Is Romo just in a slump or is he on the Downside?

[tecolote]

He had 2 really bad games this season, throwing 2 TDs and 9 ints in them, in the other 7 he has 10 TDs and 4 ints.

Now you can't take away those 2 games but having watched Tony his whole career you can safely say that they are not the normal for him.

[jayhouston12]

the wideout's run wrong route's and he has no offensive line

combine the both and we're lucky to be 4-5 and not 1-8

[big dog cowboy]

Originally Posted by BTX

Is tony just in a slump or is he on the downside of his career? I honestly don't know.

Really?

[percyhoward]

Originally Posted by BTX

Is tony just in a slump or is he on the downside of his career? I honestly don't know.

Probably neither.

8 of the 13 INT he's thrown were on passes of 15 yards or more. Last year, only about 50% of those passes were intended for Austin or Bryant, and Robinson alone was targeted 40% of the time. This year, well over 80% have been intended of Austin or Bryant, with Ogletree being targeted less than 15% of the time. That's some of the impact of losing Robinson, but there's more.

This year, team passer rating on passes targeted for Ogletree is 70.6, while the rating for everyone else is 89.5 (almost 20 points higher). Last year, team passer rating on passes intended for Robinson was 132.2, while the rating for everyone else was 93.9 (almost 40 points lower). IOW, taking Ogletree and Robinson out of the equation, the team passer rating only drops 4 points, from 93.9 to 89.5. Considering how little of a threat Ogletree presents compared to Robinson, you'd think it would have dropped more.

Last year, Dallas finished the season ranked 11th in yards per drive. This year, we're 9th. So we're moving the ball, thanks mostly to a lot of Romo-to-Witten. But we're not scoring. Last year, we ranked 10th in TD per drive, compared to 21st this year. The difference compared to last year is that the TD numbers are down because of a drop in red zone TD. Part of that is drive-killing turnovers (see above), and part of it is we're less efficient in the red zone this year. Again, the main difference is Ogletree vs. Robinson.

2011: 25 total red zone TD
Robinson 8
everyone else 17

2012 (projected): 18 total red zone TD
Ogletree 2
everyone else 16

Take Ogletree/Robinson out of the picture, and red zone scoring is on about the same pace as last year, even with all of "Romo's" struggles.

[chuffly]

Originally Posted by percyhoward

Probably neither.

8 of the 13 INT he's thrown were on passes of 15 yards or more. Last year, only about 50% of those passes were intended for Austin or Bryant, and Robinson alone was targeted 40% of the time. This year, well over 80% have been intended of Austin or Bryant, with Ogletree being targeted less than 15% of the time. That's some of the impact of losing Robinson, but there's more.

This year, team passer rating on passes targeted for Ogletree is 70.6, while the rating for everyone else is 89.5 (almost 20 points higher). Last year, team passer rating on passes intended for Robinson was 132.2, while the rating for everyone else was 93.9 (almost 40 points lower). IOW, taking Ogletree and Robinson out of the equation, the team passer rating only drops 4 points, from 93.9 to 89.5. Considering how little of a threat Ogletree presents compared to Robinson, you'd think it would have dropped more.

[View Full Quote]Last year, Dallas finished the season ranked 11th in yards per drive. This year, we're 9th. So we're moving the ball, thanks mostly to a lot of Romo-to-Witten. But we're not scoring. Last year, we ranked 10th in TD per drive, compared to 21st this year. The difference compared to last year is that the TD numbers are down because of a drop in red zone TD. Part of that is drive-killing turnovers (see above), and part of it is we're less efficient in the red zone this year. Again, the main difference is Ogletree vs. Robinson.

2011: 25 total red zone TD
Robinson 8
everyone else 17

2012 (projected): 18 total red zone TD
Ogletree 2
everyone else 16

Take Ogletree/Robinson out of the picture, and red zone scoring is on about the same pace as last year, even with all of "Romo's" struggles.

Wow, this is good stuff. Appreciate the breakdown.

[perrykemp]

It's possible that age is starting to play a small factor in Romo's performance / availability.

In the three seasons so far since he turned 30 in April 2010, he has:

• Age 30 - 2010 - Missed half of the season due to injury
• Age 31 - 2011 - Career year
• Age 32 - 2012 - Currently tracking for his worst season statistically (as measured by QB rating and has a 12-12 TD/Int ratio

Who knows what the future holds. I think it's unrealistic to assume that as he starts to move into his mid-30s that his skills aren't going to erode -- especially his elusive in the pocket which is his trademark -- the legs always go first.

[Flinger]

Guess we will know in about 5 years... because, trust me, the Jones' boys will re-sign him and we will be able to watch...

[Marktui]

Originally Posted by BTX

Well that's last year, he sure isn't looking sharp THIS year. It's not just the turnovers he's missing open receivers all over the place.And I'm very concerned.

