Fredd: Armchair GM

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by Fredd, Mar 24, 2013.

  1. Fredd

    Fredd Well-Known Member

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    So, at this stage in the off season, I look at what has transpired, and like many of you, I have my opinions on what is to come next. Thus, if I were GM, then these are my thoughts (long-winded, but as the new GM, I have a lot to say and do):

    * Unique Talent (UT) - determine, internally, what the term "unique talent" means to the organization; this term to be used in contract discussions and is the type of player that can make you defer from the other rules of contracts (ex: Troy Aikman in his prime)
    * Contracts & Extensions - I make it WELL known in circles throughout the NFL that I do not sign or extend anyone under any circumstances for more than 3 years - ever. It would take a UT to even consider it. The point of making this public is to gain the trust of the fan base (who pay my salary) so that they see we have a future plan for the organization; we would lose out on some Free Agents (i.e.: we would not have signed Carr last year under this policy change), but that would also lead to the long-term financial stability of the team, which will eventually open more options in future years
    * Contracts (30+) - no one, and I mean no one over the age of 29 gets hired/signed/extended for more than 3 years EVER unless they are a UT. Sounds like the contract & extensions policy, but this is in writing at Valley Ranch so that people know I mean business
    * Draft guru - I search far and wide to hire a true draft geek; someone that eats/breaths/sleeps nothing but players from the college ranks at all levels with no care to what the coaches want - a true BPA board; I want this guy to create the initial board and then to work with the Coaching staff after that (As it would be their decision of course); it might be too late this season so I will just have to do it myself :D

    * Romo - extend him for 3 years (not 5); give him a deal for 3yr/$55m ($33m guar) through 2015...we give him a $15 signing bonus and salaries of $3m/$15m/$22m. He gets $18m this year, and the cap hit goes down to $8m, saving $7.8m against the cap in 2013; If Tony plays well, leads them to the promised land, etc., then we use that 3rd year as another restructure year; Tony is not likely to want to do this as he will look for longer stability; so, tell him that we appreciate you and will just let him play under his current contract and we will revisit later; this means it is a contract year and put up or shut up time
    - in next year's draft, you go out and draft one of the QB's (there will be plenty); this puts pressure on Romo, assuming he signs the 3 yr extension, to earn the job in 2015; I love Romo, but this is a business;
    * Spencer - three schools of thought...a) if we extend Romo, no need to extend Spencer, or at least, keep that in your back pocket in case you want; b) we let Spencer's Tag ride and see if he can play DE in a 4-3; c) trade him this year
    - IMO, "c" is not going to happen; Kiffin/Marinelli want to see Spencer @ DE (so do I as the GM); but, we extend him IF we can't agree with Tony on an extension;
    * Free - it is a foregone conclusion that as the GM, I don't pay Free his projected amount for this year. Thus, I hang on to him to see how the draft goes. Free is a good guy to have as a back-up at either OT position; But, I tell him post-draft that he takes a hefty pay cut, or plan on being on the unemployment line on June 2nd
    * CAP SAVINGS - as the GM, I go into the next few weeks with the thought process of having $10m (minimum) to spend IF I WANT TO; If nothing jumps out at me, then that savings goes towards next year

    * To sign or not to sign - OK, see the moves above, I plan on improving the team in free agency so that the draft truly becomes BPA. Thus, here is what I do. I extend Tony for the 3 years. I extend Spencer for 3 years. I KEEP Free but at a $2m/yr deal, or he is hitting the pavement on June 2nd, no regrets either way. These moves likely give us about $12m in cap savings for Romo & Spencer and then about $5m-$7m more for Free;
    * Signings - these are the guys I target BEFORE the draft
    - Eric Winston (OT) - I want this guy @ RT; many like Parnell and I do too; but, I like Parnell as the 1st guy off of bench to back up Winston and TySmith; 3yr/$20m ($10m SB, $1m/$4m/$5m, $15m guar; 2013 cap hit $4.3m)
    - Brandon Moore (OG) - older, yes, but a very good and durable G; 3yr/$15m ($5m SB, $1m/$4m/$5m, $10m guar; 2013 cap hit $2.7m)
    - Rhonde Barber (S) - older, yes, but his experience in the Tampa-2 is critical to the young safeties; 2yr/$10m ($5m SB, $1m/$4m, $6m guar, 2013 cap hit $3.5m)
    - total cap hit for these signings = $10.5m (a lot left for the draft)

