1. Like to discuss POLITICS? Come join us at PUNNDITS.com!
    If you like discussing politics and other related topics then your new home (hopefully) for doing just that can be found on Punndits.com! Come join us and help us grow Punndits into a wonderful and safe place to discuss politics with everyone.
    Dismiss Notice

And with the 8th pick in the 2011 NFL draft, the Dallas Cowboys pick...

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by fanfromvirginia, Nov 26, 2010.

  1. fanfromvirginia

    fanfromvirginia Inconceivable!

    4,014 Messages
    164 Likes Received
    Man, I've got some time on my hands...

    I decided to try to systematically determine where the Cowboys might expect to draft using common sense, a little research, and (what I know of) the laws of probability. My goal was to find the one slot I would choose if my life depended on it.

    So first I narrowed it down -- we're obviously going to finish with somewhere between 3 and 8 wins. So I went back and researched where every team that finished with between 3 and 8 wins drafted over the last 10 seasons. Here's what I found:
    • Teams that finished with 3 wins drafted on average at the 2.5 spot. The range was very narrow -- 2-4.
    • Teams that finished with 4 wins drafted on average in the 4th spot but the range was 1-7.
    • Teams that finished with 5 wins drafted on average in the 7th spot and the range was 5-10.
    • Teams that finished with 6 wins drafted on average in the 10th spot. The range was 7-14.
    • Teams that finished with 7 wins drafted at about the 12.5 spot. That range was 9-17.
    • Teams that finished at 8-8 drafted on average at the 16th spot. The range was 12-20.
    So that got me a little closer but the overall range was 1-20 and the averages differed pretty significantly, as anyone would expect. So I had to narrow it down a bit more to get my guess.

    Of course, I don't know how many wins the Cowboys will finish with. None of us do. And opinions on this vary widely so I decided to go with basic laws of probability rather than guessing based on what we (think we) know about this team.

    Even though there are very plausible scenarios for us to either go winless or win out in the final 5 games (new coach and a team playing better and fired up v. tough schedule, injuries, less to play for than opponents on average), the odds of either happening are actually pretty low, everything else equal (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = about 1.5%). So I eliminated those. I went ahead and eliminated the 1-4 and 4-1 scenarios as well for similar reasons (everything else equal, more teams should go 2-3 or 3-2 than 1-4 or 4-1) and just went with a 5 or 6 win season and split the difference, which came out to be about 8.45. So I rounded down and chose 8.

    There you have it -- one man's reasonable attempt to guesstimate where we're going to be picking in the draft. (Of course, this is just a guess. If I had to put a range on it, I'd say we're picking between 6 and 10.)

    So...with the 8th pick in the 2011 NFL draft, the Cowboys pick...who?
     
  2. RS12

    RS12 Well-Known Member

    19,534 Messages
    6,064 Likes Received
    Nick Fairley.
     
  3. mv09

    mv09 Member

    170 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    I would throw my remote at the TV. A punk kid who doesn't play offensive tackle/guard. First pick has to be an OT/G, imo.
     
  4. RS12

    RS12 Well-Known Member

    19,534 Messages
    6,064 Likes Received
    Ya, Dallas has no use for a playmaker on the D Line, seeing as how the defense is so stought.:rolleyes: :laugh1:
     
  5. SDogo

    SDogo Not as good as I once was but as good once as I ev

    13,899 Messages
    5 Likes Received
    If it aint a DB or OL trade back although I will say I'm one of the select few who are intrigued by Mallett, Ingram and even more so Heyward.
     
  6. Picksix

    Picksix A Work in Progress

    5,182 Messages
    1,053 Likes Received
    Unfortunately, if we pick that high, there might not be an OL worth the slot. Possibly Sherrod, the OL out of Miss St (?). All the other OL right now are rated somewhere between mid 1st and 2nd round. Of course, a lot will change between now and April, but if a guy like Patrick Peterson is still there, tough not to take him, and get value with OL in the 2nd.
     
