In the latest Gallup tracking poll, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain 50 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. Mr. McCain’s deficit in that survey has remained seven percentage points or more for most of the last two weeks.
Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large, and this late, to win the White House: Ronald Reagan
, who trailed President Jimmy Carter
47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.
The article goes on to state that it has happened only this once in the past 18 presidential elections.
18 elections / 1 occurance = 5.6 % mathematical probability