    * Trades - uh-uh; I will take phone calls, but let callers know that if I am not swept off of my feet, that I don't trade my picks for any reason; thus, if someone is desparate, then I will benefit from any trade; otherwise, I pick at my spot
    * 1st round - based on my FA moves, the OL is not necessarily the biggest need any longer; thus, follow my draft geek's plan and take BPA; my preference is the best DT available or if the best ones are gone, I take the best DE, or if they are gone, Vacarro or (wait for it), Patterson or Austin at WR; that is the benefit to removing many of the biggest needs for the team in FA; my geek-board has Warmack and Cooper already gone, but if one of them is still there, then I could go OG, but only if it is one of those two
    * 2nd round - depends on first round, right? not necessarily; I still follow my geek-board; but, preferences are a DE pass rusher to eventually replace Ware/Spencer and to give them some snaps off; I could see our first two picks being DT and then DE (or vice versa);
    * 3rd round - if I haven't taken a safety yet, I take the best one available in the 3rd round, period; We have two young guys on the roster and Barber starting; but, you have to keep the talent there
    * Other 3 picks - we still go with BPA, with a lean towards getting a back-up RB in the 4th, potentially someone for the OL in round 5 and then take a flyer on a QB in round #6 (I am of the belief that we grab a QB every year - throw them against the wall and see who sticks)

    * Money - extending Romo & Spencer keep them on the team for 2 more years and possibly longer; we use the cap relief to fill the 3 holes as mentioned; this year is the last one where I make these types of resutructures unless I have to do so next year to get under the cap; each year, that should lessen to the point of getting ahead of the game - the goal as the new GM is to never have dead money on the books, it will take a few years to get there and that is why future extensions are maximum of 3 years
    * Personnel - the biggest needs currently are OL, DL, and S; the OL has been addressed and now, if healthy, could be a strength with Winston, Livings, Costa, Moore, Smith being backed up by Parnell, Berny, Free; the Safety position has experience and youth with our two current safeties being pushed by Barber and our draftee. The DLine will get a boost in this draft with at least one guy in the first two rounds
    * Health - must be healthy - if so, this team, as I have now upgraded it, can win now. There is enough inherant skill backing up players at most positions to feel comfortable heading into the season
    * OUTLOOK - we go 10-6 or 11-5, win the division and at least one playoff game; potentially, if healthy, we could get a deep run in the playoffs

    So says Fredd, the GM
    OK, what are your opinions? Take your shots; what did I miss?
  2. austintodallas

    austintodallas Consider Yourself Sucked

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    You're hired.
  3. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure that Jerry considered Ratliff, Austin, Ware, Witten, etc.. as Unique Talents. If you're making exceptions to your 3 year rule, then you're going to end up signing the big name players to long term contacts just like Jerry did.

    You appear to contradict yourself.

    This gives him a 2nd year cap hit of 20M and a 3rd year hit of 27M based on just the new contract.

    You omitted 5.3M of additional money that will hit the cap in 2013 as prorated money from his previous contract and another 8M that was spread out over 3 additional voidable years. The 8M will all hit the 2014 cap if 2013 is his last year with the team.

    So your committed to BPA but not really?

    You're going to keep Free with a pay cut with Winston the starter and Parnell the top backup.

    You're always going to be operating at a disadvantage to other teams if you can only sign players to 3-year contracts. The other teams will spread the signing bonuses out over 5 years; whereas, you'll only be able to spread them out over 3 years.

    The only way you're going to get players to sign these 3 year contracts is by making a large portion of them guaranteed. You're not really mitigating the risk any better than you would by giving them 5 year contracts with a lower percentage of guaranteed money.

    I could go on...
  4. CopenhagenCowboy

    CopenhagenCowboy Well-Known Member

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    That's a need based draft. Really, it doesn't have much to do with drafting BPA.

    But very cool to see your GM plan. Thanks!

