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Alabama and..... Florida State?

Discussion in 'Sports Zone' started by Rogah, Oct 20, 2013.

  1. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Wins over MULTIPLE 3 loss teams and MULTIPLE 4 loss teams will easily overcome a couple victories over quality comp balanced with wins versus bad teams.

    I believe Clemson loses to SCar. I knew Miami wasn't going undefeated before the ACC CG and they didn't even make it a week.

    Right now FSU has 2 wins over AP top 25 teams. 2. That's it. One is ranked 23 and barely in.
    They finish the year versus 5-4 Syracuse, 1-8 Idaho, 4-5 Florida so pick up no more until the ACC CG and that is iffy.
    And a Coastal Champ that will have at last 2 and possibly 3 losses.
    I can't predict whom because there are 4 teams with a shot there and tie-breaks may well decide it.

    Big 12 stuff.
    Right now you have 5 teams with 3 or fewer losses. 4 teams with 2 or fewer.
    And Baylor plays them all. It also beat a Buffalo team with 7 wins and a 1st place slot in its conference.

    No idea who will finish where in the Big 12 either except that the top schools will end up with 3 or fewer losses and they will all be to top 25 teams.Going by rankings you'd expect an OSU team with 2 losses to finish 2nd and be ranked about 10th. OU will have 3 or 4 losses and end the year ranked easily.

    As you play it forward.
    Clemson still has SCar on the road and GTech at home. They win the final 3 and they'll be top 10 but that is very iffy to say the least.But this is the one legit victory for FSU.
    Miami has Duke and Pitt on the road to go with a laugher over a down Virginia team.
    Then whatever team does escape the Coastal presumably takes another beat down versus FSU.

    All which adds up for SOS.

    The media at large will start talking about how Baylor can leap frog FSU soon, they are just slow and bad at math.
  2. Rogah

    Rogah Well-Known Member

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    As unfair as this is, there is absolutely zero chance whatsoever Baylor leapfrogs FSU in the BCS without the Coaches or Harris Poll votes, and they simply aren't going to get those votes without FSU losing. The overwhelming national consensus is that FSU and Alabama deserve to be in the title game, unfortunately.
  3. BoysFan4ever

    BoysFan4ever Well-Known Member

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    Roll Tide!
    dart likes this.
  4. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Completely disagree.

    The polls do not have to favor Baylor over FSU.
    The computers WILL if both win out.
    And humans WILL almost certainly favor Bama over FSU with a strong majority.

    Right now FSU is splitting many top spots in computer and human polls.
    That won't last in any real world scenarios.

    Bama moves up to take solid control of all 1st place nods if it keeps winning.
    Baylor squeezes FSU if it keeps winning and against "football" schools.
    Then once FSU and Baylor are tighter in ALL the polls the SOS component will push Baylor to second.

    Right now it looks like FSU has a sizable lead and easy advantage but again people are not looking at the games ahead and playing it all out.


    Baylor could of course lose.
    As could Bama but neither seem likely. --Bama has gotten better and better and Baylor has shown it has absurd depth and the best offense in college football.
    FSU is going to go into every game a 20 point favorite the rest of the way and few will even watch those games.
    That's what ailed Baylor in the BCS standings for the past month.
    Out of sight out of mind. Even when you score 70 and win by 50.
  5. dart

    dart Benched

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    YES INDEED
    BoysFan4ever likes this.
  6. Rogah

    Rogah Well-Known Member

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    Humans already favor Bama over FSU with a strong majority. 156 out of 167 voters in the polls used by the BCS favor Alabama. All 11 FSU voters could switch to Alabama and it would only impact the BCS by less than a thousandth of a point.

    Baylor will probably over take Ohio State as things play out (assuming everyone keeps on winning). There is no way they overtake Florida State, period, end of discussion. They will close the gap, but the idea that they overtake FSU is just mathematically impossible.

    If Alabama or FSU loses, then it gets very interesting. But right now there is no doubt it will be Alabama and Florida State if everyone keeps winning (and if Jameis Winston stays out of jail).
  7. Rogah

    Rogah Well-Known Member

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    So.... Alabama versus Baylor, anyone?
  8. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Rogah: What you are saying is consistent with what many pundits claim.
    However they are not using math based in psychological reality. --i.e. what people actually do.
    Again Baylor is going to be on TV playing name opponents in games people want badly to see.
    FSU is not. That will change voting patterns.

