rare exception that's a pretty significant chunk.