I believe his mechanics aren't as good for some reason or another. I think that he is rushing his throws just a tick. By that I mean not setting his feet or getting his shoulders in line with the throw.

All those hits he has taken this year has given him happy feet in the pocket. I can't blame him cause he hasn't had stellar protection.

Happens to the best of them. Brady used to get tune ups in season from his qb guru before he passed away this year.

[Dodger]

Earlier in the year, the Cowboys played 3 of the 4 top run defense teams in the NFL, and when you don't have a run game to speak of, that makes you a one-dimensional passing team that's easy to defend, especially with the line and the not so reliable receivers they have.

Since the bye, the Cowboys have played teams that are mostly not so good against the run, and Romo's QB rating has improved since then as it will in the next 3 weeks.

[Jimz31]

Most of his INT's came in just two games...I believe 9 of them.

I also think that missing a certain WR named Robinson has a bigger impact than most want to believe. Romo seeme to have an immediate trust in him...could it be that the ran his routes more crisply than Dez and the others?

This DOES make an impact for a QB....assuming the WR will do the correct thing on a blitz....crossing the CB's face when he should etc....

Some want to poo-poo the WR's responsibility in the INT's....I however do not.

[Eskimo]

I honestly do believe he is in decline because his ability to make quick reads seems to have diminished. He has never been able to exploit the middle of the field due to poor ability to avoid INTs on these throws except on simple check downs to Witten or RBs.

Now you can add an arm that is weaker taken some throws off the table, poor accuracy and limited ability to throw deep with even a single deep safety on the field.

IMO the defense is just squeezing the throws that he is able to make and it is causing great difficulty for us right now. In order to have a chance with Romo the OL has to get a lot better so we have an effective running game and more time for routes to develop. I do believe the top tier QBs would do a lot better in this offense and with this roster.

I no longer believe that Romo is a top 10 QB.

If we get an attractive offer for him we should probably trade him and start to re-build. There are still too many missing pieces here for us to contend with a non-elite QB to think we can turn it around before Romo falls off a cliff. There are some teams strapped by poor QB play including the Eagles, 49ers, Chiefs, Bears, Bucs and Browns.

[8FOR!3]

He's only 32 years old, there's no way in hell his arm's gotten weaker yet. Strength is the last thing to go. Peyton Manning's been playing what, 5 more years and he's 3 years old, but his arm strength has come back to normal throughout the season. And he's in much worse shape injury wise at this point in his career.

[percyhoward]

Originally Posted by Eskimo

He has never been able to exploit the middle of the field due to poor ability to avoid INTs on these throws except on simple check downs to Witten or RBs.

Romo had no problem exploiting the deep middle last year with Robinson, or going back to Owens' last year.

Romo's Passer Rating
Deep Middle (20+ yards)
2008 99.5
2009 60.6
2011 111.8
2012 53.1

[DWhite Fan]

Originally Posted by BTX

Is tony just in a slump or is he on the downside of his career? I honestly don't know.

How many more bash Tony threads do we need? I honestly don't know

Maybe the mods should just create a permanent thread for this type of non-sense...

[silver]

Originally Posted by percyhoward

Probably neither.

8 of the 13 INT he's thrown were on passes of 15 yards or more. Last year, only about 50% of those passes were intended for Austin or Bryant, and Robinson alone was targeted 40% of the time. This year, well over 80% have been intended of Austin or Bryant, with Ogletree being targeted less than 15% of the time. That's some of the impact of losing Robinson, but there's more.

This year, team passer rating on passes targeted for Ogletree is 70.6, while the rating for everyone else is 89.5 (almost 20 points higher). Last year, team passer rating on passes intended for Robinson was 132.2, while the rating for everyone else was 93.9 (almost 40 points lower). IOW, taking Ogletree and Robinson out of the equation, the team passer rating only drops 4 points, from 93.9 to 89.5. Considering how little of a threat Ogletree presents compared to Robinson, you'd think it would have dropped more.

[View Full Quote]Last year, Dallas finished the season ranked 11th in yards per drive. This year, we're 9th. So we're moving the ball, thanks mostly to a lot of Romo-to-Witten. But we're not scoring. Last year, we ranked 10th in TD per drive, compared to 21st this year. The difference compared to last year is that the TD numbers are down because of a drop in red zone TD. Part of that is drive-killing turnovers (see above), and part of it is we're less efficient in the red zone this year. Again, the main difference is Ogletree vs. Robinson.

2011: 25 total red zone TD
Robinson 8
everyone else 17

2012 (projected): 18 total red zone TD
Ogletree 2
everyone else 16

Take Ogletree/Robinson out of the picture, and red zone scoring is on about the same pace as last year, even with all of "Romo's" struggles.

Nice post. I would also add that the rebuilding of the OL coupled with the injury to Murray has affected Romo's efficiency. It would be nice to see a similar analysis when Romo has all the tools at his disposal and the OL starters and Murray play. I bet the passer rating drops when Murray and Costa are out.