Moneyball Mock

[fanfromvirginia]

Originally Posted by robert70x7

Another reason why the Athletics aren't what they should be is because they are unable to draft the top flight prospects that require huge signing bonuses in the slots that their draft picks normally fall in. They have to reach for a majority of their first round picks just so they can sign someone.

Well, yes, and no. The Astros were in the same mindset under McClane but it really is a choice. Other small market teams like Pittsburgh made a conscious decision to pay extra for picks (thereby running with even lower payrolls) in order to guarantee a constant supply of young minor leaguers to replace the vets they lose to FA. It's a very imperfect strategy that may have seen its best days with the new restrictions on signing bonuses but when you're a small market team you are constantly picking your poison.

[nathanlt]

Originally Posted by AbeBeta

That's true of the movie. Not so much of the actual approach which focused a much finer grained analysis of statistical performance than those used previously. Using those measures allowed for better prediction of future performance -- just 'getting on base' is a gross oversimiplification of the approach.

If we were applying this to the NFL, measurables would be used only to the extent that they predict actual performance

"Getting on base" was as concise as I could be without explaining the whole movie. It is simplified, but in this thread, I'm learning more about the actual approach. Interesting stuff.