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FOX News Poll: Obama Leads McCain, 49% to 40%

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by Beast_from_East, Oct 23, 2008.

  1. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

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  2. canters

    canters Active Member

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    Look at the internals of the poll. The sample is too small. Go with Ras and Gallop, IMO. Both have Barry up, but by smaller margins.
  3. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

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    Zogby has Obama up 12 today and Zogby says in his poll that he uses more Republicans than any other pollster out there.

    This thing looks over.
  4. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

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    Yes. He uses a heavier Republican lean than other pollsters. He picked Kerry as the popular vote winner in 2004 and compensated a little to the right for this election.

    I'm not a big fan of Zogby's national polling, but they're good at showing trends.

    Zogby Interactive polling, on the other hand, is trash hence it's weighted as trash in 538's pollster rating.
  5. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

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    [IMG]

    Good pollster accuracy chart from Fivethirtyeight that was made during the primaries.
  6. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

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    Just because you want it to be over means nothing.

    I hope McCain wins just to watch you scream and cry and act like a 5 year old who lost his pacifier.
  7. Wheat

    Wheat Philosopher

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    I think McCain still might win.

    But if he doesn't......what will you do? Your keyboard must be waterproof from all your crying lately.
  8. Maikeru-sama

    Maikeru-sama Mick Green 58

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    :laugh2:
  9. silverbear

    silverbear Semi-Official Loose Cannon

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    How very odd, I'm looking forward to watching YOUR meltdown... :D
  10. Bach

    Bach Benched

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    Says the guy that went running away not long ago. :laugh2:
  11. bootsy

    bootsy Benched

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    This is what I don't fully understand about Gallup. They have likely voters, registered voters, traditional likely voters or something like that. Which one is the most accurate as to how the election could go?
  12. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

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    Traditional is if demographics follow previous election demographics regardless of whether the person being polled says they are going to vote or not. They're just going based on previous elections on who actually did vote.

    Expanded is if the person on the other end says hey, I'm voting or have already voted. They include that person in that LV model.

    RV is just asking if they're registered and then polling them.

    I think expanded will prove to be most accurate.
  13. Big Dakota

    Big Dakota New Member

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    It will probably be a 51-48 type popular vote, but the EC will be a landslide.
  14. silverbear

    silverbear Semi-Official Loose Cannon

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    Excuse me for putting friendships ahead of arguing politics...

    I'm betting you wish I'd stayed away...
  15. Phrozen Phil

    Phrozen Phil Active Member

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    Welcome back. Is this the end of your self-imposed exile?
  16. bootsy

    bootsy Benched

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    Yeah that's what I though too that expanded is the most accurate. I read of fivethirtyeight that the problem with these polls is that some people have already voted and they still poll those people. Thanks for the info.
  17. bootsy

    bootsy Benched

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    I think this will be the results as well. A close popular vote but the EC will be a wide margin.
  18. NinePointOh

    NinePointOh Active Member

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    No, it's not. Do you have any idea how a margin of error is calculated?
  19. silverbear

    silverbear Semi-Official Loose Cannon

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    Yup... couldn't stay away any longer, the election has me too wound up...

    I figure I'm pretty happy with the way things are going, so I shouldn't feel the need to get ugly... if I find that I'm slipping back into bad habits again, though, I'm back outta here...

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