A Look At The Value Of Our Draft Picks - Dallas Cowboys Forum

Qwickdraw · 04-26-2005

I found this an interesting way of looking at the incredible value we gained in this draft if anyone can understand how I went about it. I used 2 Draft websites that I like to form an avaerage, consensus rank from their rankings for each position and an average selction # using their mock drafts.
(DSC)= Draftshowcase.com. (DCD)= NFLDraftcountdown.com.

Demarcus Ware:
(DSC rank)- 4th
(DSC mock)- #11
(DCD rank)- 5th
(DCD mock)- #11
1st DE selection at #11
Average rank- 4.5, Difference of -3.5
Average selection- 11, Difference of 0

Marcus Spears:
(DSC rank)- 2nd
(DSC mock)- #17
(DCD rank)- 2nd
(DCD mock)- #20
4th DE selection at #20
Average rank- 2, Difference of +2
Average selection- 18.5, Difference of +1.5

Kevin Burnett:
(DSC rank)- 2nd
(DSC mock)- #31
(DCD rank)- 2nd
(DCD mock)- #36
2nd OLB selection at #42
Average rank- 2, Difference of 0
Average selection- 33.5, Difference of +8.5

Marion Barber:
(DSC rank)- 8th
(DSC mock)- #63
(DCD rank)- 8th
(DCD mock)- #96
9th RB selection at #109
Average rank- 8, Difference of +1
Average selection- 79.5, Difference of +29.5

Chris Canty:
(DSC rank)- 11th
(DSC mock)- #102
(DCD rank)- 9th
(DCD mock)- #67
10th DE selection at #132
Average rank- 10, Difference of 0
Average selection- 84.5, Difference of +47.5

Justin Beriault:
(DSC rank)- 15th
(DCD rank)- 9th
12th FS selection at #208
Average rank- 12, Difference of 0

Rob Petitti:
(DSC rank)- 19th
(DCD rank)- 12th
19th OT selection at #209
Average rank- 15.5, Difference of +3.5

If you were at all able to understand the formula used here, you should clearly be able to see that Ware is the only pick which could be considered a reach of sorts but being that I have heard several teams say Ware was in their top 5 and the statements BP made about him, I myself don't consider him that. (Not mention, have you seen his highlight video? Unbelievable!)

All of the other picks were either taken exactly when they should have or later making them more of a value the further they fell. Just look at what an amazing value Barber and Canty were at their respective draft selections.

Also, just for chuckles, here's how my Street & Smith's Draft Guide had our guys ranked:
Demarcus Ware-
ranked 10th among DEs we took him 1st.
Marcus Spears-
ranked 3rd among DEs, we took him 4th.
Kevin Burnett-
ranked 3rd among OLBs, we took him 2nd.
Marion Barber-
ranked 5th among RBs, we took him 9th.
Chris Canty-
ranked 7th among DEs, we took him 10th.
Rob Petitti-
ranked 9th among OTs, we took him 19th.

Qwickdraw · 04-26-2005

I saw in many places that Burnett was ranked in the 1st round.
I saw in many places that Canty was ranked in the 1st-2nd round.
I saw in many places that Barber was ranked in the 2nd-3rd round.
I saw in many places that Petitti was ranked in the 4th round.

KDWilliams85 · 04-26-2005

It all varies on perception of need against the value of their talent and depth at position. If you want to place value on the picks, here's how it would break down:

Demarcus Ware has no value. Here's why: We need him and his talent is equal to or greater than need. He has no place to go because he's a priority.

Marcus Spears has no value. He has none for the same reason that Demarcus Ware has no value. He addresses a priority and talented enough to do so.

Kevin Burnett has positive value. The depth at the linebacker position was seemingly two-timed with the addition of Ware which made Burnett seem less like a priority but more of a coveted convenience.

Marion Barber has immense value. He was a steal in the 4th. If scouts in the league had him pegged as a starter in the league and we nab him as a backup to JJ, then his value skyrockets because of his skills and impact as a player.

