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Comparing DMac to Matt Forte

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by masomenos, Jan 29, 2008.

  1. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    "There's no comparison"

    Thats what most people would probably say. I mean one is the potential #1 overall pick in the draft, and the other is probably looking at a late 2nd or early 3rd round selection. The comparison doesn't even seem worth making, one is a blazingly fast super athlete, and the other is a decent speed guy who had a good showing at the Senior Bowl. But what do the numbers say?

    (Stats do not include bowl games, except Yards/YPC/TD)
    Attempts
    DMC - 309
    Forte - 314

    Yards/YPC/TD
    DMC -1830/5.6/16
    Forte - 2127/5.9/22

    Runs Where More Than One Defender Was Needed to Make Tackle
    DMC - 107 (34.6%)
    Forte - 99 (31.5%)

    Runs Resulting in First Downs
    DMC - 90 (29.1%)
    Forte - 108 (34.4%)

    Carries on Third Down
    DMC - 38, 20 converted into 1st downs, 18 failed (52.6% success rate)
    Forte - 27, 16 converted into 1st downs, 11 failed (59.3% success rate)

    Carries on Fourth Down
    DMC - 3, 2 converted into 1st downs, 1 failed (66.6% success rate)
    Forte - 5, 5 converted into 1st downs, 0 failed (100% success rate)

    Runs of 10 yards or more
    DMC - 35 (11.3%)
    Forte - 55 (17.5%)

    Runs of 20 yards or more
    DMC - 15 (4.9%)
    Forte - 20 (6.4%)

    Key Carries on Scoring Drives
    DMC - 39 (12.6%)
    Forte - 41 (13.1%)

    Tackled at or Behind Line of Scrimmage
    DMC - 40 (12.9%)
    Forte - 59 (18.8%)

    It's kind of eye opening isn't it? One player will get a 50-60 million dollar contract and the other will be lucky to get a fifth of that. Is the fact that McFadden played in the SEC while Forte played in C-USA enough to warrant the huge difference in salary? I think the most surprising thing was how Forte was both more successful at sustaining drives, and more successful at breaking long runs. Say what you want about difference in competition between the conferences, but Forte is an extraordinary player who isn't getting enough press. I'm not suggesting that Forte deserves to be considered for being the top pick in the draft, but I do think he should be considered as MB3s running mate.
  2. Biggems

    Biggems White and Nerdy

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    check out the 6th round of my sig
  3. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    I like the inclusion, but I think the absolute latest you'll see Forte go is in the 4th round, and thats if he has a poor combine.
  4. Biggems

    Biggems White and Nerdy

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    it all depends on how they view level of competition. Afterall he did go to Tulane...and their schedule was weak.....

    it will definitely depend on his combine numbers......i hadnt seen him play till the senior bowl, and he definitely left a positive impression on me. i like his hands as a receiver and i love how hard he runs, especially after contact (a far cry from JJ being tackled by a pinky)
  5. Natedawg44

    Natedawg44 Active Member

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    Compare DMac and Forte

    OK,
    They both play running back.
  6. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    And statistically they both play it very effectively.
  7. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    Strength of schedule makes up for a good bit. But I don't think McFadden (or any running back) is worth much more than the average running back, and we obviously already have an above-average running back.
  8. silverbear

    silverbear Semi-Official Loose Cannon

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    Yes...

    You should discount the stats of any running back that had the good fortune to play against UTEP by at least 20 per cent... as a former Miner, it gives me no pleasure to say that, but their defense this past season as quite putrid...
  9. BraveHeartFan

    BraveHeartFan We got a hat. I want a ring.

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    I agree with you completely.


    You're quickly becoming one of my favorite posters.
  10. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    If strength of schedule matters so much then why is a guy like Chris Johnson rated as high as a late first round pick? It just seems inconsistent.

    Against like opponents this is Chris Johnson v. Matt Forte

    Houston

    Johnson - 147 yards 2 TDs, Long of 43
    Forte - 85 yards 0 TDs, Long of 15

    UAB
    Johnson - 79 yards 1 TD, Long of 20
    Forte - 209 yards 1 TD, Long of 34

    Memphis
    Johnson - 301 yards 4 TDs, Long of 70
    Forte - 278 yards 2 TDs, Long of 51

    UTEP
    Johnson - 126 yards 0 TDs, Long of 32
    Forte - 171 yards 2 TDs, Long of 18

    Overall
    Johnson - 653 yards 7 TDs
    Forte - 743 yards 5 TDs

    Is it Johnsons speed that pushes him over the top? Is it that "homerun" threat that makes a player so much more valuable in the draft? The ability to take those yards in large chunks over getting them steadily. It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. If anything the ability to sustain drives and consistently pick up quality yardage seems more important than the ability to break a big run every now and then.
  11. DaBoys4Life

    DaBoys4Life Benched

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    Size speed wight Confrence

    Chris Johnson sub 4.3 speed look at what he did in his Bowl game.
    DMac compare his career stats to Matt Forte's. Lined up at QB against the number 1 team in the nation and drove them down the field.

