Profootball Prospectus good for Boys - Dallas Cowboys Forum

Gent · 08-03-2005

The team at FootballOutsiders.com has just released Profootball Prospectus, their first book giving detailed statistical analysis of all teams along with projections for 05. It's an impressive piece of work and nicely written. Other than KC Joyner's Scientific Football, I'm not aware of anything else like it. And at $13 it's definitely a better buy.

Profootball Prospectus uses a system that tracks the specific conditions under which each play occurs. That way a team/unit/player's performance can be compared to how other teams did in the exact same situation. This is expressed as a Value Over Average (VOA) percentage that is positive for a good offensive performance and negative for a good defensive effort. The system has worked well for them. Last year their predictions were more accurate than any other major sports website or magazine. These results included correctly predicting that the 4-12 Chargers would have one of the top offenses in 2004.

Their 2005 prospectus is high on the Cowboys. The projections break down as follows:

0-4 Wins: 10% probability
5-6 Wins: 15%
7-8 Wins: 23%
9-10 Wins: 24%
11+ Wins: 28%

In other words, a 75% probability that we will win more games than last season and a better than 50% probability that we will make the playoffs. They make us clear favorites to finish second in the division behind the Eagles (who are a lock for the playoffs). Washington is given a 72% chance of winning less than 9 games.

Their analysis of the Boys 2004 defense makes sense. Our run D was 6th in the league for quarters 1-3, and then quite bad in the 4th. This is no doubt due to our lack of rotation. The pass D was uniformly horrible across all quarters. Given our improved depth and secondary, Profootball Outsiders expects our 2005 defense to look much closer to the 2003 version.

On offense there is a surprise. Turns out we weren't really that bad last year, just unlucky. The passing offense was above average on 1st and 2nd down, but terrible on third down. This is a statistical anomaly: the law of averages says we should be equally good (or bad) on all downs, given enough plays. (Remember these averages take into account the specific situations we faced.) Over a 16 game season it is possible to have a bad luck streak on 3rd downs. This turns out to be a strong indicator for a turn-around the next season, and it was the major factor in the Outsiders' prediction of the Chargers offensive performance last year. In other words, even with the same personnel (and injuries), our passing offense should be better this year due simply to better luck.

All in all, this book is a great read. I highly recommend it. Along with KC's Scientific Football, I think Prospectus marks 2005 as a sort of turning point in football analysis.

-Gent

Asklesko · 08-03-2005

Basically, 50/50 chance that Dallas will be a good team.

Wimbo · 08-03-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gent

On offense there is a surprise. Turns out we weren't really that bad last year, just unlucky.

Not trying to undermine a good post... but this came to mind:

A couple of days ago Parcells was talking about the team last year. He said that there were several games last year that we were close to winning, and the record could have been much different in our favor. Then he said (paraphrasing), "But the team wasn't better than it's record."

Chocolate Lab · 08-03-2005

Very encouraging... Thanks for the post, Gent!

BTW... You aren't Pete, are you?

2much2soon · 08-03-2005

I love "locks" in the NFL (or anywhere else for that matter).
Like all the teams that make the SB one year and don't make the playoffs the next. They are all usually "locks" to make it at least to the playoffs if not the SB again.

Yakuza Rich · 08-03-2005

Yeah, I got this book about 2 weeks ago. It's a great read and worth the buy. From the looks of it, it projects the division to go:

Philly
Dallas (playoff team)
New York
Washington

Also projects Julius to gain over 1,500 yards this season.

Rich........

Sifillest · 08-03-2005

where can this book be purchased in texas?

LeonDixson · 08-03-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yakuza Rich

Yeah, I got this book about 2 weeks ago. It's a great read and worth the buy. From the looks of it, it projects the division to go:

Philly
Dallas (playoff team)
New York
Washington

Also projects Julius to gain over 1,500 yards this season.

Rich........

Peter King predicts Julius to gain over 1,500 yards this season too, in SI's fantasy football preview.

**Idgit** · 08-03-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sifillest

where can this book be purchased in texas?

I'm pretty sure books are illegal in Texas.

**big dog cowboy** · 08-03-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wimbo

A couple of days ago Parcells was talking about the team last year. He said that there were several games last year that we were close to winning, and the record could have been much different in our favor.

Yea well there were a few games last year we were close to losing as well.

Billy Bullocks · 08-03-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gent

Their analysis of the Boys 2004 defense makes sense. Our run D was 6th in the league for quarters 1-3, and then quite bad in the 4th. This is no doubt due to our lack of rotation. The pass D was uniformly horrible across all quarters. Given our improved depth and secondary, Profootball Outsiders expects our 2005 defense to look much closer to the 2003 version.

Definately. In fact, I think our defense will be better in a football sense than our D was in 2003. We may not be statistically #1 again, but the main difference is we appear to have playmakers now. Newman is going to turn some heads, Roy will play where he belongs and makes plays, and I really see Ware doing what we drafted him too. That already makes us better.