1. Welcome to CowboysZone!  Join us!  Come on!  You know you want to!

Draft Position Update and Scenario's

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by SDogo, Dec 26, 2010.

  1. SDogo

    SDogo Not as good as I once was but as good once as I ev

    13,900 Messages
    4 Likes Received
    No matter what happens Monday and Tuesday night we will have the 7th pick after this week although a Atlanta Win and a Vikings Win significantly improves our tie breaker situation for the final week.

    1. Carolina
    We have been mathematically eliminated from obtaining the #1 pick
    Status: Eliminated

    2. Denver
    Even though Denver won and is only 1 game behind us in the win column it is now mathematically impossible for us to win the tie breaker over them eliminating us from contention for the 2nd spot.
    Status: Eliminated

    3. Bengals
    The Bengals win today was huge. Should they pull an upset next week over Baltimore we hold a huge advantage in the SOS tie breaker. Even still, our chances at this point of landing the 3rd draft position requires a Broncos win, Bengals win, Buffalo win, Cardinals win a Seattle vs St. Louis tie and a New Orleans vs Tampa tie. In other words, I guess you can say we are technically eliminated from contention for the 3rd spot.
    Status: Less then 1%

    4. Buffalo
    Same situation goes for Buffalo, if they can pull out an upset over the Jets we also hold a huge advantage in the SOS tie breaker. Matter of fact I believe it to be mathematically impossible for us to lose this tie breaker with Buffalo. Unfortunately because of the two teams above Buffalo on this list coupled with the fact that the 49ers and Cardinals play each other there are about 20 scenario's that eliminate us from this spot and 1 that does not which requires a slew of ties and upsets and is just to silly to mention.
    Status: Less then 1%

    5. Arizona
    Plain and simple, there is no way we can catch Arizona on the SOS tie breaker. Arizona must win next week or they are simply a team we can not pass. Good news is this the 1st spot where we stand a mathematical chance of landing with out a act of god involved. At this point, it's also impossible for me to list all the scenario's involved that could help us land or lose this spot because it could come down to a SOS of schedule tie breaker with 8 teams and that's a lot of other teams involved with wins, losses and ties.
    Status: 20% likely

    6. 49ers
    Huge game next week with the Cardinals. Right now the 6th spot is our most likely destination. Only a couple possible scenario's (including a Dallas win) could knock us from this spot but as of right now we are more likely to land the 5th spot then get knocked out of the 6th spot.
    Status: 67% likely

    7. Cowboys
    Although this weeks games did not go a long way in improving our draft position this week there were some huge games that effected possible tie breakers heading into next week. Based on every possible scenario it's virtually impossible we can hold onto this spot after next week.
    Status: 1%

    8. Texans

    Interesting enough, today's outcomes have almost completely eliminated us from having any chance of landing the 8th spot. Please forgive me if I don't list the scenario's here! lol
    Status: 1%

    9. Lions
    Huge win today, thank you Detroit! Based on the SOS tie breaker it's not likely they can jump s again unless we beat the Eagles. There is a small mathematical chance we can drop to the 9th spot and that involves a Dallas win in every one of them coupled with two of the following teams winning (Detroit, Houston, Cleveland or Minnesota) as well as a Seahawks and Titans win.
    Status: 2%

    10. Browns
    See above, almost exact same scenario.
    Status: 4%

    Chances outside the top 10:
    11. 4%
    12. 1%
    13. Less then 1%*
    14. Less then 1%*
    15-32. Eliminated

    *= scenario's are so utterly ridiculous that I almost did not mention them but are still possible and you need 100% to make it mathematically correct:D

    Interesting notes:
    *depending on who you think will beat who next week it's actually in favor of Dallas should the Eagles win Tuesday. Although it will only come into play with tie breaker scenario's

    *Mondays Atlanta vs Saints game actually play's into 98% of the tie breaker procedures listed above. 90% of those favor us if the Falcons win.

    *Besides the Panthers with a 100% probability of landing the 1st pick Dallas has the highest probability of landing a spot (6th at 67%) then any other team at any other spot.
  2. MichaelWinicki

    MichaelWinicki "You want some?" Staff Member

    31,094 Messages
    1,950 Likes Received
    Thank you for your effort!
  3. Goldenrichards83

    Goldenrichards83 Active Member

    1,612 Messages
    0 Likes Received
  4. hendog

    hendog Active Member

    2,092 Messages
    20 Likes Received
    If SF and Arizona play next week won't we automatically jump ahead of the winner assuming we lose against the eagles?
  5. SDogo

    SDogo Not as good as I once was but as good once as I ev

    13,900 Messages
    4 Likes Received
    Thanks guys.

    After Tuesdays Eagles vs Minny game I will post a complete "who to root for" guide for the final week based on a Dallas win and a Dallas lost.
  6. Woods

    Woods Active Member

    12,374 Messages
    11 Likes Received
    Wow, that was thorough!
  7. SDogo

    SDogo Not as good as I once was but as good once as I ev

    13,900 Messages
    4 Likes Received
    Yes and then it will be a matter of the tie breaking procedure with the loser. If it's Arizona we can not own the tie breaker over them which is why it's very important they beat SF. It's probably one of the biggest games of the week besides our own.
  8. Hostile

    Hostile Peace Zone Supporter

    118,415 Messages
    1,458 Likes Received
    I am going to go ahead and assume a couple of things. Eagles will beat the Vikings and Saints will beat the Falcons.

