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Comparing DMac to Matt Forte

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by masomenos, Jan 29, 2008.

  1. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    Why is it that Marion Barber isnt one of the top RBs in the league? Is it the fact that among RBs who had more than 200 carries he had the third highest YPC? Maybe it's his 28 TDs over the past two seasons? He did only have 8 runs of 20 yards or more, but hey Adrian Peterson only had 11. Oh and Barber did only have 2 runs over 40 yards, which was the same as LT. Hmmm, what could it be that doesn't make Barber one of the best?

    Oh that's right, your completely unsupported bias.

    The top 5 punt returners from last season, in terms of YPR (with at least 30 returns) were:

    Josh Cribbs: Undrafted
    Andre Davis: 2nd
    Leon Washington: 4th
    Darren Sproles: 4th
    MJD: 2nd

    and kick returns:

    Josh Cribbs: Undrafted
    Leon Washington: 4th
    Darren Sproles: 4th
    MJD: 2nd
    Yamon Figurs: 3rd

    Of those players, only one had any significant impact on offense and that's MoJo Drew. Other notable return men like Hester and Roscoe Parrish, both 2nd round picks, also had no significant impact on any part of the game other than special teams. Chris Carr and Steve Breaston? Undrafted and 5th round pick, great return men but no impact on offense or defense.

    So that proves two things at once actually.
    1. You can wait till the later rounds and get a good return man, they aren't all Skyler Greens.
    2. The odds of someone being a good return man and also making a significant contribution in another aspect of the game is low.

    That's why it would make more sense to draft a RB who can run the ball, and a kick returner who can return kicks. It's just specialization.

    And yes, Bush has not lived up to his expectations. He's a below average RB, a below average return man, and a big threat out of the backfield as a receiver. He fumbles a lot, has low YPC and YPR and has a career punt return average of 7.4, which is lower than Patrick Crayton. But yeah, other than that he's been worth the 3rd overall pick.
     
  2. Bob Sacamano

    Bob Sacamano Benched

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    well, I do, we have 2 1st round picks, why not maximize one of them, and get an explosive player for your O w/ it?

    Jackson
    Choice
    Johnson
    Forte
    Forsett

    doesn't really make a big difference to me, just get a good back, and Jackson, followed by Chris Johnson tops my list
     
  3. DaBoys4Life

    DaBoys4Life Benched

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    hmmm If you really think that MB3 compares to any of the top RB's in the league then i feel sorry for you. In a dual RB system most of the RB average 5 ypc. As of matter of fact all the RB that had 5 ypc average is a product of a dual RB system. LT is man who carried his team on his back the whole year. When i see MB3 i see an average running back that runs really hard. MB3 can't carry the load on his own hasn't been a featured back since High School and really doesn't compare to the elite backs in the league when he breaks 1300 yards than he will get be up there
     
  4. burmafrd

    burmafrd Benched

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    MB3 runs with reckless abandon and loves to both take and deal out punishment. The downside of that is he takes a beating. How many times have we saw him fighting for a couple extra yards and getting gang tackled, and getting hit hard in the process. I just do not see a back getting 300 carries that way and making it through a whole season. ANd even if he does how many? I think about 200-240 carries (say 14-15 carries a game) is about the max for him if you want him playing another 4-5 years.
     
  5. Woods

    Woods Well-Known Member

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    This is what worries me most about MBIII.

    I'm not sure how long he will last in the NFL.

    I'd still like to see him split carries with another RB. Of course, he could get 60-70% of the carries, while the other RB gets the remainder.
     
  6. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    The fine gents over at FootballOutsiders.com seem to disagree with you about Marion Barber not being a top RB. He ranked 3rd in DPAR, which represents the total number of points scored due to plays where this RB carried/caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level RB in the same game situations.

    The top 5 RBs in DPAR are:
    1. Westbrook
    2. Tomlinson
    3. Barber
    4. Addai
    5. Peterson

    He also had a success rate of 49%, which is above average, and the second highest DVOA. Success rate represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. DVOA represents value, per play, over an average RB in the same game situations. A high success rate combined with a high DVOA is indication that the player gets the amount of yards needed on a consistent basis, and he very often gets more than needed.

