Trading down? Oh, jeez...

[Future]

i am very impressed with that gbrittain

but i cant imagine that every draft was that succesful

[gbrittain]

Originally Posted by Future 585

i am very impressed with that gbrittain

but i cant imagine that every draft was that succesful

I would agree with that. Understand one thing, I did not selectively pick a year that I knew would go one way or the other. I wanted to pick the most rescent draft that could be judged somewhat, therefore the three years.

I would venture to say that most years will bare out similiar percentages.

[AdamJT13]

Originally Posted by gbrittain

All in all, the notion that the first round picks are overrated is well...overrrated. If you want your best shot at an impact player you are most likely to find that person in the 1st round.

But you're also paying a much higher cost and taking a much bigger risk, which aren't worth it, on average. Last year, two economists published research of NFL draft picks that found that the most efficient picks over the long haul are in the middle of the second round. The production from those players, on average, wasn't much lower than that of first-round picks, but the cost and risk involved was much lower.

[DCBoysfan]

Originally Posted by CrazyCowboy

Jeff Ireland will take care of everything!

we need to trust they have a plan.

[speedkilz88]

I would feel better about a trade down if they had a better track record with second round picks.

[gbrittain]

Originally Posted by AdamJT13

But you're also paying a much higher cost and taking a much bigger risk, which aren't worth it, on average. Last year, two economists published research of NFL draft picks that found that the most efficient picks over the long haul are in the middle of the second round. The production from those players, on average, wasn't much lower than that of first-round picks, but the cost and risk involved was much lower.

I am not taking into account salaries. I understand that is a factor, but that is not what I am talking about.

I understand the value of the middle to late rounds as well. I am a big believer in the draft and that you should build your team through it and not free agency.

Bottom line IMO is that the better players are in the first round. Each team has seven picks in the seven rounds barring trades and compensatory picks. If I could have seven first round picks, I guarantee you that I will have the better draft three years down the road than the team that gets 7 picks from 1st to 7th round.

Now I know that sounds silly and it is. For one a team could not afford the seven first round picks, but again my point is not the cost effectiveness of first round picks, but the talent level.

For example, of all the HOFers drafted since 1970:

1st Round 30 HOFers
2nd Round 7 HOFers
3rd Round 4 HOFers
4th Round 3 HOFers
5th Round 1 HOF
6th and beyond 0 HOFers

If you want a chance at elite talent, your best bet is still in the first round.

[Joe a Cowboys fan]

[quote=gbrittain
For example, of all the HOFers drafted since 1970:

1st Round 30 HOFers
2nd Round 7 HOFers
3rd Round 4 HOFers
4th Round 3 HOFers
5th Round 1 HOF
6th and beyond 0 HOFers

If you want a chance at elite talent, your best bet is still in the first round.[/QUOTE]

Amen, our second rounders have not been all that either for the last dozen years or so. Dallas has found elite talent at all levels and even a few walk ons. So I would still double down on a pick at 18 or even higher if we can get there by hood winking some shmoe. After that you pays your money and takes your chances. There is no such thing as a sure thing and who wants to bet on how much the #1 pick and the #2 pick over all will be paid. Can you say 49 mill with 18 guaranteed although the record shows few #1s are worth that huge amount of money.

[AdamJT13]

Originally Posted by gbrittain

I am not taking into account salaries.

It's not just salaries, it's also the cost of the picks themselves. If you trade down out of the first round, you can end up with two second-round picks, plus maybe other picks, instead of just the one. If you do that, you'll be better off in the long run, on average.

Let's say we have the No. 18 pick 20 years in a row. Every other year, we keep it, and in the other years, we trade it for picks Nos. 44 and 46 (just because that balances out in the common value chart). After all of their careers ended, if you analyzed the production we got from those picks (10 players at No. 18, 10 at No. 44 and 10 at No. 46) in return for the cost (in dollars and picks), the second-round picks should have been more efficient, according to those analysts' research. For example, if the 10 first-round picks yielded three Pro Bowl players, four quality starters, two OK starters and one outright bust, the 20 second-rounders might yield four Pro Bowl players, eight quality starters, five OK starters and three busts -- and for a total dollar cost of less than the 10 first-rounders, leaving more money to sign other players and free agents.

For example, of all the HOFers drafted since 1970:

1st Round 30 HOFers
2nd Round 7 HOFers
3rd Round 4 HOFers
4th Round 3 HOFers
5th Round 1 HOF
6th and beyond 0 HOFers

If you want a chance at elite talent, your best bet is still in the first round.

The vast majority of those 30 first-round Hall of Famers -- 21 of them, to be precise -- were selected within the first eight picks of the draft. From picks Nos. 9 through 32, there were only nine Hall of Famers taken. From picks Nos. 33 through 48 (the middle of the second round these days), there were seven Hall of Famers drafted. And if you extend it through No. 64 (the end of the second round now), there were nine Hall of Famers taken. The chances of drafting a Hall of Famer in the second round is almost the same as the chances of drafting one in the first round outside the top eight picks.

