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3-round fantasy mock from 3-15-2007
Drug this out a little earlier this evening and had a good laughs. Thought I would share with y'all.........
March 15, 2007
By John U. Miller IV, Managing Editor
Let's get right to my 3-round fantasy mock. These aren't directly predicated to any Draft Sharks rankings or projections, just my early take on how a RB-hogging experts draft *might* go right now:
1.1: RB L.Tomlinson (SD): A 100% certainty nationwide. This doesn't happen often.
1.2: RB Steven Jackson (StL): Became the 5th RB to post 150 rush/100 rec in same game.
1.3: RB Larry Johnson (KC): Yes, 844 touches (w/ playoffs) in 2 years concerns us...
1.4: RB Frank Gore (SF): It sucks that Norv left but 1,695 yards? This guy's a star.
1.5: RB Rudi Johnson (Cin): Warrior averages #8 FF RB rank since '04. He's earned this.
1.6: RB Joseph Addai (Ind): Rhodes left so it's time to saddle up. Most upside in rd #1.
1.7: QB Peyton Manning (Ind): There's always someone who bites early. Let 'em do it.
1.8: RB Shaun Alexander (Sea): Hard to feel elated about this pick but hey, C'est La Vie.
1.9: RB Willie Parker (Pitt): FWP quietly had a hefty 31 carries inside the 10.
1.10: RB Brian Westbrook (Phi): BW had seven 100-yd games (6 rush, 1 rec) in '07.
1.11: RB Edgerrin James (Arz): The red Kool-Aid always flows, make no mistake.
1.12: RB Reggie Bush (NO): You're really getting a stud WR (88 catches) who runs TDs.
2.1: RB Laurence Maroney (NE): Lo-Mo begins the post-Dillon era.
2.2: RB Willis McGahee (Bal): Others will be hesitant to take him here. I wouldn't be.
2.3: RB Clinton Portis (Was): Tricky pick but assume Ladell Betts will be traded.
2.4: RB Chester Taylor (Min): Paired up with FWP, I'm set with two 300-carry backs.
2.5: QB Drew Brees (NO): Lose Peyton's 3 fluky TD runs and Brees tied him for #1 QB.
2.6: RB Cedric Benson (Chi): He'll start going even earlier when it sinks in that TJ left.
2.7: WR Torry Holt (StL): Paired up with Addai at 1.6 for a mix of stability and upside.
2.8: RB D. McAllister (NO): Start a WR run? Nope, I'll take the 12th best RB last year.
2.9: WR Chad Johnson (Cin): Some go RB/RB (Gore/?) in the 4 spot. Not me.
2.10: WR Marvin Harrison (Ind): The 2006 #1 WR will be 35 at kickoff. Queasy pick.
2.11: WR Steve Smith (Car): Still managed #8 WR rank despite two moody hammies.
2.12: QB Carson Palmer (Cin): Right behind Peyton for most QB points since '05.
3.1: WR Reggie Wayne (Ind): Risky call over Colston but Team #1 is stacked.
3.2: RB Travis Henry (Den): Denver's running game still lures us in like a Starbucks.
3.3: RB Ronnie Brown (Mia): This could be a huge steal, maybe a title-winning pick.
3.4: WR Marques Colston (NO): Team #4 has Gore/Chad/Colston, smartly waits on QB.
3.5: WR Terrell Owens (Dal): Team #5 has Rudi/Deuce/Owens, oozes boom-or-bust.
3.6: RB Cadillac Williams (TB): All the way down to 3.6? For real? I couldn't pass.
3.7: RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax): He scored 16 TDs last year but pick 3.7 feels right.
3.8: RB Thomas Jones (NYJ): Here's a potential value-gem. But will Lil' Leon mooch?
3.9: RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG): Opinions vary but we all agree he'll get touchdowns.
3.10: RB Ahman Green (Hou):15th-ranked in'06, 24th RB taken? Sssh. 2007 DS Sleeper.
3.11: WR Anquan Boldin (Arz): Tomato, tomatoe... Yes I'd take him over Fitzgerald.
3.12: WR TJ Houshmandzadeh (Cin): His name is always on winning fantasy rosters.