    I am further going to assume these are the playoff teams.

    1. Falcons
    2. Bears
    3. Eagles
    4. Rams
    5. Saints
    6. Giants (Packers vs. Bears, Giants vs. Redskins next week)

    1. Patriots
    2. Steelers
    3. Chiefs
    4. Colts
    5. Ravens
    6. Jets

    Here then are the top 20 positions.

    2-13
    1. Panthers

    4-11
    2. Broncos
    3. Bengals
    4. Bills

    5-10
    5. Cardinals
    6. 49ers
    7. Cowboys
    8. Texans
    T9. Lions
    T9. Vikings
    11. Browns

    6-9
    12. Seahawks
    13. Titans
    14. Redskins

    7-8
    15. Dolphins

    8-7
    16. Jaguars
    17. Chargers
    18. Raiders (Patriots own pick)

    9-6
    19. Buccaneers
    20. Packers

    Wildcards
    21. Giants
    22. Jets
    23. Saints
    24. Ravens

    Division Winners
    25. Rams
    26. Colts
    27. Chiefs
    28. Bears
    29. Eagles
    30. Steelers
    31. Falcons
    32. Patriots
  9. SDogo

    SDogo Not as good as I once was but as good once as I ev

    13,900 Messages
    4 Likes Received
    That word seems to be real popular recently. Sure hope the old saying does not come back to haunt us.:laugh2:
  10. fanfromvirginia

    fanfromvirginia Inconceivable!

    4,009 Messages
    163 Likes Received

    Okay, great work but I'm not sure how you're so certain there will be tiebreakers and that we would lose them. I don't get why a tiebreaker would be necessary for us to be above Cincinnati if our SoS is better. Either it stays a lot higher or it doesn't. Relatedly, how do we know we can't jump Denver? What am I missing?
  11. hendog

    hendog Active Member

    2,092 Messages
    20 Likes Received
    So if the cards beat the 9ers and we lose then we can leapfrog both of them to the 5th pick? Sorry I'm stupid.
  12. SDogo

    SDogo Not as good as I once was but as good once as I ev

    13,900 Messages
    4 Likes Received
    Yeah but there are a couple things that could happen along the way. When your talking about SOS tie breaker with two teams from different divisions that's a lot of teams that can play into the scenario.
  13. SDogo

    SDogo Not as good as I once was but as good once as I ev

    13,900 Messages
    4 Likes Received
    I think we are headed the same direction but taking different routes.

    If the Bengals win and we lose we dont need to worry about any tie breakers besides the SOS and I don't believe there is any scenario that allows the Bengals to over take us.

    We cant jump Denver because the amount of unlike opponents and divisional games left does not allow for Denver opponents to accumulate enough wins to strengthen their schedule to a point we can pass them with the amount of divisional games (including our own) and like oppenents to accumulate enough loses to drop us lower.

    Did that make any sense? lol
  14. fanfromvirginia

    fanfromvirginia Inconceivable!

    4,009 Messages
    163 Likes Received
    Got it. Thanks!
  15. Randy White

    Randy White Well-Known Member Zone Supporter

    6,092 Messages
    29 Likes Received
    using that order, my mini-mock for now:

    1) Panthers= QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
    2) Broncos= DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
    3) Bengals= DT Nick Fairly, Auburn
    4) Bills= OLB Robert Quinn, N.Carolina
    5) * Cards= QB Blain Gabbert, Mizzou
    6) * 49ers= QB Jake Locker, Washington
    7) Cowboys= CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
    8) Texans= CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
    9) Lions= WR AJ Green, Georgia
    10) Browns= DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
    11) Vikings= QB Cam Newton, Auburn


    *= Trade bait


    The Cards and 49ers are not going to pick their QB that high, so depending on who they trade with, that list would change.

    and yes, I do believe Luck will declare.
  16. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

    41,152 Messages
    1,287 Likes Received
    there are serious rumblings that Michigan will not go after Harbaugh; if that is the case, you add the uncertainty in the NFL and there is a real good chance that Luck stays.
  17. dstew60105

    dstew60105 Active Member

    1,768 Messages
    8 Likes Received
    No way Locker or Gabbert are taken the high.
  18. SDogo

    SDogo Not as good as I once was but as good once as I ev

    13,900 Messages
    4 Likes Received
    and with a rookie cap likely to be implemented in any new CBA he will see his last chance to cash in like a fat cow go by the way side.

    There is no chance in hell he passes on the opportunity to retire with out ever playing a down by returning to Stanford and risking it all only to face a "capped" contract a year later.
  19. MichaelWinicki

    MichaelWinicki "You want some?" Staff Member

    31,094 Messages
    1,950 Likes Received
    You bring up a powerful variable that I hadn't thought too much about, but that is a potential game-changer for the upcoming draft and who declares.
  20. SDogo

    SDogo Not as good as I once was but as good once as I ev

    13,900 Messages
    4 Likes Received

    I think your going to see an unusual amount of JR's at least ask for a draft grade from the NFL this year and it in the end I'm pretty confident we will have a record number of JR's declare.

Share This Page