Week 17 Division Away Games--why so many?

[DFWJC]

Some of the toughest games to regularly win are division road games.

I'm sure it's been pointed out before, but does anyone find it strange that Dallas has had to play an AWAY game vs an NFC East team 5 of the last 6 years?

To take the high road, I guess we have to assume that this is just some kind bad luck anomaly.
But 3 in 4 years would be slightly wierd, 4 of 5 years would be highly questionable, but 5 of the last 6? That seems almost like black helicopter stuff.
You can't explain it away very well using random math.

And it stacks the deck against any team if that game has some sort of meaning in the standings. Of course, if your team is really good, they will overcome it at least half tthe time. But for bubble teams, the odds are against them.

[muck4doo]

Originally Posted by DFWJC

Some of the toughest games to regularly win are division road games.

I'm sure it's been pointed out before, but does anyone find it strange that Dallas has had to play an AWAY game vs an NFC East team 5 of the last 6 years?

To take the high road, I guess we have to assume that this is just some kind bad luck anomaly.
But 3 in 4 years would be slightly wierd, 4 of 5 years would be highly questionable, but 5 of the last 6? That seems almost like black helicopter stuff.
You can't explain it away very well using random math.

And it stacks the deck against any team if that game has some sort of meaning in the standings. Of course, if your team is really good, they will overcome it at least half tthe time. But for bubble teams, the odds are against them.

They have to play those games regardless. But I do like a good conspiracy theory.

/Seriously, don't sound like a whiner fan

[Risen Star]

Doesn't matter to me. It all evens out in the end. If you're good enough, you'll get through it and make the playoffs.

[DFWJC]

Originally Posted by DFWJC

Of course, if your team is really good, they will overcome it at least half tthe time. But for bubble teams, the odds are against them.

I did say THIS.

Unless we think all games are equal--and it can be at least weakly argued that all regular season division games are fairly equal--then we throw away any win-and-in stats...because all the games have the same value.

I would say in the last game of the season vs a division rival when both teams are vying for a playoff spot or home field advantage (like we have had 3 of the last 4 years) it really DOES make a big difference if you are playing at home or away. I'm positive that long term win-loss stats and vegas will support me on this.

But in the end...I 100% agree that the GOOD team can win those games at least half the time anyway.

Bottom line is that it's odd. Ask any team if they want to play that game at home and they will all say "yes". I mean, I feel certain Dallas wins that last game if played at home. It's 10x easier to blitz and rush the QB when you play at home with a load crowd at your back.

Dallas would have gotten smoked in the playoffs anyway.

[SWG9]

It's tough to have to play those "win and you're in" games on the road, but they're only "win and you're in" games because Dallas didn't take care of business earlier in the season.

Take your pick of the screw ups from 2011 (Detroit game, Arizona game, etc.), but if the Cowboys had simply managed to hold onto a 12 point fourth quarter lead against the NYG at home (or completed a pass on third down to ice the game), they would have been able to rest their starters week 17.

In 2012, the Cowboys could have easily beaten Baltimore (among others) and beaten a young Washington team at home on a short week and the week 17 game wouldn't have mattered.

Everyone says it's a disadvantage, but look at this way: In back to back seasons, the Cowboys have had an opportunity to render one road divisional game completely meaningless. That's actually an advantage for a good team.

[Reality]

Originally Posted by Risen Star

Doesn't matter to me. It all evens out in the end. If you're good enough, you'll get through it and make the playoffs.

That's how I look at it. Each year when I see the schedule and see the last regular season game is on the road against a division opponent, the first thought that goes through my mind is that I hope the Cowboys win enough before then so that game will not matter. That said, good teams win so the schedule order really does not matter in that respect.

/reality

[DBOY3141]

It's all about ratings. I go back to the last two years.

2011 - 1st game. Dallas coming off a 6-10 record. Jets and New England hate each other and both are coming off playoff years. Why have the Jets play the Cowboys??

2012 - Giants are Super Bowl champs. Dallas is coming off a 8-8 record. Giants could have played either Green Bay who was SB champs the year prior or had a rematch of the NFC championship game with the Niners.

The Cowboys starting on the road and ending on the road is all about marketing and money.

I realize that everyone has to play 16 games, but it's getting a little stupid.

Originally Posted by Future

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[AMERICAS_FAN]

its irrelevant since teams play all of their divisional opponents twice, once at home, then secondly away, and after 16 seasonsl games the finsl W-L outcomes of games are weighted equally regardless of WHEN and WHERE the games were played.

[ksadler1]

If our home field was that much of an advantage this might concern me. But we're a weaker team at home IMO than on the road. It's almost embarrassing how bad we play at home most of the time.....

[ufcrules1]

Originally Posted by Reality

That's how I look at it. Each year when I see the schedule and see the last regular season game is on the road against a division opponent, the first thought that goes through my mind is that I hope the Cowboys win enough before then so that game will not matter. That said, good teams win so the schedule order really does not matter in that respect.

/reality

My thoughts exactly. We have to stop wishing for this or wishing for that... just deliver on the field and control our own destiny.

[Risen Star]

Originally Posted by Reality

That's how I look at it. Each year when I see the schedule and see the last regular season game is on the road against a division opponent, the first thought that goes through my mind is that I hope the Cowboys win enough before then so that game will not matter. That said, good teams win so the schedule order really does not matter in that respect.

/reality

That is the flip side of that. Yeah, we're on the road in the finale, but that means we've played all our home games before that and hopefully we can win enough to make the finale meaningless.

[DFWJC]

The question was: does anyone find it unusual that Dallas would play a road division game as the last game of the season almost every year?

And by the way, if we win the New Orleans game this year, for example, the final game still has the exact same meaning.
Even if we had won the Washington game earlier, the last game would still have been do or die....unless we had also had a a second extra win.

In the end, the team was lucky to even be in the race at the end. They were just an average team.

[Risen Star]

Originally Posted by DFWJC

The question was: does anyone find it unusual that Dallas would play a road division game as the last game of the season.

And by the way, if we win the New Orleans game this year, for example, the final game still has the exact same meaning.
Even if we had won the Washington game earlier, the last game would still have been do or die....unless we had also had a a second extra win.

In the end, the team was lucky to even be in the race at the end. They were just an average team.

It is certainly weird.

I don't have the numbers in front of me but it seems like we're on the road a lot for the season opener too.

[hairic]

Something happened 1989, like they're making up for previous misbalance.

Past 42 seasons (1972-2012), last divisional game of the season (not necessarily week 17):

Home: 22 of 42 (52%)
Away: 20 of 42 (48%)

1989-2012:

Home: 8 of 25 (32%)
Away: 17 of 25 (68%)

1972-1988:

Home: 14 of 17 (82.4%)
Away: 3 of 17 (17.6%)

2001-2012:

Home: 3 of 12 (25%)
Away: 9 of 12 (75%)

I could have done the full history, but nope, back to algorithms.

[mldardy]

Originally Posted by Risen Star

It is certainly weird.

I don't have the numbers in front of me but it seems like we're on the road a lot for the season opener too.

The last time we opened the season at home was 2007 before that it was 2003. We've had two home openers since 2002. I don't think any other team in the league has had this few. It would be nice to have the opener at home next season. I don't care how bad we've been at home I'd still rather be playing at home than on the road especially in the opening game of the season.