Chris Canty has negative value. Depth at the position is always good but this kid is vying for a spot that Spears already has and Ellis has locked away. His effectiveness is limited to the rotation and not by need.

Justin Beriault has positive value. Some teams had him pegged pretty high on the second day and to be snatched in the late 6th seems as an injustice. However, since the FS position is a need and he can seemingly address that, his value is increased.

Ron Pettiti has tweener value. Depending on the opportunity that he can get in training camp, his value will be higher or lower accordingly. If Tucker and Rogers can duke it out for that spot and be a force doing it, Pettiti slides down the chain of competition. If he blows both of them out, his value skyrockets.

Jeremiah Ratliff has tweener value. Ratliff has the physical tools to play inside but in most likeliness he'll stick at the end. That gives him negative value due to him being in a rotation instead of him coming in and being pegged a starter. He can have positive value for the same reason he can have negative value. He's in a rotation and he can play to prove himself.

Those how the draft day picks value out to be.

Qwickdraw · 04-26-2005

Your value status seems to be based upon our team's current holes and needs.
My value status was in relation to the draft. In relation to where a player was valued as a good pick. The spot at which he was worthy of being chosen based upon who was left on the board. Players who were chosen after they should have been are a value. The later a player is chosen versus where he should have been taken increases his value. Sorry, I can't say a player is not valuable just because there is a need for a player of his position on a team.

Chris Canty has negative value? What are you smokin? Your Canty statement is incorrect, I believe. In a 3-4, the DEs are required to repeatedly take on double-teams along with their normal duties. In a 3-4, it is necessary to have a consatnt rotation of guys to play or they will tire twice as fast as they would have in an alternate scheme. Should Canty become fully healthy, he will see the field alot to spell certain players as well as to give the opposing Offensive lines different players to try and contain.

KDWilliams85 · 04-26-2005

QwickDraw, I didn't say that he's a bad player. I said that he has negative value based on current need against the depth of the position.

Why stack a 3rd DE when you've already gotten two? The pick itself is bad based on my system but the player is by no means a reflection of value.

Qwickdraw · 04-26-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by KDWilliams85

QwickDraw, I didn't say that he's a bad player. I said that he has negative value based on current need against the depth of the position.

Why stack a 3rd DE when you've already gotten two? The pick itself is bad based on my system but the player is by no means a reflection of value.

Because you're switching to a 3-4 for which you lack the personnel. Prior to this draft, we had maybe 1 prototypical 3-4 DE in Kenyon Coleman. That's about 3 shy of making a worthy rotation for a 3-4.

KDWilliams85 · 04-26-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qwickdraw

Because you're switching to a 3-4 for which you lack the personnel. Prior to this draft, we had maybe 1 prototypical 3-4 DE in Kenyon Coleman. That's about 3 shy of making a worthy rotation for a 3-4.

From the man himself, a definite switch to 3-4 hasn't been acknowledged. Jason Ferguson has hinted that we'll use it more, nothing else. Until you hear Parcells say that there's a definite switch, it's irresponsible to get hyped over a defensive incongruence from a public/media outlet that jumps the gun.

As for making a rotation, you're right. Lord in Heaven knows we have to have 5 or more legitimate DE's vying for a spot that they are going to make whether they play or not. Nobody in their right mind invests that high of a pick and not plays them. Canty making this team is a lock unless he does something moronic like the whole AB incident. You can mark it.

Here's the depth chart for a worst case scenario in terms of defensive alignment:

LDE - Ellis, Coleman, Canty
RDE - Spears, Ware, Ogbogu
DT - Glover, Blade
DT - Ferguson, Carson
OLB - Burnett, Thornton
ILB - Nguyen, O'Neal
OLB - Singleton, James
CB - Newman, Glenn, Frazier, Reeves
CB - Henry, Hunter, Thornton, Jones
FS - Beriault, Davis, Dantzler
SS - Williams, Scott

That's a 4-3 alignment. As you can see, Canty is behind Coleman and Ellis. Granted Coleman isn't that good and Canty could easily beat him, experience on the team gives him a higher spot.

