Great Article on 1st round success rate (Case for DeCastro)

[InmanRoshi]

Originally Posted by 38 Special

So Nate Newton went to the pro bowl in 99 because he was a first round interior OL selection?

There's a pretty big disconnect in your logic.

No, the logic is that interior linemen get to Pro Bowls based almost entirely on name recognition. Any player selected with a first round draft pick has a huge leg up in name recognition because he had Kiper and Mayock going on and on about what a great player he is for four months in front of national audiences. A guard or center selected in the first round almost has to completely flame out as a complete bust to not make the Pro Bowl.

[Galian Beast]

Originally Posted by Nation

The "safe" percentage logic is inherently flawed by the fact that 40 percent of our first round picks in the last decade have made the Pro Bowl. Roy, Newman, Ware and Jenkins have all made it and I think it's a safe bet that Dez and Ty will be there some day as well. If that is your barometer you can't really say Dallas has "missed so many times" when they're hitting at the same rate of the safest position.

Trust the board and take the best player available regardless of position.

Missed on Felix Jones, Anthony Spencer, Bobby Carpenter, Marcus Spears, and technically Bryant and Smith.

That is 6 misses and 4 hits. For one pro bowl appearance, that is about where it should be. However the rate for multiples still goes pretty low, given that only DeMarcus Ware and Roy Williams went to multiple. And going for Williams is a bit of a stretch...

I would certainly consider hitting the league average (if we even met that), to be missing a lot. We've been an average team, and we've won one playoff game.

[JBond]

Originally Posted by SDCowboy85

ESPN is reporting that Dallas is going to have to move way up now to get Barron. The Bills and Chiefs are now both planning on drafting him. Yesterday, Jerry kept talking about moving up though so maybe we will.

Chiefs are out. Going LB or d-line. They spent a first on a safety two years ago.

[burmafrd]

Originally Posted by InmanRoshi

No, the logic is that interior linemen get to Pro Bowls based almost entirely on name recognition. Any player selected with a first round draft pick has a huge leg up in name recognition because he had Kiper and Mayock going on and on about what a great player he is for four months in front of national audiences. A guard or center selected in the first round almost has to completely flame out as a complete bust to not make the Pro Bowl.

so how do they make the pro bowl in the first place if they have no name recognition?

WRONG.

By the way prior to the fans voting the Pro Bowl was legitimate.

But facts just do not impress you so why bother?

[fanfromvirginia]

Originally Posted by The Quest for Six

how is Barron a safe pick, he may be the best safety in this draft but what does that say when the safety class in this draft is so weak.....And barron is certainly NO Ed Reed, he's more of a strong safety than a free safety and one could argue that he may be more of a product of playing in a great defense, especially front seven....I wouldn't mind the pick if he's there at 14, but as far as I'm concerned, Decastro is the safe pick in this draft and when jerry is always talking about getting players to help Romo, that's the guy I want, because a great offensive line helps Romo and the offense by running the ball, protecting the quarterback and helps control the clock keeping the defense off the field...First round, Dallas has missed too often by not taking the safe pick, 30 years not taking an offensive line, Smith proved why that idea was flawed, give me more safe picks in the first round, so give me Decastro if he's there...

DeCastro is much safer. I prefer DeCastro. But this info, everything else equal, makes Barron safe compared to most everybody else in the conversation. I only mean relative to most others, which may not be saying that much given how many question marks there are on pretty much everybody in the conversation at this stage (again, minus DeCastro.)

[HoustonFrog]

I put this in an earlier thread...this is for a move up

Food for thought...and I love Barron..at 14

Recent safeties drafted in top 10: Eric Berry (5), LaRon Landry (6), Michael Huff (7), Donte Whitner (8), Sean Taylor (5)...2 are on other teams now. No real busts but take of it what you will. Nothing that reads "game changer."

[Kangaroo]

Originally Posted by Galian Beast

Missed on Felix Jones, Anthony Spencer, Bobby Carpenter, Marcus Spears, and technically Bryant and Smith.

That is 6 misses and 4 hits. For one pro bowl appearance, that is about where it should be. However the rate for multiples still goes pretty low, given that only DeMarcus Ware and Roy Williams went to multiple. And going for Williams is a bit of a stretch...

I would certainly consider hitting the league average (if we even met that), to be missing a lot. We've been an average team, and we've won one playoff game.

The only miss was Bobby the rest have been at least productive picks on the team and Bryant has two years in and has put up productive numbers for a young wr yet he is a miss and has not even finished his 3rd year .

[38 Special]

Originally Posted by jterrell

His point is the pro bowl means next to nothing so isn't a good criterion.

Not hard to follow the logic there.

My logic is even easier to follow. Not a single guard in the playoffs, on the all-pro or pro bowl rosters was selected as high at 14. NONE.

It's like a guy signing a 100 million dollar guaranteed contract then marrying a model without signing a pre-nup and feeling like he made a great deal.... #wasteofresources

I like the logic behind this argument much more, even if I disagree.

We don't know exactly who will be there, but there's a good chance that the best talent will be a Guard. I never have understood why interior DL are valued higher than interior OL, but I am ok with Brockers or Barron if JJ goes that way. Should be fun to find out.

[InmanRoshi]

Originally Posted by burmafrd

so how do they make the pro bowl in the first place if they have no name recognition?

Ugh, did you read my post. Any player drafted in the first round already has a ton of name recognition because he's been relentlessly hyped for four months leading up to the draft. Particularly an interior OL, because he's probably been described as "a special player worthy of a first round pick despite being a guard" an umpteen bajillion times before he's even played a snap in the NFL.

I know you put a huge amount of weight in Pro Bowls for offensive guards, given that you ride Andre Gurode's jock and call him a Pro Bowl player despite the fact that no one would give him a starting job after he hit the open market and no one is even offering him a job at all at the moment, but it's a joke.

[jterrell]

Originally Posted by Galian Beast

Missed on Felix Jones, Anthony Spencer, Bobby Carpenter, Marcus Spears, and technically Bryant and Smith.

That is 6 misses and 4 hits. For one pro bowl appearance, that is about where it should be. However the rate for multiples still goes pretty low, given that only DeMarcus Ware and Roy Williams went to multiple. And going for Williams is a bit of a stretch...

I would certainly consider hitting the league average (if we even met that), to be missing a lot. We've been an average team, and we've won one playoff game.

of the guys you listed everyone drafted top 14 went to multiple pro bowls(except tyron who hasn't had a chance yet but sure looks on the way), all the ones who were selected after 14 did not.

[Galian Beast]

Originally Posted by Kangaroo

The only miss was Bobby the rest have been at least productive picks on the team and Bryant has two years in and has put up productive numbers for a young wr yet he is a miss and has not even finished his 3rd year .

Comprehension isn't your strong suit... A miss as defined by not having gone to a pro bowl.