Aikman: NFC wild-card race is wide open

[WoodysGirl]

By Troy Aikman
Special to NFL.com


(Nov. 9, 2004) -- There are six NFC teams currently sitting at 3-5, and it's safe to say that none of them are out of the playoff picture.

If the season ended today, the New York Giants would be the first wild card in the NFC with a 5-3 record. But they are coming off a surprising loss to the Chicago Bears (one of those 3-5 teams) and both of their starting defensive ends, Keith Washington and Michael Strahan, are out for the season. I wouldn't rule them out, but it's going to be difficult for the Giants to keep that position in the playoff race.

In addition to the 3-5 teams, there are also three NFC teams at 4-4. So how does the race shape up for the second half of the season? My guess is that the NFC wild cards come out of the North and West divisions. If you're in the NFC East or South, although certainly possible to get in as a wild card, I would expect only the divisional winners to advance.

Of course, winning the division is what all these teams strive for. With the 2003 realignment into eight divisions, only two wild-card teams qualify for postseason play in each conference. It puts a premium on winning the division, which is how it should be.

Despite a 4-4 record, the Green Bay Packers could very well be the hottest team in the NFC right now. They began the season 1-4 and it appeared their year was about over before it ever really got started. Now, having won three straight, they battle Minnesota at Lambeau Field this weekend with a chance to move into a first-place tie in the NFC North and control their own destiny.

And if the Packers do remain hot and end up winning the NFC North, then the Vikings are suddenly thrown in the mix of wild-card contenders.

(Note: Considering the importance of Sunday's Minnesota-Green Bay game, it's either tough luck or unfair scheduling that the Packers are coming off a bye week, giving them two weeks to prepare for this game, while the Vikings must travel to Green Bay after playing in Indianapolis on Monday night. Not an easy task for Minnesota.)

The Seattle Seahawks (5-3) and St. Louis Rams (4-4) will battle for the NFC West title, and my belief is that whichever team finishes second will earn a wild-card spot. The Arizona Cardinals are 3-5, which is fairly impressive for a team that won four games all of last year. The Cardinals are playing better than expected, especially on defense. Dennis Green is seeing progress, but this is still a team that is at best a year away.

The two 3-5 teams in the NFC East are in a difficult position. The Dallas Cowboys' loss to Cincinnati last week kept them from making up any ground in the division following losses by both the Eagles and Giants, both teams are ahead of the Cowboys in the division. A win would have put the Cowboys at 4-4, a game behind the Giants for second place. Realistically, their chances of making the playoffs hinge on them winning seven of the last eight games. They play Philadelphia twice, starting this Monday night, and they have road games at Baltimore and Seattle. Not that they can't win any of those games, but winning seven of eight is hard enough for teams like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh or New England -- the elite teams of the NFL. It's difficult to imagine Dallas pulling it off.

Washington is coming off a win over the Detroit Lions (4-4), but the Redskins are in the same position as Dallas. I thought they'd be a good team. They have good players and they've played good defense pretty much all season. With a new coaching staff and a team that was 5-11 last year, it's not surprising that they've struggled. What is surprising is the way they've lost games. They have been hurt by poor clock management, penalties, turnovers -- things you would not expect from a Joe Gibbs team.

Washington and Dallas are also in the same boat in that you wonder when they will turn to their young quarterbacks. I'm a little surprised the Redskins haven't gone to Patrick Ramsey, their first-round pick of two years ago. Likewise, people are asking Bill Parcells (much to his chagrin) about Drew Henson. Both of those teams have young quarterbacks, and it's a reasonable question for both of those teams: Who is going to be the quarterback down the road, and when is it time to make that switch?

In the NFC South, Tampa Bay and New Orleans both trail first-place Atlanta by three games. The Buccaneers are playing better and might be able to get back in it, but it will be a tough task. The Saints just seem too inconsistent. I don't see a wild card team coming from that division.

In the NFC North, no teams are out of the mix. The Bears are in last place at 3-5, but only two games behind first-place Minnesota. With starting quarterback Rex Grossman out for the year, a lot of things have to go well for the Bears in order for them to be competitive. But last week's win over the Giants was huge, and they have as realistic a chance as anyone in that division of doing something. Detroit and Minnesota have lost two straight, Chicago has won two straight and Green Bay has won three straight. The division is up for grabs.

The final eight weeks should be exciting!

[Clay_Allison]

The NFC is a complete Cluster F*** this season.

South: Carolina falls apart, more injuries than I've ever seen happen to a team. If I was Fox I'd be in full blown "desperate measures" mode. Atlanta is a paper Lion that is not as good as its' record. They have scored exactly as many points as they've allowed. Tampa is beginning to wake up, but maybe too late to make the bus. New Orleans is the worst 3-5 team in the league, and is in what I am certain is Hazlett's last year. He won the franchise's first playoff game with Ditka's team. He'll have to go find a coordinator's job pretty soon.

West: In St Louis, Martz has managed to prove the Peter principle again, making bonehead decisions and blaming the players while claiming to take bullets that he has always pushed his players in front of. The Seattle Seahawks lost their nerve for a few games but leads the division again at 5-3, they have recommitted to the run and my favorite RB in the league, Shaun Alexander. The Arizona Cardinals have gotten good production from Emmitt Smith, have their recievers getting healthy. They can be very dangerous, a playoff spoiler at least down the road, if they keep up the pace. San Francisco is bad, I think they'll be bad for some time to come.