Now here's a 3-4 alignment:

LDE - Ellis, Canty, Coleman
NT - Ferguson, Glover, Blade, Carson
RDE - Spears, Ogbogu
OLB - Ware, Burnett
ILB - Nguyen, O'Neal
ILB - O'Neal, Nguyen
OLB - Singleton, James, Thornton
CB - Newman, Glenn, Reeves, Reeves
CB - Henry, Jones, Thornton, Frazier
FS - Beriault, Davis, Dantzler
SS - Williams, Scott

As you can see, Canty still won't threaten the lineup. He may break in if he gets to be on the strong side with Spears but I doubt it.

Closing Point

Canty isn't a bad player but Dallas picking him is. He can turn out to be a great player but that isn't in question. Stacking a position like that is bad for business. They won't get enough reps when it counts to make an impact.

There's only three rookies that have a legit chance of starting and those are Ware, Spears, and Burnett. Canty won't break the lineup unless misfortune befalls half of that front 7.

Qwickdraw · 04-26-2005

I think you would do better to think of Canty as almost the same as Spears.
Prior to Canty's injuries (only a few months ago) he was considered a late first round choice, was in the top 10 DEs in the draft and was the only other prototypical 3-4 DE in the top tier of this draft. Hence his "value" by slipping into the 4th round from the late 1st, early 2nd due to his injuries. If he fully recovers from his injuries, he is the equivalent of getting a second 3-4 DE who would have been worthy of an early 1st day pick.

I'm not sure why you brought up the AB incident but Canty is not a "bad seed". HIs bar-brawl accident may look that way but I have seen alot of this guy and haven't seen or heard anything that would lead me to believe that he is trouble. Furthermore, Al Groh of VA would know full well that BP isn't into to thugs and troublemakers and BP would have been well informed of it if he was.

In your lineups, you have Blade as a backup for NT/DT. Blade tore an achilles while in NFL Europe and will not be eligible for the 2005 season. You also have Ogbogu as a backup 3-4 DE. While a possiblity, I don't see him being an option for a 3-4 DE. He is undersized and is a 4-3 situational pass rusher at best.

My point once again is that the starting lineup in a 3-4 will have to be rotated regularly throughout games in order to keep the DEs and NT fresh because they have alot of double-teams and duties to fulfill. Canty has just as much of a chance as Spears to play on this team, day one, if his injuries heal.

And yes, we are going a 3-4. Permanently? Well I guess I can't say that for sure but in my mind, there's no doubt our base defense will be a 3-4. Listen to Jerry's reasoning for drafting the guys we did, look at BPs history and look at the draft/offseason. Ferguson is a standard NT. Spears was our biggest target. If we were going 4-3, the Howard deal would have occured or Abraham would be here. Or we would have been targeting the likes of Erasmus James. Why else would we trade up for a calculated risk like Canty? Are you aware that UVA ran a 3-4 with Canty as their DE? Why were Jerry and BP so impressed by Ware's Senior Bowl performance in which he showed he could play OLB if we wanted him to play DE?

I still don't see how stacking any position is bad for business especially when you require a different type of player than what you currently have due to a scheme change. You do realize that some players will be cut anyhow so stacking a position is done to increase the competition and liklihood of getting the best final group of guys you can?

The funniest part is... prior to all of the hype and workouts, Canty was ranked higher than Ware on all draft boards for DEs based solely on Collegiate performance and "value".

KDWilliams85 · 04-26-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qwickdraw

I think you would do better to think of Canty as almost the same as Spears.
Prior to Canty's injuries (only a few months ago) he was considered a late first round choice, was in the top 10 DEs in the draft and was the only other prototypical 3-4 DE in the top tier of this draft. Hence his "value" by slipping into the 4th round from the late 1st, early 2nd due to his injuries. If he fully recovers from his injuries, he is the equivalent of getting a second 3-4 DE who would have been worthy of an early 1st day pick.