  5. Fredd

    Fredd Well-Known Member

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    perhaps, but I would not consider any of them unique talents right now, nor is Mr Romo...when Ware was younger, perhaps and possibly Witten

    no intention to do so; more that I want someone without blinders on to make a real draft board; then, once created, deliver it to the coaching staff to make revisions

    yes on the 2nd year hit, and I would have zero intentions of paying that cap hit in year 3; it would be another restructure or cuts-ville

    yes, I didn't think of previous contracts, I will agree with you there

    I am thinking more of BPA, with a tweak towards looking at positions of need; think of it as weighting the BPA at about 75% of the decision and the other 25% based on need; if there is no specific need at a selection, then I go BPA regardless of position

    on the fence, but if cheap, yes, I would keep both..I wouldn't lose any sleep in getting rid of him altogether

    I am talking about getting things in order...the FO is spiraling out of control withthe potential for dead money; again, my statement is that I give 3 year contracts for the most part; there will be exceptions; but, without drawing the line somewhere, this team becomes the 49ers of the late 90's

    perhaps in some cases, but not in all; these types of moves are for the future of the team, not the future of the individual players; the goal is to draft and keep your own talent, not to go nuts in free agency every year (although, admittedly, I assume bringing those 3 guys in to help this team compete in 2013)

    please do, love the discussion; you make very valid points, but I am trying as the ficticious GM to think of the future of the franchise and to make them viable not only this year, but into the future; if players don't want to come here because of the 3-year rule, then we don't bring them in; I want to give the guys the money that have bled for this team (for the most part); keeping current players happy and building through the draft are the way to do it; but, we have to get out of cap hell
  6. Frozen700

    Frozen700 Well-Known Member

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    Ronde Barber???


    Listen to yourselves....are we this desperate?
  7. Fredd

    Fredd Well-Known Member

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    desparate? seriously? this guy still has some miles left to him and if affordable, he would make a very nice player/instructor to a defense that has never played the Kiffin system...I am not sure if they will employ the Tampa-2 as Kiffin ran in the past, but assuming some type of hybrid, it is better to get a few experienced people in there...not to mention that the S position is a glaring need at the moment until they see if our two injury boys cna actually play a game or two (let alone an entire season)
  8. Frozen700

    Frozen700 Well-Known Member

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    I hear you.....

    Just would rather not try and get a quick fix at the position
  9. Tex

    Tex Active Member

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    POSSIBLY witten? You guys kill with some of the CRAP posted here. He is one of the top ten TE's for sure to ever play the position. POSSIBLY? lmao

    Geee lets go get another TE to catch 80+ passes a year. They grow on trees
  10. DavidS

    DavidS Well-Known Member

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    Someone has too much time on their hands......

  11. rojan

    rojan Active Member

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    Ill be surprised if Barber makes a total of 5 mill through out the rest of his career and you want to give him 5 mill/year.

    you are also overpaying for Moore.

    I do like both of these guys at much lower salaries though.
  12. Fredd

    Fredd Well-Known Member

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    read what i said, this has nothing to do with him being a top 10 TE of all time...if the team put together a "more than 3 year contract extension" group, he could be on that list earlier in his career...geez, don't get so butt-hurt....

    just trying to pass the time until the least I contributed something to a discussion, albeit it something a little unrealistic, not like the sparkling commentary that you tossed out here

    man, people have said that there was just WAY too much negativity in most of the threads on this site...
  13. 03EBZ06

    03EBZ06 Need2Speed

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    While I don't like negativity and would agree that there are too much negativity on this site, I'm not sure what you were expecting with as you've stated it is unrealistic scenario. There are so many unrealistic and bizarre scenarios threads on this site, all I can do is shake my head.
  14. irishline

    irishline Well-Known Member

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    Let's put it this way... would you not say that the person who, less than 4 months ago, set the all-time NFL record for receptions in a season by a TE a "unique talent"? Cause if you don't think so then I'm not exactly sure what you consider it to be?

    We're not talking "all-time" here, we're talking about a TE catching more passes in a season than anyone else in NFL history just this past year. Hence why I see you getting push-back on this one, and imo deservedly so.
  15. Fredd

    Fredd Well-Known Member

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    unrealistic since I don't work in a front office nad thus, I don't know every detail of how a FO works...I was looking for debate, and for people to let me know what they think, not just to trash one piece of it with nothing else added...give an opinion, but back it up rather than just say "oh witten IS a unique talent"...I don't believe him to be of the type to be such that he should get more than a 3 year deal, based mostly on his opinion...