    Just because Barber hasn't ever carried the load, doesn't mean he can't. It just means he's been in situations where there have been two talented RBs and there was no need to have one guy getting tired out there when you could have two RBs sharing the load. It cuts down on injuries, it keeps people from getting exhausted as a season goes on, and if you have the ability to do it then it's something you take advantage of.

    Barber has been a very consistent RB every time he's been around or above the 20 carry mark.

    2005
    22 carries for 95 yards 4.3 YPC 0 TD
    27 carries for 127 yards 4.7 YPC 2 TDs

    2006
    none

    2007
    19 carries for 96 yards 5.1 YPC 1 TD
    18 carries for 103 yards 5.7 YPC 1 TD
    22 carries for 110 yards 5.0 YPC 1 TD
    27 carries for 129 yards 4.8 YPC 1 TD

    As far as the 1300 yard mark goes, that's just an issue with carries, not Barber's ability level. All of the RBs who had 1300 yards this season also had more carries than Barber. If Barber had of got the same amount of carries as any of them, except Peterson, then he would have broken 1300 yards too. As evidenced by his success carrying the ball in the stats above, it's evident that Barber does have the ability to play at a high level when still getting a large amount of carries. The large amount of carries that are needed to have a 1300 yard season.

    Feel free to throw out some stats to back your arguments up.
     
  7. DaBoys4Life

    DaBoys4Life Benched

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    lol i was waiting for a post like this just so you can realize how foolish you are being i will ask a couple of question but before that. Did you factor in JJ numbers with MB3 numbers to equal out to his stats and proclaim that he can get over 1300 yards when i've seen Mb3 crumble in the 2nd half (giants game) For MB3 to be elite you would have to be willing to say some of the top 5-10 RB's in the league you wouldn't have on instead of MB3 so lets run down the list

    LT
    LJ
    Westbrook
    AP
    Frank Gore
    Willie Parker
    Joseph Addai
    Jamal Lewis
    Willis Mcghee
    Thomas Jones
    Rudi Johnson
    Stephen Jackson
    Duece Mcallister
    Ronnie Brown
    Cadillac Williams
    Warrick Dunn


    A lot of these backs suffered injuries and if healthy Barber would never see the probowl under any cirumstance. Like i said barber hasn't been the main back since High School. 21 carries in a first half never heard from again in the second half. I mean if you like your running backs to put up huge numbers in the first half and never hear from them agian then by all means MB3 is your guy. For you to be so optimistic about barber you sure are pretty grim about CJ. But do go on i love this barber fan boyism and how **** MB3 is the greatest even though he puts up average numbers and we should never give up on him even though he's an average RB. 16 games in a season if you can average 80 ypg that means you are are one of the better RB in the league 1000 yards means nothing but i don't blame you for feeling so high on MB3 after RB's like JJ and Troy Hambrick.

    Since you want stats just look at the amount of 100 yard games compared 2 AP who was a rookie compared to MB3 who has more yas and if you still consider MB3 elite after that then........... =/

    Physical backs breakdown in the league if you don't believe me ask Natron Means
     
  8. DaBoys4Life

    DaBoys4Life Benched

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    lol i was waiting for a post like this just so you can realize how foolish you are being i will ask a couple of question but before that. Did you factor in JJ numbers with MB3 numbers to equal out to his stats and proclaim that he can get over 1300 yards when i've seen Mb3 crumble in the 2nd half (giants game) For MB3 to be elite you would have to be willing to say some of the top 5-10 RB's in the league you wouldn't have on instead of MB3 so lets run down the list

    LT
    LJ
    Westbrook
    AP
    Frank Gore
    Willie Parker
    Joseph Addai
    Jamal Lewis
    Willis Mcghee
    Thomas Jones
    Rudi Johnson
    Stephen Jackson
    Duece Mcallister
    Ronnie Brown
    Cadillac Williams
    Warrick Dunn


    A lot of these backs suffered injuries and if healthy Barber would never see the probowl under any cirumstance. Like i said barber hasn't been the main back since High School. 21 carries in a first half never heard from again in the second half. I mean if you like your running backs to put up huge numbers in the first half and never hear from them agian then by all means MB3 is your guy. For you to be so optimistic about barber you sure are pretty grim about CJ. But do go on i love this barber fan boyism and how **** MB3 is the greatest even though he puts up average numbers and we should never give up on him even though he's an average RB. 16 games in a season if you can average 80 ypg that means you are are one of the better RB in the league 1000 yards means nothing but i don't blame you for feeling so high on MB3 after RB's like JJ and Troy Hambrick.