So yes, you do have a better chance of getting an elite talent at the very top of the first round. But if you miss, the cost -- in pick value and in dollars -- is huge and can be extremely damaging to the team. After the top 10 or so, the talent begins to level off more than the risk does. That's why, over the long haul, picking from the middle of the second round is more efficient.

[Tass]

Originally Posted by big dog cowboy

Working the draft board.

Getting more value for the pick.

These kind of terms must be pretty foreign to you.

I guess you missed the gist of my post, smart guy. Trading down USUALLY means players who aren't as good as earlier picks. I'd take one great player over two above average ones. That concise enough for you?

[gbrittain]

Originally Posted by AdamJT13

It's not just salaries, it's also the cost of the picks themselves. If you trade down out of the first round, you can end up with two second-round picks, plus maybe other picks, instead of just the one. If you do that, you'll be better off in the long run, on average.

[View Full Quote] Let's say we have the No. 18 pick 20 years in a row. Every other year, we keep it, and in the other years, we trade it for picks Nos. 44 and 46 (just because that balances out in the common value chart). After all of their careers ended, if you analyzed the production we got from those picks (10 players at No. 18, 10 at No. 44 and 10 at No. 46) in return for the cost (in dollars and picks), the second-round picks should have been more efficient, according to those analysts' research. For example, if the 10 first-round picks yielded three Pro Bowl players, four quality starters, two OK starters and one outright bust, the 20 second-rounders might yield four Pro Bowl players, eight quality starters, five OK starters and three busts -- and for a total dollar cost of less than the 10 first-rounders, leaving more money to sign other players and free agents.



The vast majority of those 30 first-round Hall of Famers -- 21 of them, to be precise -- were selected within the first eight picks of the draft. From picks Nos. 9 through 32, there were only nine Hall of Famers taken. From picks Nos. 33 through 48 (the middle of the second round these days), there were seven Hall of Famers drafted. And if you extend it through No. 64 (the end of the second round now), there were nine Hall of Famers taken. The chances of drafting a Hall of Famer in the second round is almost the same as the chances of drafting one in the first round outside the top eight picks.

So yes, you do have a better chance of getting an elite talent at the very top of the first round. But if you miss, the cost -- in pick value and in dollars -- is huge and can be extremely damaging to the team. After the top 10 or so, the talent begins to level off more than the risk does. That's why, over the long haul, picking from the middle of the second round is more efficient.

I hear what you are saying and I am sure there is some truth to it. I still believe that the early rounds is where you get your playmakers and star players.

I fully understand the dollar cost and the value of the pick as you say. Under your scenario you are saying two second rounders are better than 1 first rounder.

For example, if the 10 first-round picks yielded three Pro Bowl players, four quality starters, two OK starters and one outright bust, the 20 second-rounders might yield four Pro Bowl players, eight quality starters, five OK starters and three busts

I dont know if you picked randon numbers for this example, but I will run with it. Under this scenario if you had an equal amount of first rounders as you did 2nd rounders then you would have:

1st Round - 6 Pro Bowl players, 8 quality starters, 4 Ok starters and 2 busts

Just for fun, I went through last years Pro Bowl roster on NFL.com and I counted 47 of the 86 Pro Bowl players were first round picks.

Again, I am not talking about value. Just pure talent. You want HOFer or Pro Bowl player type you are more likely to get that in the first round.

All things being equal meaning one pick in each round, your chances of finding a quality to star player are best in the 1st round followed by the 2nd round and so on and so forth.

[JackMagist]

Originally Posted by gbrittain

Impressive list you put together, but that is just one big giant red herring IMO.

Lets use the three year rule. Players should be "players" by their third year by most account.

Now lets go back three years and analyze the draft.

Carson Palmer Bengals - Pro Bowl caliber player
Charles Rogers Lions - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
Andre Johnson Texans - Pro Bowl caliber player
Dewayne RobertsonJets - Starter
Terence Newman Cowboys - Pro Bowl caliber player
Johnathan Sullivan Saints - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
Byron Leftwich Jaguars - Pro Bowl caliber player
Jordan Gross Panthers - Pro Bowl caliber player
Kevin Williams Vikings - Pro Bowl caliber player
Terrell Suggs Ravens - Pro Bowl caliber player
Marcus Trufant Seahawks - Starter
Jimmy Kennedy Rams - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
[View Full Quote]Ty Warren Patriots - Starter
Michael Haynes Bears - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
Jerome McDougle Eagles - Undetermined due to injuries
Troy Polamalu Steelers - Pro Bowl caliber player
Bryant Johnson Cardinals - Role player
Calvin Pace Cardinals - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
Kyle Boller Ravens - Starter
George Foster Broncos - Starter
Jeff Faine Browns - Starter. L. Bentley brought in
Rex Grossman Bears - Undetermined, due to injuries.
Willis McGahee Bills - Pro Bowl caliber player
Dallas Clark Colts - Starter
William Joseph Giants - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
Kwame Harris 49ers - Starter
Larry Johnson Chiefs- Pro Bowl caliber player
Andre Woolfolk Titans - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
Nick Barnett Packers - Starter
Sammy Davis Chargers - Starter
Nnamdi Asomugha Raiders - Starter
Tyler Brayton Raiders - Still with team, borderline bust as of now

