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Blog: The Recession is Ending - Welcome to the Economic Expansion of 2009

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by theogt, Aug 20, 2009.

  1. Kangaroo

    Kangaroo Active Member

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    The chart shows what it does but I am skeptical

    Back-to-school looks weak for apparel retailers

    http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2027186920090820

    U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly rise
    http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE57J2XC20090820

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week, a government report showed on Thursday, fanning worries of an anemic recovery from the worst recession in 70 years.

    Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits rose 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 576,000 in the week ended August 15 from 561,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast new claims slipping to 550,000 last week from a previously reported 558,000.

    "I think that we're hoping for the numbers to stay below 600,000, and not until we get below 500,000 can we be more certain that there is an economic recovery," said Linda Duessel, market strategist at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh.

    Futures for the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq turned negative after weak jobless data, while U.S. government debt prices erased losses.

    While economic data continue to point to a pending upturn from the recession that started in December 2007, doubts over the sustainability of the recovery are causing companies to be cautious.

    Though the pace of layoffs has slowed markedly from early this year, unemployment remains high and continues to inflict big dents in household incomes. There are fears that consumer spending will be too tepid to drive the recovery.

    The number of people collecting long-term unemployment benefits edged up 2,000 to 6.24 million in the week ended August 8, the latest week for which the data is available. However, the four-week moving average declined 2,500 to 6.27 million.

    The insured unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of the insured labor force who are jobless, was unchanged at 4.7 percent.

    The four-week moving average for new claims climbed 4,250 to 570,000 last week. The four-week moving average is considered a better gauge of underlying trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility.
  2. ShiningStar

    ShiningStar Well-Known Member

    6,496 Messages
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    When you wish upon a STAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRR
  3. WarC

    WarC Active Member

    1,521 Messages
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    I can crash and burn in either one.

    It's a man behind the wheel either way!
  4. CowboyWay

    CowboyWay If Coach would have put me in, we'd a won State

    4,171 Messages
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    Please re read my original post and tell me how many questionmarks I used. I made no such claim. Because nobody can answer the question.
  5. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

    9,457 Messages
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    That's the beauty of economic "solutions". Each side can claim that what they did was the reason things got better or that it would have gotten better regardless.
  6. JBond

    JBond Well-Known Member

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    Now if only those 8 million folks could find a job. Oh well. A jobless recovery it is. Whatever that means. I am pretty sure all the unemployed are joyous when they see your chart.
  7. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    Employment is typically a very lagging indicator. A recession will end before employment begins to really pick back up.
  8. JBond

    JBond Well-Known Member

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    I have read the text book also. Thanks. I rely on you for clarification on some things, but the recession on a personal level is far from over for many millions of people. Home foreclosure is skyrocketing and will continue to get worse for quite some time. The market is correcting but another bubble will be built through government interference and more people will lose everything. You can not micro manage the US economy. Unintended consequences are a *****.
  9. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    Existing home sales surged 7.2% (month over month) and 5.0% (year over year) in July.

    The housing rebound has begun.

    I'd rather not hash though this discussion, but bubbles tend to happen due to a lack of government interference not because of government interference.
  10. Rackat

    Rackat Active Member

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    OK, so if the recession is ending, I expect the Democrats to reverse themselves on the Stimulus. Instead of getting us into more debt when the economy is improving, let's not spend that money. Anyone want to bet that doesn't happen?
  11. ABQCOWBOY

    ABQCOWBOY Moderator Staff Member

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    In that case, if your possing the question, my answere would be no. I base this answer on the information I've already posted in this thread.

    That better?
  12. JBond

    JBond Well-Known Member

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    Home foreclosures set another record in July

    http://www.reuters.com/article/gc03/idUSTRE57C0M620090814

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. home loans failed at a record pace in July despite ongoing federal and state programs to avoid foreclosures, which have severely strained housing and the economy.

    Foreclosure activity jumped 7 percent in July from June and 32 percent from a year earlier as one in every 355 households with a loan got a foreclosure filing, RealtyTrac said on Thursday.