    Since you want stats just look at the amount of 100 yard games compared 2 AP who was a rookie compared to MB3 who has more yas and if you still consider MB3 elite after that then........... =/

    Physical backs breakdown in the league if you don't believe me ask Natron Means and Jamal Anderson next thing you hqve us having the refigator in the backfield. Also these touchdowns and sucess ratio mean nothing 2 me when some1when he had i like tim tebow can have 12 roushing TD's 3 ytards or less or JEROME Bettis when he had 9 TD's an average 1 YPC
     
  9. dmoore

    dmoore New Member

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    Barber is an elite back. That list is laughably bad. There's 3 backs on there that I'd take over Barber; LT, Westbrook, and AD. Addai's another possibility, but I need to see more of him before I decide that. I believe Barber could easily carry a full load and be successful, but I still want to draft a back to split carries with. Running backs don't last long in this league, and with Barbers running style I don't think he'd be effective carrying a huge load after 3 or 4 seasons. I just want a guy to take some of the pressure off him, not be his replacement.
     
  10. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    Bingo.
     
  11. DaBoys4Life

    DaBoys4Life Benched

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    MB3 elite? My list was bad? ok ook lets your list of top ten backs. Take off your homer glasses and be realistic. He can't carry the full load why can't he because of his running style that you guys love so much. Because it takes so many guys to take him down he is better serve splitting time. You need to see more of Addai but you've seen enough of barber to consider him elite. Granted some of the RB's i listed didn't have the best year but all of them except ronnie brown has had a 1000 yard season. I don't want MB3 to be the starter nor do i think he should. I think he is better when he comes from off the bench and they should continue to do that theres no point of him putting up numbers in the first half and we still end up losing. MB3 is prob only the decline right now he's been in the league 3 years his numbers and carries went way up and he is a very physical back which is a double edge sword.
     
  12. Rack Bauer

    Rack Bauer Federal Agent

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    Agreed. I think Barber is as good as he is cuz of the role he has. If you tried to increase his carries, it would hurt him in the long run.

    And that's coming from one of the biggest MB3 fans alive.


    And about masomenos85 ... that dude brought some knowledge into this thread. Bravo. I'll have to keep an eye on this Forte kid. And that's coming from one of the biggest DMac bandwagoners alive.
     
  13. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    lol i was waiting for a post like this just so you can realize how foolish you are being i will ask a couple of question but before that. Did you factor in JJ numbers with MB3 numbers to equal out to his stats and proclaim that he can get over 1300 yards when i've seen Mb3 crumble in the 2nd half (giants game)

    Factor in JJs numbers in what regard? Are you asking if I just added JJ's numbers and MB3s #s? Are you asking if I took into account another RB also getting carries? Let me know for sure and I'll answer your question. In the mean time I'm going to take a stab in the dark and say this...If MB3 had of received half of JJs carries, on top of his own, then he would have been right on the cusp on 1300 yards even if he average 3.8 YPC on those extra runs. That's a full yard less than what he averaged on all of his other carries, but I calculated it like that just to take into account your assertion that he couldn't handle that many carries at the same productivity level. If you maintained the same YPC then he's at nearly 1400 yards rushing.

    Also, you don't get to cite one game (Giants) as the definition of MB3s career or abilities and have it count as a reasonable argument. If you want to talk about past trends, as opposed to isolated incidents, then I'm all years. But if you're going to point to one game then I'll do the same and show you that Hambrick should still be our starter, that Tom Brady is not a SB worthy QB, and that we should be 100% confident in Romo holding out FG snaps.