I'm not sure why you brought up the AB incident but Canty is not a "bad seed". HIs bar-brawl accident may look that way but I have seen alot of this guy and haven't seen or heard anything that would lead me to believe that he is trouble. Furthermore, Al Groh of VA would know full well that BP isn't into to thugs and troublemakers and BP would have been well informed of it if he was.

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1st Paragraph

I agree with you totally. Canty was a top 32 pick if it weren't for his injuries. That goes with my stance on the "Bad pick, not bad player" topic. I'm not taking away from his ability. I'm on him because of opportunity. Would you wanna play for a team that you knew going in that you weren't going to play as much as you feel you should?

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I brought up the AB incident not because he's a risk off the field. I brought it up because he's a risk on the field. A player that is as highly regarded as he is would probably have the mindset that he should at least get an opportunity to start. Canty would have found more success initially with Cleveland than he would in Dallas due to them being depleted on the line. Canty doesn't have the opportunity in Dallas as he would in Cleveland and that's what I'm trying to convey. While being in a rotation helps, it doesn't change that he has starter-type talent on a team that doesn't need it. Canty is more of a convenience than a necessity here. He'd be a perceptual need in Cleveland.

3rd Paragraph

I wasn't aware that Blade had busted himself up like that so my rotations would change based on that. Ogbogu is a lot like Ware. He'll be stuck in the lineup based on the formation instead of his actual position. Which actually kinda stiffs them...

4th Paragraph

I'll say it again. Personnel stacking does not give a clear indication as to his plans. That's you jumping the gun. I can stack 300+ pound DE's just to do it. I can do it to use them as linebackers and clog up a line so bad that a play doesn't get out from the line of scrimmage. Does it make sense? No. Does it have to? No. Do I care what you think? No. It'd be my defense to run as I saw fit.

Erasmus James, John Abraham, or Darren Howard don't entail anything other than the acquisition themselves. It's those people to add their take on something that it isn't their place to make that skew the perception to that we're going to this, this, or this because of this, this, or this reason. For all you know, we can permanently use the 4-3 defense and use Ware as a OLB. We'd have Spears as a complement to Ellis that would make the defense fearful. Ware and Burnett would be respective complements in the LB corps.

Closing Paragraph

Am I glad that we have Canty? Yes. Am I happy for him? No, because he has no legitimate opportunity. If we had told Ellis that he's fired, I'd be happy for him. Why? Because he has an opportunity to start for this team. Right now he doesn't. He's a convenience on a team that doesn't particularly need him.

Put yourself in his shoes: You were drafted by a team that has depth at the position. You were projected as a 1st/2nd round pick. The team that drafted you tells you flatout that you won't have the chance to compete for a starting job. Would you express some concerns as to your position? Would you want an equal opportunity as those guys that are above you?

Canty doesn't have that luxury in Dallas. He knows it. Parcells knows it. Jerry Jones knows it.

That's the point of this whole thing. He has no opportunity unless something very unlikely happens. In which case, he's still potentially screwed because he himself may not be ready.

Qwickdraw · 04-26-2005

Canty has every opportunity to start here. It's up to him to win it or lose it. Training camp will show how much and how soon and BP will play the best available option.
Cleveland? Cleveland had evry chance to draft Canty just like the rest of the NFL and chose not to. We did. I don't think Canty feels shortchanged or bitter by any stretch. He was drafted. I'm sure he's thankful to have a job period. Given his questionmark health status, he should know that for him to even be able to compete for an NFL job is a blessing. And I dare say he isn't happy to be a Cowboy. His coach at UVA is good friends with BP and I'm sure he like most young players would jump at the chance to play for BP.

At any case, this entire discussion began on the topic of value. The value of the players Dallas acquired by being patient and informed as well as knowing what they wanted. Your statement about how "valuable" he would be for Cleveland only further supports my thought of how valuable he is for us. If we have guys that could start for another team but are backups on ours, that's a valuable commodity to have. The fact that we threw a mere dime into the Canty slot machine which may return huge dividends is "valuable".