    Filings -- including notices of default, auction and bank repossession -- have escalated with unemployment.

    "July marks the third time in the last five months where we've seen a new record set for foreclosure activity," James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac's chief executive, said in a statement.

    "Despite continued efforts by the federal government and state governments to patch together a safety net for distressed homeowners, we're seeing significant growth in both the initial notices of default and in the bank repossessions."

    More than 360,000 households with loans drew a foreclosure filing in July, a record dating back to January 2005, when RealtyTrac started tracking monthly activity.

    Notices of default, auction or repossession have reached nearly 2.3 million in the first seven months of the year -- with more than half a million bank repossessions, the Irvine, California-based company said.

    Making timely payments keeps getting harder for borrowers who have lost their jobs or seen their wages cut.

    The unemployment rate is 9.4 percent and President Barack Obama has said he expects it will hit 10 percent.

    Obama's housing rescue is gaining traction in altering terms of loans for struggling borrowers, but slowly.

    Earlier this month the U.S. Treasury Department detailed the progress of the top servicers in modifying loans and prodded them to step up efforts to stem foreclosures.

    SUN BELT STILL SUFFERING

    States where sales and prices surged most in the five-year housing boom early this decade remain hardest hit.

    California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada accounted for almost 57 percent of total U.S. foreclosure activity in July.

    Illinois had the fifth-highest total filings, spiking nearly 35 percent from June, in an example of how moratoriums often delay rather than cure an inevitable loan failure.

    Default notices spiked by 86 percent in July, from artificially low levels the prior two months. A state law enacted on April 5 gave delinquent borrowers up to 90 extra days before foreclosure started, RealtyTrac said.

    Michigan's foreclosure activity fell 39 percent in July from June, mostly due to a 66 percent drop in scheduled auctions. A state law that took effect July 6 freezes foreclosure proceedings an extra 90 days for homeowners who commit to work on a loan modification plan.

    Other states with the highest foreclosure filing totals last month included Texas, Georgia, Ohio and New Jersey.

    Nevada had the highest state foreclosure rate for the 31st straight month, with one in every 56 properties getting a filing, or more than six times the national average.

    Initial notices of default fell 18 percent in the month, with a new Nevada law taking effect on July 1 requiring lenders to offer mediation to homeowners facing foreclosure. Scheduled auctions and bank repossessions each jumped more than 20 percent, however, boosting overall foreclosure activity in the state by 4 percent from June.

    California, Arizona, Florida, Utah, Idaho, Georgia, Illinois, Colorado and Oregon were the other states with the highest foreclosure rates.

    (Editing by Kenneth Barry)
  13. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    Foreclosures continuing to rise isn't evidence that the housing rebound is not occurring. The moratoriums on foreclosures pushed many that would have happened months ago back.

    The bigger story is the surprising lack of "shadow inventory" hitting the market.
  14. CowboyWay

    CowboyWay If Coach would have put me in, we'd a won State

    4,171 Messages
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    Yes, thank you. I'll put you down in the "In my opinion no, but I have absolutely no way of proving it one way or the other" bunch.
  15. ABQCOWBOY

    ABQCOWBOY Moderator Staff Member

    35,677 Messages
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    You may put me down in any list you wish. Let me know when you find anybody interested enough in your opinion to pay attention.
  16. Bob Sacamano

    Bob Sacamano Benched

    57,073 Messages
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  17. MetalHead

    MetalHead Benched

    6,031 Messages
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    Better watch it ABQ.
    We lost Rat,and now you are discouraging CowboyWay from posting.
    Silverbear is just hit and run,and so is Suspect...we are running out of lefty loons to make fun of.
    Better be nice...just sayin'...:p:
  18. CowboyWay

    CowboyWay If Coach would have put me in, we'd a won State

    4,171 Messages
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    As soon as you stop responding to my posts, I'll let you know when I run out of people interested in my opinion. :D
  19. ABQCOWBOY

    ABQCOWBOY Moderator Staff Member

    35,677 Messages
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    Hey Bob,

    How are you buddy?

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