  7. Eskimo

    Eskimo Well-Known Member

    12,821 Messages
    496 Likes Received
    I think we need to try and pick an impact player who has a good shot at being a perennial Pro Bowler.

    I really could see us drafting DE, OLB, OT or CB at this slot and would be happy with any of the picks if the player filled the above criteria. I don't want a QB, WR, RB, TE, OG/C or S at those spots because of a lack of need and/or lack of an impact player in the draft at those positions.

    I wouldn't mind a player like Amukumara or Fairley. If there is noone worthy of the pick, I wouldn't mind trading down a bit and picking up an extra 2nd or 3rd rounder.
     
  8. mv09

    mv09 Member

    170 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    The offensive line, as it stands, would get exposed by numerous playoff team's pass rush. Just look at the Vikings came last year.

    The offensive line is the worst group on the team, one of the worst in the league, and is not Superbowl caliber. Not to mention that they are older, more injury prone, and lack depth.

    A younger line combined with late additions on defense and I believe we are an immediate superbowl contender again - assuming we get a capable head coach in 2011.
     
  9. UnoDallas

    UnoDallas Benched

    5,913 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    Prince Amukamara

    or trade downpick up some other picks

    Brandon Harris*, CB, Miami
    Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State

    Janoris Jenkins, CB, Florida


     
  10. fanfromvirginia

    fanfromvirginia Inconceivable!

    4,014 Messages
    164 Likes Received
    Something I just noticed: each extra win seems to drop you about 3 spots on average in the draft order.
     
  11. fanfromvirginia

    fanfromvirginia Inconceivable!

    4,014 Messages
    164 Likes Received
    Last point: on the off chance that anybody gives a crap, I messed the math up on the odds of going 0-5 or 5-0. It's roughly 3% each.
     
  12. burmafrd

    burmafrd Benched

    43,820 Messages
    3,379 Likes Received
    I think we get at least 5 wins. Probably 6. I think we will beat the Skins and Eagles once; and win one other.
     
  13. SDogo

    SDogo Not as good as I once was but as good once as I ev

    13,899 Messages
    5 Likes Received
    I see 4 wins at the most but either way I think even 5 gets us in the top 10 this year.
     
  14. fanfromvirginia

    fanfromvirginia Inconceivable!

    4,014 Messages
    164 Likes Received
    Over the last ten seasons, there were 30 teams that finished with 5 wins and every one of them picked in the top 10. In fact, 60% of the teams that finished with 6 wins picked in the top 10.
     
  15. SDogo

    SDogo Not as good as I once was but as good once as I ev

    13,899 Messages
    5 Likes Received
    now I feel even better;)
     
  16. realtick

    realtick Benched

    6,986 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    Nobody is saying offensive line is not a major need. However, for those who follow college football and the draft, they realize there are likely no offensive linemen (OG, OT, or C) worthy of taking at where the Cowboys will likely be drafting (No. 4-10 IMO).

    The value and talent in this year's crop is in the secondary and defensive line (which are needs too). You don't say "hey we need o-linemen" and then arbitrarily reach for a player because it suits a need.

    What offensive lineman do you want the Cowboys to draft?
     
  17. realtick

    realtick Benched

    6,986 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    That's good info.

    Don't tell Hostile, he thinks 5 or 6 wins will get you to 12-15.
     
  18. dbair1967

    dbair1967 Arch Defender

    30,783 Messages
    1 Likes Received
    I think we'll win more than 1 game the rest of the yr.

    In fact barring more injuries, I think we win 3 of 5, and maybe 4 of 5.

    We're gonna roll Washington and Arizona. I think we will be Indy too.

    That leaves Philly twice.
     
  19. TheCount

    TheCount Pixel Pusher

    22,522 Messages
    2,691 Likes Received
    Ugh, finishing 8-8, out of the playoffs and with the 16th pick would be pretty terrible. Talk about no win situation.

    Good thread btw. Personally, I don't think there's an offensive lineman worth of a Top 10 pick right now either.
     

Share This Page