    As to the human polls...
    It is merely the overall points that matter.
    Bama unless they lose will be considered god almighty by pollsters.
    But the points differential will increase SIGNIFICANTLY over 2nd place.
    And the margin between 2nd and 3rd place will shrink DRASTICALLY.
    Right now Baylor hasn't even consistently gotten 3rd place votes.
    Many had them at 6 or 7 just a couple weeks ago.
    With wins they will rise every week.

    In the current computer polls FSU gets an even nod with BAMA. They get 1st place points.
    That will change dramatically if everyone at the top wins out.
    Because the SOS component wildly favors Baylor to close the season.

    So again I think you will see it is almost impossible for Baylor to win out and NOT play in a NCG though you will continue to read differently until the conference championship games. By which time it will be figured out.
  9. Rogah

    Rogah Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, but this shows you just don't understand how the system works. One of the polls is the coaches poll and on Saturday's, coaches are coaching. They're not sitting glued to the TV sets like you and me. They have no clue who is on and they don't care. They're too busy taking care of their own business.

    It is ridiculously rare in the polls that a team leapfrogs over a team in the top 2 this late in the season if both teams win. In fact, I can't think of a single example of such a thing ever even happening. Furthermore, you seem not to realize that an awful lot of the human pollsters don't even consider Baylor to be #3. They have to leapfrog 2 teams in order to get into the top 2.
    That is one of your many incorrect statements. Alabama already has 146 out of 157 first place votes in the human polls. The differential will not increase SIGNIFICANTLY because it is already almost as big as it can possibly be.
    If everyone wins out and Winston manages not to get charged with any felonies, then it is Alabama v. FSU, period, end of story. You remind me of the people 2 years ago saying the exact same thing about Okie State. The computers put OSU over 'Bama but they couldn't leapfrog 'Bama in the polls so the computers weren't good enough.

    HOWEVER, as I mentioned before, I gladly admit that Winston being suspended - which is certainly in the realm of possibility - will throw the entire system into complete chaos. Even if FSU wins out, a Winston suspension could create an unprecedented "leapfrog a top-2 team" situation. So there is certainly still hope for Baylor.
  10. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Generally Coaches aren't voting. Half the time it is the schools SID actually voting or an asst coach.
    But even when it is Coaches they are VERY aware of what top 20 teams play each other and who wins.

    Actually the two teams ranked in the top 2 of the BCS at this point (last week actually) in the season have NEVER met.

    Now does this mean leap frogs occur regularly? Not necessarily but also not nearly proven that leap frogs wouldn't happen.

    You are clearly an FSU fan so are probably a little biased here.
    I am generally not a fan of either team.
    I have seen both play and both are really friggin good.
    I wouldn't want my team playing either.

    But if I look at the schedules, the likely outcomes and the effect of playing those games I see a fairly certain pattern.
    Baylor rises weekly.
    FSU stagnates mightily and with questions about it's QB now might start dropping even if they win by 50.
    Bama is considered a huge favorite over anyone so owns the computer polls ALONE.
    With Baylor a VERY solid 2nd.
    ESPN, Fox Sports et al with talk about big games a ton. If Baylor beats OSU handily on the road that will be arguably the most discussed game of the week.
    That effects votes period.
    That's undeniable.

    FSU will be in 3rd(with Clemson winning out) or 4th(Clemson loses to SCar) in computer polls IMHO, 2nd(at best) in human polls and math is tough for them at that point.

    You are correct the Winston stuff may make this moot.
    Happily the playoffs make it truly moot going forward.

    Will be interesting to watch and see what happens.
  11. joseephuss

    joseephuss Well-Known Member

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    If Winston gets charged, then all bets are off.

    Baylor is going to play in one game people want to see. Not badly see. Just see. That is against Oklahoma St. Baylor's games against TCU and Texas aren't big deals because both of those teams aren't that good. FSU's match up at Florida will garner more interest and that isn't saying much because the Gators are bad as well. FSU will have the ACC championship game. Sure it won't feature a big name opponent, but since it is a championship game it will draw more attention than Baylor's game against Texas on that same day.