    As far as the Giant's game goes, Barber did not have a great half, but his performance was hardly poor enough to condemn his entire career. In the 3rd quarter he had 25 yards for 3.6 YPC (or maybe 3.4) and got a first down the only time he was given the ball on third down. In the 4th quarter he had 4 carries, which doesn't provide enough information about a player to say he's incapable of carrying the load when the games on the line. You can't define a player based on a quarter where he had low YPC, but was still converting on 3rd down, and a quarter where he got the ball 4 times.

    For MB3 to be elite you would have to be willing to say some of the top 5-10 RB's in the league you wouldn't have on instead of MB3 so lets run down the list

    LT

    LJ
    Westbrook
    AP
    Frank Gore
    Willie Parker
    Joseph Addai
    Jamal Lewis
    Willis Mcghee
    Thomas Jones
    Rudi Johnson
    Stephen Jackson
    Duece Mcallister
    Ronnie Brown
    Cadillac Williams
    Warrick Dunn


    A lot of these backs suffered injuries and if healthy Barber would never see the probowl under any cirumstance.


    The only players I would consider taking are Tomlinson, Westbrook, Peterson, Addai, Jackson and Brown. I see no evidence to suggest that Barber can't be as, or more, effective than the other players on that list if he's given the same amount of carries. If you want to look at Barber's stat lines in the games where he's been around 20 carries then you might see why. Unless you want to cite the Giants game where he had 1 below average quarter and another statistically poor quarter where he had 4 carries as proof that he can't handle getting the ball enough times to be a real starter.

    Like i said barber hasn't been the main back since High School. 21 carries in a first half never heard from again in the second half. I mean if you like your running backs to put up huge numbers in the first half and never hear from them agian then by all means MB3 is your guy.

    The same two quarters argument? And ever think that Barber may have shared carries because he was on teams fortunate enough to have two RBs that the coaches thought could be effective? I mean in college he was teammates with a guy who was a first round pick and in the pros he came onto a team with a very promising back, who, after Barbers first 2 years, was within 7 yards of having back to back 1000 yard seasons while averaging 4 YPC. Hmm that could have something to do with the shared carries thing huh? Teams weren't just giving the ball to some scrub in order to limit Barbers touches.

    For you to be so optimistic about barber you sure are pretty grim about CJ. But do go on i love this barber fan boyism and how **** MB3 is the greatest even though he puts up average numbers and we should never give up on him even though he's an average RB.

    Above average YPC
    Above average TD
    Above average 1st down%
    Above average 20+ yard runs
    Above average fumbling rate
    Above average rankings in FootballOutsiders.com rankings

    Where are the stats that say he's average? Yards? That comes with carries. If you're using yards as your measure of a player then why don't you just use Madden Ratings to support your argument?

    Ans yes I'm more grim about CJ than Barber. He played at ECU and has shown nothing in the NFL. That vs. a player who has proved himself in the NFL. How is that hard to understand? Proven vs. unproven?

    16 games in a season if you can average 80 ypg that means you are are one of the better RB in the league 1000 yards means nothing but i don't blame you for feeling so high on MB3 after RB's like JJ and Troy Hambrick.

    For Barber to average 80ypg with the number of carries that he got then he would have need over 6 yards per carry.

    Since you want stats just look at the amount of 100 yard games compared 2 AP who was a rookie compared to MB3 who has more yas and if you still consider MB3 elite after that then........... =/

    Carries. Again. And again, yards alone don't make a RB. Lendale White had more yards than Barber this year, do you take him instead? And yes, Peterson is better than Barber, I have no doubt saying that. Peterson is one of, if not the, best rookie RB the NFL has ever seen. Just because Barber isn't at Peterson's level doesn't mean he isn't one of the best.

    Physical backs breakdown in the league if you don't believe me ask Natron Means and Jamal Anderson next thing you hqve us having the refigator in the backfield. Also these touchdowns and sucess ratio mean nothing 2 me when some1when he had i like tim tebow can have 12 roushing TD's 3 ytards or less or JEROME Bettis when he had 9 TD's an average 1 YPC

    Finesse backs breakdown too. It's a part of playing football, all it takes is one wrong hit to end a season or a career, regardless of your play style. Who's proven more durable over their first three years, fast JJ or bruising MB3? If a RB gets carries then he takes punishment, regardless of his running style. Some people can handle more than others. You can't name two players our of thousands and assume that their outcome necessarily reflects Barbers.