East: Philidelphia is way out in front in the division and not far short of clinching a bye, the one thing that I think will start to catch up with them is a thin RB corps and a lack of interest in the run. In NY, the Giants defense should start getting used to being dominated at the LOS. With both starting Defensive Ends on IR, I can't imagine a solid but already unspectacular defense keeping them in games when the offense struggles. The Dallas Cowboys are in a state of confusion, they lack identity on offense and defense, they have a very thin WR corps and a questionable interest in running the ball. Their record will not improve much unless someone has a plan and stops trying to wing it. The Washington Redskins are tied with Dallas for the bottom of the division, but can't be viewed as a better team unless they make a change at QB from Brunell, who looks older than Blanda, much less Testaverde. Ramsey might spark this team to some scoring to compliment the ground game and an adequate defense, but even that is a long shot.

North: Minnessota can score without Moss, but their supposedly improved defense is now looking very questionable again. Green Bay is a similar team, high-scoring, at times defensively challenged, but they have a chance to take the division lead in Lambeau Field coming off a bye after Minnessota suffered a tough loss on monday night and must come in on a short rest. Detroit is an enigma, maybe even to themselves. The offense has the tools to succeed, but they don't produce the points. Chicago might well be a playoff spoiler in this division, with 3 vulnerable teams ahead of them, they have hung a loss on Green Bay already, they won't win the division, but someone may well lose it to them.

Predicted Finish

East:

Philidelphia 13-3
New York 8-8
Dallas 6-10
Washington 5-11

North

Green Bay 10-6
Minnessota 9-7
Detoit 7-9
Chicago 6-10

South

Atlanta 11-5
Tampa 8-8
New Orleans 5-11
Carolina 2-14

West

Seattle 11-5
Arizona 8-8
St Louis 7-9
San Francisco 4-12

[TheHustler]

yikes. 6-10 prediction. sadly that's probably pretty accurate.

[LaTunaNostra]

Originally Posted by Clay_Allison

The NFC is a complete Cluster F*** this season.

South: Carolina falls apart, more injuries than I've ever seen happen to a team. If I was Fox I'd be in full blown "desperate measures" mode. Atlanta is a paper Lion that is not as good as its' record. They have scored exactly as many points as they've allowed. Tampa is beginning to wake up, but maybe too late to make the bus. New Orleans is the worst 3-5 team in the league, and is in what I am certain is Hazlett's last year. He won the franchise's first playoff game with Ditka's team. He'll have to go find a coordinator's job pretty soon.

[View Full Quote]West: In St Louis, Martz has managed to prove the Peter principle again, making bonehead decisions and blaming the players while claiming to take bullets that he has always pushed his players in front of. The Seattle Seahawks lost their nerve for a few games but leads the division again at 5-3, they have recommitted to the run and my favorite RB in the league, Shaun Alexander. The Arizona Cardinals have gotten good production from Emmitt Smith, have their recievers getting healthy. They can be very dangerous, a playoff spoiler at least down the road, if they keep up the pace. San Francisco is bad, I think they'll be bad for some time to come.

East: Philidelphia is way out in front in the division and not far short of clinching a bye, the one thing that I think will start to catch up with them is a thin RB corps and a lack of interest in the run. In NY, the Giants defense should start getting used to being dominated at the LOS. With both starting Defensive Ends on IR, I can't imagine a solid but already unspectacular defense keeping them in games when the offense struggles. The Dallas Cowboys are in a state of confusion, they lack identity on offense and defense, they have a very thin WR corps and a questionable interest in running the ball. Their record will not improve much unless someone has a plan and stops trying to wing it. The Washington Redskins are tied with Dallas for the bottom of the division, but can't be viewed as a better team unless they make a change at QB from Brunell, who looks older than Blanda, much less Testaverde. Ramsey might spark this team to some scoring to compliment the ground game and an adequate defense, but even that is a long shot.

North: Minnessota can score without Moss, but their supposedly improved defense is now looking very questionable again. Green Bay is a similar team, high-scoring, at times defensively challenged, but they have a chance to take the division lead in Lambeau Field coming off a bye after Minnessota suffered a tough loss on monday night and must come in on a short rest. Detroit is an enigma, maybe even to themselves. The offense has the tools to succeed, but they don't produce the points. Chicago might well be a playoff spoiler in this division, with 3 vulnerable teams ahead of them, they have hung a loss on Green Bay already, they won't win the division, but someone may well lose it to them.

Predicted Finish

East:

Philidelphia 13-3
New York 8-8
Dallas 6-10
Washington 5-11

North

Green Bay 10-6
Minnessota 9-7
Detoit 7-9
Chicago 6-10

South

Atlanta 11-5
Tampa 8-8
New Orleans 5-11
Carolina 2-14

West

Seattle 11-5
Arizona 8-8
St Louis 7-9
San Francisco 4-12

Clay, excellent analysis of the NFC teams at midseason - right on the nose in particular on those teams I've been hopin knock Philly out of the playoffs - Atlanta, Green Bay, St Louie, Seattle



pkaal opf th Rams adnFalcoms - ywo teasm I had hoped mightcouldpnm tyhe