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Can They Catch Up? Of Course.

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by irvin88, Oct 4, 2008.

  1. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

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    Can They Catch Up? Of course.

    The odds are against John McCain and Sarah Palin winning this election. It's not easy to make up a 6-point deficit in the last four weeks. But it can be done.

    Look at history. The Gore-Lieberman ticket gained about 6 points in the final two weeks of the 2000 campaign. Ford-Dole came back more than 20 points in less than two months in the fall of 1976. Both tickets were from the party holding the White House, and both were running against inexperienced, and arguably risky, opponents.

    What's more, this year's race has already--twice--moved by more than 6 points over a span of only a few weeks. The race went from McCain up 2 (these are the Real Clear Politics averages) on September 14 to Obama plus 6 on October 2, less than three weeks later. In the four weeks before that, the race had moved from Obama plus 5 on August 12 to McCain plus 2 on September 12.

    So while there's reason for McCain-Palin supporters to worry, there's no reason to despair.

    Despair is what the Obama campaign is hoping and working for. If a campaign can convince supporters of the other candidate that the race is effectively over, the enthusiasm and volunteer efforts drop off--as does, ultimately, their turnout on Election Day. Just as important, undecided and loosely affiliated voters become persuaded there's no real contest and lose any incentive to look closely at the candidates. This explains the efforts of the Obama campaign--aided by a colluding media--to sell the notion that
    the race is over, that McCain supporters should give up, and undecided voters should tune out.

    That's why the events at the end of last week were so important.

    On Thursday night, Sarah Palin more than held her own in the vice-presidential debate against Joe Biden. She may well have stopped the McCain campaign's slide and, with her assaults on Obama's tax-and-spend liberalism and his willingness to lose in Iraq, set up McCain for a strong performance in Tuesday night's debate.

    On Friday, enough House Republicans came around to pass the $700 billion financial bailout. It's no magic bullet, either in terms of the economy or the McCain campaign. But it gives both a chance.

    McCain's decline in the second half of September is easily explained. A huge financial crisis coming to a head less than two months before Election Day is going to hurt the candidate of the incumbent party. The situation was made worse by the perception that not only was a Republican administration presiding over a financial meltdown, but congressmen from the same party were obstructing efforts to deal with it.

    McCain's decision to come back to Washington to try to work out a deal was therefore sensible. While the Bush administration and the congressional Republicans were squabbling and Rome burned, McCain had no chance. Now there is a deal, and the political bleeding may have been staunched. McCain can go on the offensive for the final weeks.

    But what kind of offensive?

    The positive component is pretty straightforward: McCain and Palin are common sense conservatives and proven reformers. The record of reform can be emphasized and contrasted with Obama's and Biden's record of conventional, go-along, get-along liberalism. And implicitly: If McCain and Palin are reformers and outsiders, it's not Bush's third term. More important is the negative message. The McCain campaign has to convince 51 percent of the voters they can't trust Barack Obama to be our next president. This has an ideological component and a character component.
  2. Big Dakota

    Big Dakota New Member

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    And DeAngelo Hall is a great CB :laugh2:


    [IMG]
  3. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    Sure they can, but something big and game-changing is going to have to happen to bring it about. It's not likely at this point, but anything's possible.
  4. REDVOLUTION

    REDVOLUTION Return to Dominance

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  5. jimnabby

    jimnabby Well-Known Member

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  6. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

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    I can't emphasize enough the greatness that is that site. I sound like a commercial, but he was extremely accurate during the primaries. He uses a really cool formula that he plugs the various polls into and comes out with a projection for November 4th.
  7. CanadianCowboysFan

    CanadianCowboysFan Lightning Rod

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    Irvin, are you trying to convince us or yourself?
  8. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    Something big is going to happen. It's called election day. Obama needs to be up by over 8 points on that morning or he will lose. The gap is getting smaller (If you believe there is a gap). The point is that Obama fell well short on election day deciders. His core doesn't get out to vote. and if there is any bad weather in any of the close states, he loses them. That is historically how it goes. Of course if it looks like he doesn't have enough votes, they can always keep the polls open longer or count Chicago twice.
  9. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    Haven't you heard?

    Obama is making history, not repeating it.
  10. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

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    :bow: :bow: :bow:
  11. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    He's made history already. That's all he will do. I guarantee when the polls close, He will not win the election.
  12. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    You capitalized "He" when referring to Obama...are you buying into the messiah hype? :p:

    I meant to have a smiley in my last post, I was only half-serious. Hopefully the smiley goes through this time, haha.
  13. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    Not sure who was buying it but someone was sold a load of it. ;)
  14. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    Oh well played sir, lol.
  15. CanadianCowboysFan

    CanadianCowboysFan Lightning Rod

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    a guarantee is only worth something if you are willing to give something up if you are wrong

    since no one here really knows who you are, the only thing you can give up is something on this board, therefore, I must ask, what will you give up on this site if your guarantee is wrong?
  16. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    Already have a sig bet with Concord. Don't worry, it will be painful enough. And for him as well.

    Bu it's not something I am worried about. :D
  17. Big Dakota

    Big Dakota New Member

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    Dude, he's a cajun, life has punished him enough.
  18. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    Got a problem with Cajun's???
  19. Wheat

    Wheat Philosopher

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    Who wrote this? What poll are they citing about the 6 point difference?
  20. Big Dakota

    Big Dakota New Member

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    no just messin

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