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BTB: Two Soph. on the Dallas Cowboys

Discussion in 'News Zone' started by waving monkey, Jun 10, 2014.

  1. waving monkey

    waving monkey Well-Known Member

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  2. SilverStarCowboy

    SilverStarCowboy The Actualist

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    Shariff Floyd is a Viking, far from a Rush-Men.
    waving monkey likes this.
  3. jrumann59

    jrumann59 Well-Known Member

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    But much closer to Rushmore. :)
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  4. jobberone

    jobberone Right turn Clyde Staff Member

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    I don't believe it is pure luck at all.

    Here is a pretty good read on the draft: ftp://ftp.cs.wpi.edu/pub/techreports/pdf/13-01.pdf

    It's not the be all end all but its pretty good work.

    Here is a graph of the teams with the Approx Value of a pick vs the Round Pick. You'll have to read the article (long and academic) to understand how they arrived at those labels and decide for yourself what it means.

    [IMG]


    [IMG]

    This data is from 2000 on for all teams. We don't do as well as GB, SF, or NE which I'm sure is new and big news for all. :( We do ok with value. Pitt gets the best bang for the buck and GB gets the most bang. Not too surprising to find us smack dab in the middle, huh?

    The more players you pick and the higher you pick the more likely you are to hit on them. Another huge surprise. But they show it with the numbers not just anecdotally.

    What was interesting was what I've been saying for a year or three and that's S and interior line are safer picks and CBs are not so safe. There's a point there somewhere.
    CyberB0b likes this.
  5. AsthmaField

    AsthmaField Outta bounds

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    In the article, Tom Ryle says: "This supports the whole argument that trading up to select DeMarcus Lawrence was a mistake, no matter how highly the Cowboys had him graded or how badly they felt they needed an edge rusher. To get him, they gave up a third-round pick - which means they passed up an opportunity to grab another Terrance Williams."

    While it is technically true that they passed up on the opportunity to draft another Williams, you could also say that by trading the 7th to move up and draft Devin Street this year, you passed on a chance to grab another Jay Ratliff or Patrick Crayton. Or that by trading away a 6th round pick, a team gave up a chance to draft another Tom Brady.

    I understand what the guy is saying, but that isn't a good way to put it. You could even say that by trading the 3rd away they were able to avoid taking another Robert Brewster, Jason Williams, or James Martin... all guys that Dallas swung on in the 3rd round, and cleanly missed.

    Quality does matter, or everyone would be trading back and nobody would trade up.
  6. jobberone

    jobberone Right turn Clyde Staff Member

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    If it works out you look golden; if not very greyish or some nasty color. Look at the trade for Tony Dorsett. Now about the Claiborne trade............
  7. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Well-Known Member

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    None of this is as simple as the charts imply, well, other than the Redskins are at the bottom.

    Your 2nd round pick should be a starter for your team at some point and if you miss on those picks (hello Tony Dixon), then you'll have talent holes that will make you have a game day weakness or pay for your talent on the Free Agent market. Your 3rd round picks are the guys that typically you hope might start for you (especially at lower ranked positions.) or at the least, be rotational players for you.

    If you are trading your 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounders, you are leaving your self future talent holes in your roster that you will be forced to deal with in the future. Thats the genius of the Pats trading back a year all the time, they can chose to bank potential talent. 4th-7th rounders are the depth guys.

    While Lawrence might be a good value at round 2, he also cost another core position too.
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  8. Angus12

    Angus12 Active Member

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    Just curious as to how everyone would be trading back if nobody would trade up? ;)
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  9. AsthmaField

    AsthmaField Outta bounds

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    That's the point... it wouldn't happen.
  10. Idgit

    Idgit Ice up, son. Ice up! Staff Member

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    Yeah. It doesn't mean that you can't get outstanding value by trading up. It does mean that you have to significantly outperform the market's assessment on that player if you're going load up that much risk in taking him. More often than not, that does not pay off. Let's hope it does in Lawrence's case, and then let's hope the team goes back to playing the averages.
    waving monkey likes this.
  11. jobberone

    jobberone Right turn Clyde Staff Member

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    I agree with @Wolfpack. You have to make your day one and two picks work for you. That doesn't mean you don't work on the rest of the draft and all your player acquisition.
    RonSpringsdaman20 likes this.
  12. waving monkey

    waving monkey Well-Known Member

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    Idgit I think you really nailed it. We'll have to wait of course. Lawrence is a vital piece in their system if he pans out.
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