Dennis Weathersby Bengals - Out of NFL?
Artose Pinner Role player
Todd Johnson Bears - Minimal production
Domanick Davis Texans - Pro Bowl caliber player
Montrae Holland Saints - Starter
Bradie James Cowboys - Starter
George Wrighster Jaguars - Minimal production
Onterrio Smith Vikings - Role player
Shaun McDonald Rams - Role player
DeJuan Groce Rams - Starter
Quentin Griffin Broncos - Minimal production
Jarret Johnson Ravens - Starter
Seneca Wallace Seahawks - Undetermined, back up QB
Terrence McGee Bills - Starter
Matt Wilhelm Chargers - Minimal performance
Brett Williams Chiefs - Minimal performance
Nicholas Eason Broncos - Minimal performance
Lee Suggs Browns - Role player
Ian Scott Bears - Starter
Dan Klecko Patriots - Minimal performance
Jeremi Johnson Bengals - Minimal performance
Colin Branch Panthers - Minimal performance
Asante Samuel Patriots - Starter
Justin Griffith Falcons - Starter
Steve Sciullo Colts - Out of NFL?
Roderick Babers Giants - Out of NFL?
Brandon Lloyd 49ers - Redskins made him a millionaire (Starter)
Ivan Taylor Steelers - Out of NFL?
Rien Long Titans - Role player
Sam Aiken Bills - Minimal performance
Bryant McNeal Broncos - Minimal performance
Shurron Pierson Raiders - Out of NFL?

1st Round
Pro Bowl caliber players - 10
Starters - 11
Role Players - Hard to judge if a role player among first round picks
Bust - 10

2nd Round
Pro Bowl caliber players - 1
Starters - 9
Role Players - 5
Bust - 16

I used the first round versus the fourth round, because they are both the elite rounds of their days, days one and two. Of course had I compared round 1 versus round two the results would be much closer to each other I suspect. However, that is the point to demonstrate that the chances of getting a solid to Pro Bowl caliber player is much better in the first round and the odds of hitting on such players goes dows as each round passes.

Now this assessment is by no means perfect. Some "Pro Bowl" caliber players are much better than others and some are starters due to lack of a capable replacement and some are starters because they are that good.

Some 1st round picks would be out of the NFL if not for their big contracts and willingness to give them just "one" more try.

Some 4th round picks are just kept around due to their cheap price over a slightly better player and special teams contributions.

All in all, the notion that the first round picks are overrated is well...overrrated. If you want your best shot at an impact player you are most likely to find that person in the 1st round.

The point was not that you didn't get better players early in the draft. The point was that there are no guarantees...10 first round bust...10 first round Pro Bowlers...it's a crap shoot.

By your stats it would seem that you don't really lose that much by moving down from #18 because if you will notice only two of your Pro Bowl caliber players in the first round came later than pick #18 (our pick this year). So if we could move down a few slots and gain another pick in the 3rd round we have a better chance of hitting on one of them.

Just to elaborate a bit more; an analysis of the second half of the 1st round shows that it does not look substantially different than the 2nd round. Someone else said earlier that there were only about 12 elite players in this draft. I think it is generally true of every draft; there are only a handful of elite players and then the talent level flattens out until the early to middle part of the 3rd round.

It is always possible that one of the elite players will fall to us and that is why you don't pull the trigger on a trade down until you are on the clock. But it is unlikely that one of those elite prospects will fall that far and if they don't then it is perfectly reasonable to trade down to try and get an extra pick in that pool of late 1st to early 3rd round talent.

[AdamJT13]

Originally Posted by gbrittain

I hear what you are saying and I am sure there is some truth to it. I still believe that the early rounds is where you get your playmakers and star players.

The second round is an early round.

I fully understand the dollar cost and the value of the pick as you say. Under your scenario you are saying two second rounders are better than 1 first rounder.

It's not my scenario. It's the results of research done by two economists, published in a 50-page paper complete with all sorts of mathematical formulas and graphs involving such things as market value, production, compensation, spline regressions, predicted values, expected surplus, etc. This wasn't just counting up the number of Pro Bowl players taken in each round.

[Rack Bauer]

Originally Posted by AdamJT13

The second round is an early round.

Eeeeeasy there, big guy. You don't want to go confusing anyone.




j/k gbrittain.

[TwoDeep3]

But if you miss,

But if you hit


see how that works?

[AdamJT13]

Originally Posted by TwoDeep3

But if you hit

see how that works?

So you have an infallible method of determining which players will hit and which ones will miss -- and you're not employed by an NFL team? That's a travesty. You could make millions, you know.

I'll contact NFL Network for you. I'm sure they'd love to do a story about you during the draft this weekend. Then next year, they can do a follow-up story that shows how right you were and that you possess an amazing talent that nobody in the history of the NFL has ever had.