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'08 White House Rankings - Democrat Candidates

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Mavs Man, Sep 19, 2007.

  1. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    White House 2008 rankings: The Democrats
    A bi-weekly rating of the presidential candidates


    National Journal
    Updated: 9:20 a.m. CT Sept 18, 2007


    WASHINGTON - Our first rankings after a month off, and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is breaking into a trot. One danger for Clinton's challengers -- a side effect of the early, fast primary season -- is that they've already used up their store of arrows and must rely on reinforcing, rather than introducing, arguments against her.

    At this point, some of the candidates will begin to think about caucus-support deals like the arrangement Dennis Kucinich made with John Edwards in 2003. Bill Richardson's Iowa folks are pretty friendly with Edwards this year, and Joseph Biden, if he makes any deal, is almost certain to make it with Clinton.

    Who, we wonder, would agree to be Barack Obama's friend?

    These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Democratic Party primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling.

    DEMOCRATIC RANKINGS

    1 Hillary Clinton
    New York senator Last Ranking: 1
    From the vantage point of process, late August and early September have been tough -- perhaps the roughest period of the campaign. Just when she was creating real daylight, the Hsu scandal raised questions about the core values of her campaign, opponents jumped on her silence in the wake of the Petraeus report, and she did not dominate the final debate in August as she did almost all the others. And yet... never has she been in better shape with the Democratic electorate, having mostly neutralized her Iraq vote, answered the question about whether she is a change agent and improved her standing in Iowa. Still, a public trial of Hsu will last beyond the primaries, and it's not hard to see how a general election opponent would exploit the chance to remind voters of what they didn't like about the Clintons.

    2. Barack Obama
    Illinois senator Last Ranking: 2
    The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 has never been larger. Make no mistake: We're not among those pundits ready to begin writing Obama's obituary, and we're impressed by the field organization he continues to put together in early states. And yes -- we recognize that he's becoming a better candidate. And that Oprah Winfrey's birthday is Jan. 29, the day (for now) of the South Carolina primary. But face facts: After Labor Day, poll trendlines do matter; Obama cannot make the argument any longer that Iowa caucus-goers don't know who he was (as opposed to who he is); he's gotten very little traction from his comparison to Clinton; and his process-oriented campaign seems to be more confusing than anything else to the non-elite Democrats who tend to vote in the primaries. His middle-class tax-cut plan is a solid first step to remedy this problem.

    3. John Edwards
    Former North Carolina senator Last Ranking: 3
    To some, the tactics employed by the Edwards campaign to keep his name in the national media's Obama/Clinton vise are cloying and cute; arguably, they work. Edwards has no other choice, really. In Iowa, he'll do what he's been doing: pressing Clinton and Obama from the populist left on Iraq and health care; nationally, he'll exploit every Trippi trick in the book to stay relevant. Did Edwards tip his hand about his financial problem by only buying airtime on MSNBC instead of both MSNBC and CNN after the president's address?

    4. Bill Richardson
    New Mexico governor Last Ranking: 4
    Democratic voters seem to like Richardson, and one hidden benefit of his "I'm a schlump" act is that he is fast becoming a solid second choice for many. There is plenty of Richardson buzz in Iowa.

    5. Joe Biden
    Delaware senator Last Ranking: 5
    He's gotten some solid legislative endorsements in Iowa and has one of the best messages of the campaign.

    6. Christopher Dodd
    Connecticut senator Last Ranking: 6
    On Iraq, notice that Obama is following Dodd's lead. As one Obama supporter put it wishfully: "If only our guy had Dodd's guts...." If you combined Dodd's campaign doggedness with Biden's credibility on Iraq, that candidate would be a serious contender for the top tier.

    7. Dennis Kucinich
    Ohio congressman Last Ranking: 7
    He has almost no chance of winning the nomination. It's time for the DNC to stop inviting Kucinich and Gravel. They've had their chance; it didn't work. Let's cut the debates to six candidates.

    8. Mike Gravel
    Former Alaska senator Last Ranking: 8
    He is barely more than a punchline at this point, although at least he is not as rude as Ron Paul.

    Copyright 2007 by National Journal Group Inc.
    URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16710815/
  2. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    Might as well end this list after #3... and even that might be too generous.
  3. Aikbach

    Aikbach Active Member

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    Edwards is wasting time and money,potential running mates will be Obama, Biden and Richardson or a dark horse would be real cute and ask Gore back for another Clinton/ Gore run.

    Edwards will never live down his 2004 tarnish and all together smug unlikability with middle America.
  4. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    The question now is do Obama and Edwards back down and attempt to earn a VP slot?

    I do not see Edwards doing so but in many ways he'd be an ideal VP candidate as a Southern white male. Then again Gore fits that bill as well and Gore may be too smart for his own good as President but does make an excellent advisor.

    Obama is the more interesting one to me.

    If he falls back into the VP role the Dem ticket is unbeatable. It will have grass roots and corporate support. It will have experience and unity. BUT I am not convinced Obama is ready to settle for 2nd place. We will see if things get contentious or not.

    I think Obama would be much like Jason Garrett as a star heir apparent who is just not quite ready.
  5. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    I thought Obama ran a few years too early, but Lincoln didn't have much experience either (though, the 1860 election was split between four candidates). Still, it would be wise for him to make a go at at least until a few weeks into the primaries. This time in 2003 Howard Dean was the media darling. Hillary is a much more viable candidate and legitimate frontrunner than Dean was, but just saying - in politics, things can change fast.
  6. Aikbach

    Aikbach Active Member

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    Please don't mention Abe Lincoln and Barak Obama in the same breath, i don't think you intended a comparison beyond political experience prior to running but I shiver when people try to equate the modern crop with greatness.
  7. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    Obama needed to run while his stock was high and his competition (other than Hillary) was weak.

    He's only helped himself by his increased exposure from this run. And people will be clamoring for him to run the next time around.

    Plus, and this is possibly the biggest thing, he's been able to amass a donor list that is at least 250,000 people large. He may have half a million donors by the time this election is over, and that is a staggering number.

    I'm in political fundraising and that figure is absolutely and completely unprecedented. His list will be an enormously powerful asset for him moving forward. If he can keep these donors active and if he can find ways to mobilize them over the next few years, he can be the most powerful figure in politics next to the President (without having to take the abuse the Prez has to take).

    Obama will be a major presence for quite a while.
  8. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    I know, I know.

    Lincoln had also been on the Washington political scene about 10-15 years before he ran for president, having served as an Illinois House Rep. for a term or two (tossed out for voting against the Mexican-American War) and running for a Senate seat in 1858.

    As Reagan would say, "I knew Lincoln. I served with him. He was a friend of mine. And you, senator, are no Abe Lincoln."
  9. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    That is interesting. We'll see how it goes.
  10. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Absolutely.
    The real question is does Obama want to aim at the VP slot which he could of course have and then slide into the Presidency after the normal maturation process....

    I suspect at one time that was the plan, then he saw the support and felt he could make a serious go at it.

    He is obviously the most likable Dem candidate. But a ticket with Hillary would be a perfect balance of experience and charisma. In a lot of ways Obama is Bill Clinton with some morals.
  11. Aikbach

    Aikbach Active Member

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    Obama is way more socialistic in his domestic agenda than Bubba ever was, he may be faithful to his wife but that doesn't earn him any points since you're supposed to be.
  12. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    I agree he is more liberal but he has the same charisma and grass roots backing. Bill was far more liberal when he was Obama's age:)

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