I'm thinking Wes Welker is going to have the career that Peter Warrick should have had. Lots of chain-moving catches on nationally televised games, big clutch punt returns, and maybe a Super Bowl ring. Welker was undrafted out of Texas Tech in 2004. Warrick was the 4th overall pick out of FSU in 2000. Welker just collected $5.5 million up front to join the powerhouse Patriots as Tom Brady's slot receiver. Warrick will earn $70,000 with the Las Vegas Gladiators catching beige & blue arena balls from Shaun King. Life is funny. But don't cry over P-Dub just yet. He's barely 30 years old and made some $14 million playing pro football, and that's not counting endorsements...
Every year there's a huge breakout team, last year it was New Orleans. Recently I heard ESPN's Michael Smith say his breakout pick was Arizona. Doesn't it get tiresome predicting the Cards to bust out every year? Been there, done that. I'm going with Tampa Bay. All Jon Gruden needs to rise from 4 to 10 wins is an offensive line and an easy schedule. He'll have both in 2007. Last year Tampa drafted two stud O-linemen early in RG Davin Joseph (1st round) and RT Jeremy Trueblood (2nd round) and it will pay off. The addition of ex-Giants LT Luke Petitgout could be big. They also have a 4th-place schedule featuring the Lions, Texans, and Redskins - and potentially zero bad-weather contests unless it's nasty when they visit Seattle. C'mon Jake Plummer, don't retire. You can beat out Garcia and Simms easily. Gruden will make you a MVP candidate. Hmmm... let's see what Snake has to say after Tampa plucks Calvin Johnson in the draft.
Ripe or Hype:
--Ripe: Broncos WR Brandon Marshall - In my best Jan Brady voice, "Marshall, Marshall, Marshall." This kid could break out quickly while Javon Walker draws double-teams.
--Hype: Seahawks S Deon Grant - The erratic ex-Jaguar got $11 million guaranteed to sign and they don't know if he'll play free or strong safety. Look for the Rams to victimize him in a huge divisional matchup.
--Ripe: Bills QB J.P. Losman - His completion rate leaped from 49.6% to 62.5%. He's got 24 NFL starts under his belt and a premier receiver in Lee Evans. Good fantasy backup QB.
--Hype: Cowboys WR Terry Glenn - T.G. strikes me as a type that could completely disappear in a puff of smoke. Yes, Glenn's hung around the fantasy top-20 WRs two years in a row. But her biggest fan, Bill Parcells, is gone, and she's entering her 12th season.
We had a quick staff huddle and ranked the top-8 free-agent RBs:
1. Willis McGahee (Ravens) - McGahee stuffed his wallet with $7.5m just for signing his name, but we love that Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome hung a $6m option bonus out there to trigger the rest of the deal.
2. Ahman Green (Texans) - It's just too easy to poo-poo this one, right? Yes, Green is 30 years old. Yes, he has 1,871 career carries. But Corey Dillon was 30 when he joined New England with 1,865 carries, and he merely rumbled for 1,635 yards and 12 TDs. Don't snooze on Green. He's mastered the zone-blocking gig.
3. (tie) Thomas Jones (Jets) - He's gonna get a lot of carries. The better he runs, the less Leon Washington will play. The Bears had a shot in the Super Bowl if they had kept feeding Jones the rock.
3. (tie) Travis Henry (Broncos) - Feisty fella, he's prideful if anything. Better than Mike Bell for sure. The passing game with Jay Cutler will open big running lanes.
5. Tatum Bell (Lions) - Kevin Jones' foot is wrecked so we were thinkin' majah sleepah here... until they added T.J. Duckett. Chris Brown might be on the way too. Plus what's this about Matt Millen turning around and trading Bell away?
6. Jamal Lewis (Browns) - The more you look at it, the more you think, "Aw, screw him." Plus they'll draft Adrian Peterson anyway...
7. Dominic Rhodes (Raiders) - Let's re-visit this one in July. LaMont Jordan will be steamed after taking a pay cut. Classic committee situation.
8. Reuben Droughns (Giants) - GM Jerry Reese swears Brandon Jacobs will get 20 carries per game so we have to believe him.
This is a team who is battling several major injuries to
key players including Pro Bowl talents like Lee, Austin, Jenkins, Murray,
Carter and Ratliff. Other key starters missing include Costa, Smith, Church and
Coleman. That is 11 key players - that's half the starting lineup. Yet we still went 8-8.