When a guy like Tom Brady falls to you at pick #150, that's a high value pick because you didn't spend much and got alot in return.

We'll just have to agree to disagree but please note that just because we have established productive starters on this team like Ellis and Glover, doesn't mean we will still have them in August. And I'm sure Canty, if healthy, has every opprtunity to take a job from someone.

And I guarantee we run a 3-4 this year. Save this post and read it in September.

Scotman · 04-26-2005

KDWilliams,

I'm not even sure where to go with all your comments other than to say I can not follow your sense of logic. Quickdraw spent a lot of time putting together some draft value numbers just to see how it would work out on paper. I'm sure he realizes his process isn't scientific or foolproof but it was interesting at any rate. (Thanks for the work Quickdraw). But you response is just plain silly, or I am just unable to follow your reasoning.

Quickdraw tried to quantify the value of our draft selections. You tried to place an arbitrary value based on your opinion as to whether or not the pick met a need. Your comments about "stacking" positions creating negative value is without merit. It has been widely stated that many feel it will only increase the opportunities for Glover and Ellis because they will no longer have to aplay a number of plays that are in excess of their ability. It also decreases the pressure for an injured rookie to rush back onto the field risking more severe and permanent damage.

If you want your arguements to have any validity, do exactly what Quickdraw did. Gather a number of other resources (other than your own opinion) that support your "value system." Put together those numbers and bring them here.

Quickdraw, again, thanks for the effort. My only suggestion, Because I'm sure you have all the time in the world to work on this

, is to use more than 2 mock drafts. Interesting read.
Scot

Qwickdraw · 04-26-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scotman

KDWilliams,

I'm not even sure where to go with all your comments other than to say I can not follow your sense of logic. Quickdraw spent a lot of time putting together some draft value numbers just to see how it would work out on paper. I'm sure he realizes his process isn't scientific or foolproof but it was interesting at any rate. (Thanks for the work Quickdraw). But you response is just plain silly, or I am just unable to follow your reasoning.

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Thank you Scot.
I'm glad to see someone else was thrown aside by the left turn this thread took. I was simply intending on showing our draft value through an elementary formula just for kicks.
I actually wanted to use more than 2 mocks, but only knew of 2 that were somewhat reasonable and had at least 3 rounds of mock in them. Most sources only have a first round mock.
Thanks again for enduring this thread and I hope it was somehow informative.

KDWilliams85 · 04-26-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qwickdraw

Canty has every opportunity to start here. It's up to him to win it or lose it. Training camp will show how much and how soon and BP will play the best available option.
Cleveland? Cleveland had evry chance to draft Canty just like the rest of the NFL and chose not to. We did. I don't think Canty feels shortchanged or bitter by any stretch. He was drafted. I'm sure he's thankful to have a job period. Given his questionmark health status, he should know that for him to even be able to compete for an NFL job is a blessing. And I dare say he isn't happy to be a Cowboy. His coach at UVA is good friends with BP and I'm sure he like most young players would jump at the chance to play for BP.

No, he doesn't. His best shot at a legitimate chance to start is if Ware stays a permanent OLB and Spears goes down with an injury. Both are possibilities but Ware being an OLB has a higher chance of happening.

Quote:

At any case, this entire discussion began on the topic of value. The value of the players Dallas acquired by being patient and informed as well as knowing what they wanted. Your statement about how "valuable" he would be for Cleveland only further supports my thought of how valuable he is for us. If we have guys that could start for another team but are backups on ours, that's a valuable commodity to have. The fact that we threw a mere dime into the Canty slot machine which may return huge dividends is "valuable".

You still think of it like I'm knocking Canty's ability. I'm not. I'm knocking the pick. I don't think them trading to get him was a good idea. That's all.

Quote:

When a guy like Tom Brady falls to you at pick #150, that's a high value pick because you didn't spend much and got alot in return.