    All-purpose yardage i would like to see how they compare in that since running backs do more than just run
  12. texbumthelife

    texbumthelife Well-Known Member

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    What you are forgetting is, we already have that drive sustaining, move the chains running back in Barber. If we do draft a running back high it will be based almost soley on that backs homerun ability, as that is all Barber lacks.
  13. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    I wish we really could compare DMac and Fortes career, but Tulan changed offenses this year and it was the first time Forte had ever been given a big workload (over 200 carries in a season). The change from a spread offense to a WCO certainly accounted for the increased production, but who's to say how he would have done in a west coast offense if he played his whole career in one.

    As far as combined yards, rushing, receiving, passing* and returning* (*if applicable).

    Dmac - 2433 offensive and special teams yards, 21 TDs
    Johnson - 2552 offensive and special teams yards, 22 TDs
    Forte - 2409 offensive yards, 22 TDs

    And Chris Johnson did have a fantastic bowl game, but he also fumbled the ball with less than a minute left when ECU was trying to run out the clock. Boise St. scooped and scored on Johnson's fumble and tied the game up. He had a terrific game, but also almost cost his team the game.
  14. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    Im not forgetting that actually, I'm just kind of ignoring it. The problem I have with a "homerun" back is that their "homerun" ability is strictly dependent on the amount of carries they get. They aren't going to break a long one just because we put them in the game, and a lot of times they're going to go for fewer yards than those backs who just pick up smaller chunks of yardage consistently.

    With two "Barber" style backs you have a consistent force that is fresh legged and can move the chains and sustain drives. Instead of complimenting Barber, why don't we just bring in someone who can do what he does when Barber isn't in? I just don't get the logic of, "Oh well, Barber's not in, let's completely change the style up." With constant punishment the D is going to wear down, and tired linebackers mean an open Jason Witten...an open Jason Witten means safety help on Witten which in turn means 1 on 1 match-ups for WRs...1 on 1 match-ups for WRs means shots down field, which means big plays downfield. It's not like drafting another hard runner would be limiting ourselves to a conservative offense.

    Consider these numbers:

    # of Games with at least 1 run of 20+ yards
    McFadden - 10
    Forte - 9
    Johnson -8

    # of Games with at least 1 run of 30+ yards
    Forte - 7
    McFadden - 5
    Johnson - 5

    # of Games with at least 1 run of 40+ yards
    Forte - 4
    McFadden - 4
    Johnson -3

    # of Games with at least 1 run of 50+ yards
    McFadden - 4
    Forte - 2
    Johnson - 2

    # of Games with at least 1 run of 60+ yards
    McFadden - 2
    Johnson - 2
    Forte - 1

    # of Games with at least 1 run of 70+ yards
    McFadden - 2
    Forte - 1
    Johnson - 1
  15. CrazyCowboy

    CrazyCowboy Well-Known Member

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    Wow....that is amazing to look at....
  16. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    That's a very good question, but I don't rate Johnson that highly, and I like Forte a good bit.
  17. dboyz

    dboyz Active Member

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    I don't know much about Forte. I don't think I saw him play much. Anyone have any highlights of him?
  18. DaBoys4Life

    DaBoys4Life Benched

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    So basically all Forte can do is run the ball no receiving TD's. Has average speed running above 4.5. He basically an average back and does nothing to stand out. Chris Johnson has basically speed can catch out of the backfield and has played special teams the same goes for DMac who can also play QB. Do you see the difference yet? Did Tulane have a bowl game if so did they win and what did matt forte do in that bowl game? Kevin Smith ran for almost 2500 yards and is projecting to be a 4th round prospect. I think this speaks to how deep the draft is at the RB posistion. After the Combine forte stock will go up even higher he will probally be a 2nd round prospect.
  19. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bbaIF22NGQ

    This is the only one I've found. Now don't expect to be wowed by explosive speed or anything, but I think it's hard not to be impressed by the kids vision, leg drive, and quick cut ability.
  20. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    Yeah, I just don't get it. I think all of this shows exactly what you were saying though, that there isn't that much of a difference between an average running back and an above average running back.

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