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CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by irvin88, Aug 31, 2008.

  1. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

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    CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48
    Posted: 08:00 PM ET

    From CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

    ST. PAUL, Minnesota (CNN) — On the eve of the Republican convention, a new national poll suggests the race for the White House remains dead even.

    A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night shows the Obama-Biden ticket leading the McCain-Palin ticket by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent, a statistical dead heat.

    The survey was conducted Friday through Sunday, after both the conclusion of the Democratic convention and McCain’s selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

    A previous CNN poll, taken just one week earlier, suggested the race between Sens. McCain, R-Arizona, and Obama, D-Illinois, was tied at 47 percent each.

    “The convention — and particularly Obama's speech — seems to be well-received. And the selection of Sarah Palin as the GOP running mate, also seems to be well-received. So why is the race still a virtual tie? Probably because the two events created equal and opposite bounces — assuming that either one created a bounce at all,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.


    Barack Obama’s acceptance speech in front of a crowd of more than 80,000 people at INVESCO Field in Denver on Thursday night wrapped up the Democrats’ convention. It was one of the most widely watched political conventions in history.

    The poll suggests that the convention made people who watched more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket. Fifty-one percent of registered voters said the convention made them more likely to support Obama; only 32 percent said they were less likely to back the Democratic nominee.

    “Sixty-four percent rated Obama's acceptance speech as excellent or good, giving it significantly higher marks than any other recent acceptance speech. The Democratic Party’s favorable ratings went up, and the GOP's favorable ratings went down. Historically speaking, the convention was better than some and worse than others in the public's mind — not a home run, but a hit nonetheless,” says Holland

    Less than 12 hours after Obama accepted the Democratic presidential nomination, McCain introduced Palin as running mate, surprising the political world.

    So far, according to the poll, four in 10 Americans are not familiar with Palin. Thirty-eight percent of those questioned viewed her favorably and 21 percent unfavorably.

    Men appear to have a slightly favorably opinion of Palin than women; 41 percent of men view her favorably, five points higher than women.

    Americans seem evenly divided on whether McCain made a wise choice in selecting Alaska’s first term governor, who’s been in office for less than two years.

    Fifty-two percent rate the selection of Palin as excellent or pretty good; 46 percent rate it as fair or poor.

    Is Palin qualified to be president?

    Fifty percent say she is unqualified to assume the presidency if that becomes necessary; 45 percent say she’s prepared for the White House.

    In recent history, the only running mate to earn less confidence from the public was Vice President Dan Quayle in 1992.

    Ultimately however, the Palin pick may have minimal effect on the race for the White House.

    Almost six in 10 Americans say Palin’s selection as McCain’s running mate will have no effect on their vote. One in five say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain; one in five say it makes them less likely.

    Three quarters of all voters think McCain chose a female running mate specifically because he thought adding a woman to the Republican ticket would help him win in November.

    “If McCain was hoping to boost his share of the women's vote, it didn't work,” Holland said.

    “Women now appear slightly more likely to vote for Obama than they did a week ago, 53 percent now, compared to 50 percent. But McCain picked up a couple of points among men. More important, McCain solidified his party's base with the Palin selection, dropping Obama's share of the Republican vote six points to just 5 percent now. The Palin selection did not help among women — that may come later — but it did appeal to Republican loyalists.”

    The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. Poll was conducted from Friday through Sunday, with 927 registered voters questioned by telephone. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.
  2. zrinkill

    zrinkill Diamond surrounded by trash

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    Cant be good after the expected bounce from the Convention.
  3. VietCowboy

    VietCowboy Be Realistic. Demand the Impossible.

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    that more men who were polled like Palin over women is interesting...I've got some theories...probably not true, but they're fun

    I would love to write a few citations on some interesting studies to support any theory I come up with but it'll probably fall on deaf ears...
  4. CanadianCowboysFan

    CanadianCowboysFan Lightning Rod

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    What is the electoral college distribution? We all learned in 2000 that winning the popular vote is irrelevant in an overall sense.

    Gee, what a surprise, men like Palin more than women. The fact she is a VPILF and anti-choice has a lot to do with those numbers.
  5. Bonecrusher#31

    Bonecrusher#31 Active Member

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    :laugh2: :laugh1: :laugh2:
  6. zrinkill

    zrinkill Diamond surrounded by trash

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    Wow ....
  7. adamc91115

    adamc91115 New Member

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    As of right now with the averages of all the state polls, Obama would win 273-265.

    Many states are have average differences of less than 1% so its really hard to tell. And most polls are a very small sampling.
  8. ThaBigP

    ThaBigP New Member

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    Dude...a VPILF. New phrase. Wait for it to start showing up in pop culture. As for the "anti-choice" (pro-infanticide? we can play that game too) argument, you're falling into the typical lefty "groupthink" mindset. The idea that all women are monolithically on the anti-life/pro-choice side of the issue. The fact is that the split bounces around the 50/50 mark regardless of sex. And it's not likely anybody who has formed their opinion on the matter is going to change, so it's really a moot point. Might it be more likely that Palin is not well known, whereas Hillary is much more of a household name among women? But as for that disparity, the next couple of months will very likely erase that as an issue as well. Palin won't be unknown for long. In fact, that time has probably passed.
  9. Bonecrusher#31

    Bonecrusher#31 Active Member

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  10. CanadianCowboysFan

    CanadianCowboysFan Lightning Rod

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    We all play games with terminology. Those who are against choice are called "pro-life" implying that those who are pro choice are "anti-life" and vice versa.

    Thus is the world made.

    I would like to take credit for VPILF but alas I can't. Someone I know up here called her that and it fits.
  11. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    The political blog Wonkette has been calling her a "GILF" for almost a year now. They instantly dubbed her a VPILF the moment the nomination was announced.
  12. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    I've thought all along this was the true value of picking her.

    I don't claim to know the minds of the Hillary supporters, so I don't know if she'll help with them or not.

    But I DO know the minds of conservatives, and none of them were happy with McCain and 99% of them are thrilled with Palin... so she definitely helps in that regard.
  13. CanadianCowboysFan

    CanadianCowboysFan Lightning Rod

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    I know a GILF, she is about as hot as this GILF (allegedly) and the same age.
  14. VietCowboy

    VietCowboy Be Realistic. Demand the Impossible.

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    what is a gilf and vpilf?

    the only acronym I know is NILIF...nothing in life is free...which I practice with my boston terrier.
  15. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    They're all derivitive of the acronym M-I-L-F.

    M-I-L-F is a term that was popularized by the movie American Pie. It stands for "Mom I'd Like to F" with F being the F-word. Basically a "hot mom."

    GILF would be Governor I'd Like to...

    And VPILF would be Vice President...
  16. VietCowboy

    VietCowboy Be Realistic. Demand the Impossible.

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    gotcha.
  17. CanadianCowboysFan

    CanadianCowboysFan Lightning Rod

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    GILF can also stand for "Grandmother,,,,
  18. Danny White

    Danny White Winter is Coming

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    But it doesn't in this case.
  19. CanadianCowboysFan

    CanadianCowboysFan Lightning Rod

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    unless she is the grandmother :cool:

    It did in my case though, she is a 45 year old hot granny
  20. Dallas

    Dallas Old bulletproof tiger

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    You got nothing. I can't say it any clearer than that. :)

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