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BPA might be overrated

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by xwalker, Feb 3, 2013.

  1. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    Best Player Available might be overrated.

    The contributions of a draft pick during their 1st contract is critical. In order to make the salary cap work effectively, teams need significant contributions from players that are on their 1st contracts.

    On the flip-side, after a players initial contract is up (normally 4 years), good players are going to be a big hit against the salary cap regardless of whether they sign with the team that drafted them or as an unrestricted Free Agent from another team. The teams salary cap benefit from drafting that player on his 2nd contract is either zero or minimal.

    There are benefits for a team with regards to 2nd contract players that the team drafted in terms of having the opportunity to sign players that might never be available in Free Agency if another team had drafted them; however, the benefit specifically to the salary cap is still zero or minimal. If Mike Jenkins had been a great draft pick, he would still have cost the Cowboys as much as Brandon Carr. The fact that they drafted him would not really benefit the salary cap.

    If a player has zero or minimal contributions to the team in year 1, then regardless of how well that player develops in the following years, the team has lost ¼ of the value of that player (i.e. 1 year of the 4 year contract is wasted).

    There are exceptions if you draft injured players that would otherwise have been drafted significantly earlier. The value of the 18th pick in the 1st round is more than double the value of the 18th pick in the 2nd round. If you consider the value of each year of the #18 pick as 1 unit, then the team gets 4 units of (1-18) value on the 4-year contract.

    If the value of 1-18 is 2x the value of 2-18, then getting a player that would have been drafted at 1-18 at 2-18 due to injury, is like getting 8 (2-18) units of value for drafting the injured player. Since the player will be out the 1st year, the value is reduced from 8 units to 7 units. The team is still ahead of the game by 3 units compared to drafting a player that was healthy but rated at a 2-18 talent.

    The area where you have an issue, is drafting players that won’t have significant contributions due to the players ahead of them on the roster. If the Cowboys draft a QB that is a backup for 3 years and then starts in his 4th year, then they have lost ¾ of the unit value of that player. They get contribution from that player for 1 year before he requires a 2nd contract.
  2. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    The 2nd issue is how to define BPA.

    How do you account for position value in the definition of BPA?

    Chance Warmack might be a better player at OG than Luke Joeckel is at OT. Would anybody consider Warmack the BPA over Joeckel?

    When people say BPA, I think they’re really saying don’t force the pick at a position of need.

    If the Cowboys draft Warmack or Cooper at #18 over a WR that is rated higher, I don’t see that as a problem.

    The problem would occur if the Cowboys go into the 1st round determined to get and OG. If Warmack/Cooper are gone and the Cowboys take the next availabe OG, then they are “reaching” or not following any type of BPA strategy.
  3. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

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    Matt Millen boasted he went with BPA. Just how well did that work?

    BPA is a totally over used and frankly USELESS word.

    How do you truly rate a QB vs a LT vs a CB for who is the BPA of all of them?

    You cannot.

    What teams do is have from what I have heard mostly have 3 tiers of players for each round. each one third or so of that round.

    And have several players in each tier. And will pick one of them when their time comes. And the smart ones pick a player for a position of need.

    Now and then that might not be true and the team will trade down. Or accept a player at a position of strength because he is just too good to pass up. But few teams are so loaded they can afford to do that.
  4. Idgit

    Idgit Ice up, son. Ice up! Staff Member

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    So...draft for immediate need and/or draft positions where teams aren't going to allow the player to hit FA that you can't otherwise get anyplace else (ie, QB and pass rushers).

    Given how valuable that roster spot is, then, for developing players who desperately need the physical development and the position coaching, I'm surprised we don't see more contracts where the player gets a year or two inexpensively and the club has an option for an additional few years at a fixed salary that splits the difference between the rookie deal and veteran FA market rate. It seems like there should be an accommodation that lets young players develop and lets the team benefit from giving them the time to do so if they're not ready to come in and hit the ground running.

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