    The human polls aren't going to lift Baylor over FSU. The computer polls will still be close. Right now FSU has the advantage in SOS. That really won't change too drastically if both teams win out. It will change depending on what happens to some of their opponents. Clemson needs to win out to help FSU. OU can't slip up against KSU and then turn around and beat OSU. That would really hurt Baylor. Even if Clemson loses they will still end up ranked higher than any team Baylor has faced this season. The probability of Baylor jumping FSU is very slim.
  12. Rogah

    Rogah Well-Known Member

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    You're absolutely right, but that doesn't change the point. The coaches and athletic directors (and all the assistants) are primarily focused on their own team on gameday. They're not glued to the set anxiously awaiting Baylor-OSU like all the rest of us are.
    I'm am 99% sure it's never happened. We were Okie State would do it to Alabama 2 years ago, and we were all let down.
    Sorry, Charlie, wrong again. I'm rooting for Baylor. I want them in the national championship. I just recognize it is a mathematical impossibility if everyone keeps on winning (and Winston doesn't get suspended_.

    Baylor has been rising weekly because every week, some teams ahead of them lost. They started #8. They jumped Miami and Mizzou when those teams lost to #6. They stayed there a week then jumped to #5 when Oregon lost and now #4 when Stanford lost.

    They haven't leap frogged over any other team that kept on winning. I believe they are so close to Ohio State that after this weekend, they will indeed leapfrog Ohio State. But that ain't gonna get them into the top-2.
    This is arguably Baylor's best hope. It is going to take more than just "questions" about Winston. If he actually gets suspended, FSU could certainly fall in the votes.
    Sorry, just not gonna happen assuming everyone wins out and Winston doesn't get suspended. Still a lot of football to be played, not to mention legal maneuverings coming soon, so Baylor definitely has some hope. They just don't control their own destiny.
  13. Rogah

    Rogah Well-Known Member

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    This, to me, is the most fascinating possibility. I could easily see FSU - no matter who is quarterback - beating Idaho, Florida then the ACC Championship (right now Duke). But if Winston was suspended, would the voters maybe knock FSU down in the polls with the reasoning that "even though they won, fact is that without Winston, they're #10, not #2"
  14. Rogah

    Rogah Well-Known Member

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    Well, I guess we won't be finding out what would have happened if Baylor, OSU and FSU won out. Baylor decided to send the b-squad to Stillwater.
  15. Future

    Future Intramural Legend

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    That game was over when that QB stumbled over his own 2 feet and then they fumbled on the next play.

    I don't watch a lot of Big 12 games, but I was surprised by how physical OK State was. That FB (#9) is a monster, and their safeties deliver some blows.
  16. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Only question left now is does Winston get charged or not and can Bama win out.

    As always the vast majority of teams find a way to lose a game.
  17. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    You are wrong here about the Texas/Baylor and FSU/UF games.
    Texas v Baylor is the bigger draw easily. And it's really not close.

    Florida is a 4 win team and their own fan base isn't even watching.

    It is an FSU party provided Winston is there to play it. If not it becomes a game both sides try to ignore even exists.

    Baylor/UT is for a major bowl spot and possibly 2nd place in the conference.
  18. joseephuss

    joseephuss Well-Known Member

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    FSU, Florida and Texas are nationally known programs. Baylor is Baylor. Briles has that program at a high level right now, but you can't fight history.
  19. ABQCOWBOY

    ABQCOWBOY Moderator Staff Member

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    I agree with this Josee. Florida will be back and they will be back with a high powered coach. Once that happens, they will be back in the thick of it.
  20. JoeyBoy718

    JoeyBoy718 Well-Known Member

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    So as it stands, Bama, FSU and OSU are undefeated and #'s 1, 2 and 3. Bama plays Auburn Saturday, and the winner of that game plays in the SEC championship against likely Missouri or South Carolina. Would Auburn play in the national championship if they beat Bama, won the SEC and one of FSU or OSU lost? That would be interesting to see. What about if they same thing happened but it was Missouri winning the SEC with only one loss? I doubt they'd be in the national championship though. And what if Bama, FSU and OSU all win out? Will an OSU win over Michigan State allow them to jump past FSU?

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