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Electoral Map

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Doomsday101, Jun 10, 2008.

  1. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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  2. Bach

    Bach Benched

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    Ohio and Florida will probably be the keys again. Obama doesn't do well with hispanics, interesting to see how that plays out in FL. PA may be in play for McCain this year too, but on the flip side VA is slowly trending towards the Democrats.

    But I agree, it'll likely be very close again.
  3. BigDPlayer

    BigDPlayer Member

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    It's crazy! I love the US system of Electoral College. So abstract, so zany.

    When you boil it dowm, the race comes down to a handful of states and the EC importance. And within those states, a (relative) handful of swing voters. Kinda crazy when you think about how influential the same states have become... seemingly every presidential election cycle.

    I'm curious, does anyone think we ought to go to an outright popular vote system or does the EC work for you?
  4. ConcordCowboy

    ConcordCowboy Mr. Buckeye

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    Ohio better do the frickin right thing this time and not give Bush a third term.

    :p:
  5. DFWJC

    DFWJC Well-Known Member Zone Supporter

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    Oregon only "leaning" toward Obama...no way. Oregon is a lock for him, IMO.
  6. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

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    The best analysis, at least thus far in this primary season, is at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

    The guy has been spot on on the vast majority of contests up to this point. He uses a mixture of polls and some formula. Pretty cool stuff.

    He has the race a dead heat going by the polls thus far.

    Methodolgy of FiveThirtyEight.com:

    "How is this site different from other compilations of polls like Real Clear Politics? There are several ways that the FiveThityEight methodology differs from other poll compilations. Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages. Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demograhics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to stabilize the results. Thirdly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes."
  7. Mavs Man

    Mavs Man All outta bubble gum

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    There are a lot of benefits to the EC system compared to the popular vote:

    1) Candidates from both major parties are forced to move to the center for the general election, and thus compete for states that are in play. If it was solely the popular vote that decided the presidency, Republicans would not be appealing to voters on both coasts, and Democrats would not be campaigning in the Bible belt. Bush would have stayed in Texas and the South and whipped up conservatives and evangelicals. Kerry/Gore would have done the same in California and New York.

    2) The EC prevents a candidate with regional appeal from usurping the election. Because of the points system, the winning candidate must win a majority of votes from a majority of states, assuring a broad base of supporting votes.

    3) Recounts are much easier in the EC method. Imagine the Florida fiasco if it was the popular vote instead, forcing a national recount. What a nightmare!

    4) The EC favors minorities and smaller states. Choosing a president via popular vote would disproportionately favor California, Texas, New York and Florida voters compared to the rest of the nation. Who else would matter?

    5) States would be encouraged to change voting requirements to increase their influence in the national vote (i.e. changing the voting age to 17 or even 16).

    Now, I am in favor in making the electoral votes automatic (no possibility of an elector changing their vote). Other than that, the electoral college, while not perfect, still works much better than the alternative.
  8. BigDPlayer

    BigDPlayer Member

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    Yes, the EC is a bizarre yet bizarrely fair system. Just strange...
  9. Bach

    Bach Benched

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    After 2000, the EC works for me. :D
  10. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    Personally I think we all lost. Because I think both were tools. Same thing for the w/kerry election...tools.
  11. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    The fact that PA and MN are toss ups should be at the least troubling for Obama. Florida will end up going McCain because I do not think the taste of what the dems did in the primary will be forgotten by then. That really leave Ohio. And in the end, I think it will go McCain as well.

    The number of solid red states are nice though, huh? :)
  12. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    I don't think the dems doing that to florida will be as important as the number of hispanics that might come out and vote McCain over Obama. But that is just a feeling.
  13. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    Excelent point.

    Did you eat fish today? They say it's good for the Brain...Paint.:D
  14. BrAinPaiNt

    BrAinPaiNt Brotherhood of the Beard Staff Member

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    Yesterday as a matter of fact.:D
  15. DStaub

    DStaub New Member

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    Don't worry, he's not running.
  16. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

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    He may have the runs though.
  17. Doomsday101

    Doomsday101 Well-Known Member

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    (CNN) -- Sen. Barack Obama is setting his sights on some traditionally red states, hoping to rout Sen. John McCain by redrawing the Electoral College map.

    Both candidates are eyeing states that were traditionally seen as out of reach for their party.

    There are potential map changers because of a variety of factors: Obama and McCain's personal attributes, policy positions and even the year we are in.

    These factors could redefine the electoral map, to a degree.

    The map is based on the CNN political unit's analysis of several factors, including polling, voting trends, ad spending, candidate visits and guidance from the campaigns and political strategists.

    The candidates have to start by locking in their foundations. For Obama, the Democratic foundation includes 10 states plus the District of Columbia, giving a total of 153 Electoral College votes. Check out CNN.com's latest interactive electoral map »

    The states are: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont.

    A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House.

    There are four more states CNN thinks are leaning Democratic. Those have a total of 37 electoral votes. Watch John King break down the electoral map »

    If you're Obama, your first move should be to lock in those states, get the right staff and try to move the poll numbers your way to make sure you don't need to be spending a lot of time and resources in places that should be yours.

    For McCain, there are 16 states CNN considers to be safe Republican states based on past voting patterns and recent polls.

    Those 16 states, which would net 125 electoral votes, include: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.

    Another eight states, according to CNN, are leaning Republican. Most of those states could eventually become Republican. Those states would net another 69 votes.

    As of Tuesday -- and it's early -- there are about 194 votes from either leaning or safe Republican states, and 190 from leaning or safe Democrat states.

    There are a dozen states CNN would consider toss-up states -- and it's an interesting mix. Some are always toss-up states, such as Florida and Ohio.

    CNN has color-coded these states in yellow. See the map

    CNN has determined that Pennsylvania and Michigan are toss-ups for Obama. Those have been reliably Democratic states in the past, but are states where he had problems with white, blue-collar, working-class voters.

    If McCain can take Pennsylvania and Michigan off the Democratic map, that would change the election.

    Then there's New Hampshire. McCain won the state's primary. The state has been trending Democratic. It should be a state for Obama, but it could be a toss-up.

    Virginia, which used to be a red state, has recently become more Democratic -- especially in the northern part of the state where a large segment of the population lives.

    Obama has the support of the state's Democratic politicians -- Gov. Tim Kaine, former Gov. Mark Warner and Sen. Jim Webb.

    Out West, Colorado is a state Obama wants to take out of the Republican map. CNN would call it a toss-up state. The state recently elected Democrats, Gov. Bill Ritter and Sen. Ken Salazar.

    For Obama, the focus may be on taking away some Republican states, or at least forcing the Republicans to spend time and desperately needed resources there.

    It's the same for McCain, who will compete for blue-collar, Reagan Democrat votes in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

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