    I understand the sentiment regarding the past, he may have been considered a UT, but not any more...he just had a fantastic season and I love the guy, but at his age, would I give him a 4 or more year deal? not if I had a policy of 3 years...the point of that piece of the thread was to say that we don't have anyone currently on the team that I would extend past 3 years if we had such a policy (there are some youngen's that could get to that status) ...extending beyond the 3 years is what has gotten this team into trouble, I am saying that as a GM, I would try to avoid that as much as possible. Witten, while he is a HOF player, would likely not get a deal longer than 3 years
  16. Nation

    Nation Well-Known Member

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    The 3 year plan is illogical because you'll have to pay your highest paid players well-above market contracts to get them to commit, which is going to have a trickle down effect down the rest of the roster and leave you with garbage for depth when players get injured.
  17. Super_Kazuya

    Super_Kazuya Well-Known Member

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    I'm assuming that he means it as a guideline and not a hard fast rule (there would have been some no-brainer signings over the years in the NFL that wouldn't have been made under these guidelines). My biggest problem is that it seems to be based around the idea of never, ever handing out a bad contract, when historically teams that do this never win anything. Other than that, it's a sound GM plan.
  18. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    Even more problematic. You'll totally miss on situations like we have with Sean Lissemore and Barry Church - we signed both guys to 5 year deals for relatively cheap. The length of those deals allowed us to buy out several years for each guy when they could be unrestricted free agents. Long term deals like that end up saving you ton of money as the players give up their UFA leverage for financial security up front.

    The other problem with three year deals is that just about every long term deal we write boils down to a three year deal. If you look at contract structure, you'll see that after the third year, we are always in a situation where cutting the player will be cheaper against the salary cap than keeping the player. Every deal is basically a three year deal anyway.

    I think the OP doesn't understand that NFL contracts aren't guaranteed for the length of the deal
  19. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    I must say that you take criticism very well. I respect that.

    I think my plan would be easier.

    Romo: Sign him to a new contract such that the new contract and remaining money from the old contract get his cap hit under 10M for each of the next 3 years. They might have to give him a big guarantee in year 2 of the contract and then restructure it after the 1st year just like they did with Carr. Carr signed a 50M contract but the 1st year hit was only 3.6M and the 2nd year hit is about 6M.

    Salary Cap: Keep extending contracts and stretching the cap space for the next 3 years with a priority on signing the players coming off their rookie contracts to new deals (i.e. Lee, Carter, Dez, etc..). Use any method available to acquire additional Free Agents if needed.

    Without Romo counting 16.8M, Spencer at 10.6M and the combined 9M for Free and Spears base salaries, 2014 shouldn't be that difficult to manage. Also, they will not have the 5M "Mara" penalty to deal with.

    They will have to account for the new contracts of players like Tyron Smith, Lee, Dez, etc.; however, by 2015 players like Ratliff, Hatcher, Livings will probably be gone as well as dead-money from players like Free.

    After 3 years (approximately): Dump Romo, Ware, Witten and all other players over 30. Without any of their base salaries, the cap hits for any dead-money can be taken all in 1-year and they will be drastically under the cap the following year. This will result in tanking the season and getting the #1 overall draft pick. Hopefully this occurs on a year where there is an Andrew Luck type of QB available in the draft.

    After the 1-year of doom: The salary cap will be "clean", they will have a core of veterans (Tyron Smith will still only be 26) and a new QB to build around. If they stayed with the BPA draft approach during the past 4 years, then they should have a good, young roster.
  20. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    no offense bro but you're first rule ends all discussions if I am the hiring party.

    you don't limit rookies to 3 year deals. that's when you get guys cheap and keep them under control. making a self-styled statement about 3 years is working into the players hands. this is to say nothing of eating more cap hits than you want to eat each season because salary cap hits aren't spread thinly enough.

    troy aikman wasn't a unique talent. he was a unique player/leader, deion was a unique talent. big distinction there.

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