    TD's mean nothing to you? Do you realize that TDs = points? Im not sure what the rule book says, but I'm pretty sure that a TD is worth the same amount regardless of how far out it was scored from. Are you serious, touchdowns mean nothing to you? Unreal. How can you penalize a guy for getting the ball on the 3 yard line and taking it as far as he can and scoring?
     
  14. DaBoys4Life

    DaBoys4Life Benched

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    By factoring in JJ numbers i meant his YPC 3.9 and his rushing yards and attempts. The numbers will dro p and he wont be average 5.0 YPC anymore he might hit 1300 but thats about it.

    Don't cite the giants game there isn't really much to go from MB3 career from when he started. They were those times when JJ was injured 2 years ago but MB3 was a rookie. The giant game is fresher nad stands more out in my mind then 2 years ago so i reference that.

    Your reasoning for MB3 being able to carry the load is ridic. Just because MB# hasn't done it before doesn't mean he can't the absence of evidence isn't the evidence of absence is basically what your saying. Since this is a show me league he hasn't shown me he can carry the load so i don't think he can until he proves other wise.

    Physical backs breakdown faster than finesee RB's taking those extra hits breaking that extra tackle is just shortening his career. I doubt he will be in the league for long. He's going to get chewed up and spit out by this league.

    I don;t think we will resign barber or give him a long term deal
     
  15. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    By factoring in JJ numbers i meant his YPC 3.9 and his rushing yards and attempts. The numbers will dro p and he wont be average 5.0 YPC anymore he might hit 1300 but thats about it.

    Yeah, I did account for lower YPC. Even if dropped a full yard, and he had 82 more carries (half of JJs) then we would have been right there at like 1270 yards or something.

    Don't cite the giants game there isn't really much to go from MB3 career from when he started. They were those times when JJ was injured 2 years ago but MB3 was a rookie. The giant game is fresher nad stands more out in my mind then 2 years ago so i reference that.

    I'm not saying don't reference it, I'm just saying don't use it as your only reference.

    Your reasoning for MB3 being able to carry the load is ridic. Just because MB# hasn't done it before doesn't mean he can't the absence of evidence isn't the evidence of absence is basically what your saying. Since this is a show me league he hasn't shown me he can carry the load so i don't think he can until he proves other wise.

    The only reason he hasn't shown he can be a fulltime starter is because he hasn't been given the chance. Based on the games when he's averaged 18+ carries, we know he can be productive. All I'm saying is that you can't pigeonhole a player by saying he can't do something when you don't give him the opportunity to prove otherwise, definitely not when the evidence points to him being able to.

    Physical backs breakdown faster than finesee RB's taking those extra hits breaking that extra tackle is just shortening his career. I doubt he will be in the league for long. He's going to get chewed up and spit out by this league.

    Just because your fighting for more yards doesn't mean you're taking punishment. Yes Barber does have more violent collisions than a lot of other backs, but that doesn't mean we have to replace him, it just means we have to have someone who can share some of that load.

    I don;t think we will resign barber or give him a long term deal

    We very well may just give him the 1st and 3rd tender this off season to see what else he has to offer and to maximize his return value. But if he starts having another productive year then we'll be making every effort to resign a young talent, just like we would at any other position.
     
  16. DaBoys4Life

    DaBoys4Life Benched

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    I think a tender of barber would be the best thing. A first and a 3rd rounder is right hopefully some team would get him. But if the coaches felt he could be the starter he would have been.
    thats a contradiction.

    I still want CJ
     
  17. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    No, it's not a contradiction. Just because you're fighting for more yards, you're not necessarily taking hard hits, you could just be churning your legs and moving a pile. Hence me saying, "Just because your fighting for more yards doesn't mean you're taking punishment.". That said, Barber even seems to hit the ground hard, he's a violent player, but it's not like every time he gets an extra two yards he's getting blasted. A lot of times Barber's power comes from his leg drive and his stiff arm. Where's the contradiction?

    You say that Barber would have started if the coaches thought he could. As I pointed out, Barber has always been around other good backs, there was no reason for him to carry the workload alone.
     

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