What a 3-1 start means for the Cowboys. (Parcells and 2004 team % with 3-1 start) - Dallas Cowboys Forum

TruBlueCowboy · 10-01-2005

I was checking out some stats and 12 teams in 2004 began the season with a 3-1 start. 9 of those teams made the Playoffs! 75% of the teams with a 3-1 record were at least in a wild card game.

I was checking Parcells' season record after good starts. With his 4 teams, he has had 6 seasons with a start of 3-1 or better, specifically, 4 seasons of 3-1 starts. He has never failed to reach the Playoffs when starting at a 3-1 or better record. His chance of a team entering the Playoffs after a 2-2 start is slightly better than 50%.

If the Cowboys can jump to an early 3-1 start, I think we have a great shot at the Playoffs. Especially because this team has so many young guys getting significant minutes, who are only going to improve as the year goes on.

TheSkaven · 10-01-2005

We started off 5-1 in 2003 and ended 10-6 with a bounce out in the playoffs. I'd sure like to get back to the playoffs, but I want to make some noise when we get there. It'd be nice to win this game, but the game against Philly at home is a BIG game.

percyhoward · 10-01-2005

What's funny is that, before the season, most of us predicted we'd be 3-1 after four weeks.

Im still waiting for the win (or loss) that will tell us where we are as a team, and I'm thinking this week's game isn't it.

**jobberone** · 10-01-2005

I think this is exactly the kind of team for us to fear. An offense who can beat you through the air and with big passes.

That's been our greatest weakness IMO so I think this game is huge from that standpoint. If we cannot keep teams from exploiting our inability to stop big plays especially at critical points then you will have a better idea what kind of team this is.

I don't think this team can't grow so I'm not saying this is do or die. But until we stop this disturbing trend than we are going to be in nailbiters, last minute losses and forced into big comebacks to stay in games.

TruBlueCowboy · 10-01-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSkaven

We started off 5-1 in 2003 and ended 10-6 with a bounce out in the playoffs. I'd sure like to get back to the playoffs, but I want to make some noise when we get there. It'd be nice to win this game, but the game against Philly at home is a BIG game.

You can say that again. It seems like the last 3 Playoff appearances have all been forgetable. Wacked by Carolina and Minnesota, and shocked by Arizona. It's been a long time since I've watched a Cowboys Playoff game that made some noise.

Maybe it's the homer in me, but I think this team won't hit a glass ceiling like the last Parcells team, if it can get off to a good start. That team didn't have nearly as many effective vets as this team, and the scrubs have been replaced by young guys with a lot of potential at many positions. Here's hoping....

TruBlueCowboy · 10-01-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by percyhoward

What's funny is that, before the season, most of us predicted we'd be 3-1 after four weeks.

Im still waiting for the win (or loss) that will tell us where we are as a team, and I'm thinking this week's game isn't it.

It's the week after this. Philly-dellll-phia. Time to bring it against the defending NFC Champs and a team that has made a mockery of its NFC East opponents for several years now. McNabb is hurt. We all remember what happened last time he was hurt early in the year in 2003.

TruBlueCowboy · 10-01-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by jobberone

I think this is exactly the kind of team for us to fear. An offense who can beat you through the air and with big passes.

That's been our greatest weakness IMO so I think this game is huge from that standpoint. If we cannot keep teams from exploiting our inability to stop big plays especially at critical points then you will have a better idea what kind of team this is.

I don't think this team can't grow so I'm not saying this is do or die. But until we stop this disturbing trend than we are going to be in nailbiters, last minute losses and forced into big comebacks to stay in games.

For me, this is the game that determines if we've fixed that damn secondary. If Oakland destroys us, I have a feeling other teams will copy the Raiders, 49ers, and Redskins and just beat us deep like last year.

FLcowboy · 10-01-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by percyhoward

What's funny is that, before the season, most of us predicted we'd be 3-1 after four weeks.

Im still waiting for the win (or loss) that will tell us where we are as a team, and I'm thinking this week's game isn't it.

I think most people were "HOPING" for a 3-1 record, thinking it was doable with some breaks.

TheSkaven · 10-01-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by TruBlueCowboy

Maybe it's the homer in me, but I think this team won't hit a glass ceiling like the last Parcells team, if it can get off to a good start. That team didn't have nearly as many effective vets as this team, and the scrubs have been replaced by young guys with a lot of potential at many positions. Here's hoping....

It's tough, the NFC East is a lot better than it was in 2003 or 2004. We've already guaranteed a split with the Redskins, the Giants' look much improved, and the Eagles are still the favorites (though I think they're spiraling back to Earth).

I really like this team on paper, I hope they play to their potential and get things together as the season goes along. An upset next week at home against Philly would be *HUGE*.

Billy Bullocks · 10-01-2005

If we play like the first 115 minutes of the season, and the 4th qtr of the 49ers game, we win no doubt. but if we come out flat, Moss and Co. will torch us. What scares me about Oakland is that no lead is safe. Jones needs to come out and keep the defense off the field.

**MichaelWinicki** · 10-01-2005

We have to split the next two weeks at worst. Lose both and we're headed towards a .500 season I do believe.