Are you a psychic? Because I just heard you say that if we skipped out on him in 2000, we would have had three Super Bowl rings. Brady's success was dependant on Bledsoe getting hurt. You can plan for injury but you can't foresee it. Not to mention all you have to go on at the time is scouting reports. You have no idea as to the social aspect of his game. You wouldn't know how he'd react to the team that drafts him.

Quote:

We'll just have to agree to disagree but please note that just because we have established productive starters on this team like Ellis and Glover, doesn't mean we will still have them in August. And I'm sure Canty, if healthy, has every opprtunity to take a job from someone.

Agreed. But not from Ellis and Glover. But from someone. Those someone's being Coleman and Ogbogu. That's still not a fair shake but he gets a better chance to demonstrate his talents. His opportunity is dependant on many things that quite frankly don't have a likelihood of success.

Quote:

And I guarantee we run a 3-4 this year. Save this post and read it in September.

You sound awfully confident. Let's make a wager on that. If the Cowboys don't run 3-4 on every down of every game except for special teams, you owe me $100 per game. If they do, I'll go to your house, kiss your ***, and proclaim you a defensive guru. How's that sound?

All I'm saying is that Canty doesn't have the opportunity you give him. He doesn't have the opportunity he should have. You don't pay Ellis, Glover, and Ferguson big money to ride the pine.

KDWilliams85 · 04-26-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scotman

KDWilliams,

I'm not even sure where to go with all your comments other than to say I can not follow your sense of logic. Quickdraw spent a lot of time putting together some draft value numbers just to see how it would work out on paper. I'm sure he realizes his process isn't scientific or foolproof but it was interesting at any rate. (Thanks for the work Quickdraw). But you response is just plain silly, or I am just unable to follow your reasoning.

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I can sum this up in one nifty little paragraph.

My logic is this: I'm not judging the players. I'm judging the logic of the pick. Canty is a good player. Do we need him? No. Is he a welcomed convenience. YES! Does that make the player bad? No. Does it question the logic of the pick? YES! Canty is a good player. Did we draft him under the premise that he's going to start day one? No. Did we draft him under the premise that he can help us? YES!

Afterthought:

You and Qwickdraw seem to think that player skill, placement in the draft, and team need are the same thing. They're not. If they were, it would go down to the social element of things. If they were, everyone would be on a level playing field and there wouldn't be an order to things. There wouldn't be a draft. There'd only be a big pool of players and whoever gets ahold them first, gets them. Ironically enough, that's what the draft is. The draft adds a business aspect to a concept that doesn't and shouldn't need one. The draft is a formality that defines who goes where. That's all. Other than that, it is completely meaningless when it comes time to play. It doesn't make sense to place disparity on a concept that becomes meaningless on opening kickoff. Because then, they're all football players and the draft is long over.

You two place value on the PLAYER and not the pick. Value on the pick is how it works.

Qwickdraw · 04-26-2005

What makes Spears and Canty so different?
Why is Spears going to start for sure in your mind, yet Canty doesn't have a chance?
It doesn't make sense.
Why? Becasue one was drafted higher than the other?
That's ridiculous.
Spears and Canty are in the same boat. Both are rookies. Both are similar in size and ability. Spears may have a leg up because he's entitled to a littled more money. But Canty has a leg up because he has more experience in a 3-4 defense. Both could make the team. Both could start. One could get cut. Both could get cut. You don't know and neither do I. But we do know that both have a chance to compete for a job.

I noticed your little wager requires us to run a 3-4 every play of every game. You don't sound too confident seeing as how last year, we were a 4-3 defense and still ran a 3-4 on occasion. Do you think I'm a moron? I'd have to be to take that bet. I will however bet you any amount you prefer that we run a 3-4 more often than last year and continually increase the amount we use it throughout BPs stay here and it will ultimately be our base defense before his time here is up.

And I never said Canty would steal a job from Ellis or Glover. (Although, he could) I said Ellis or Glover may not be here come August.