1. Welcome to CowboysZone!  Join us!  Come on!  You know you want to!

Gallup Poll: Obama 49% McCain 47%

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by trickblue, Oct 16, 2008.

  1. trickblue

    trickblue Old Testament... Zone Supporter

    28,942 Messages
    356 Likes Received
    Polls... for what they're worth...

    GALLUP's 'traditional' likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll's margin of error... Developing...
  2. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

    15,496 Messages
    2,904 Likes Received
    Gallup Daily shows obama 49 and McCain 43.

    I dont think the race is down to 2 points, the New York Times/CBS poll just released had Obama by 14.

    McCain himself said he was 6 points down just the other day. I think this poll has some errors in the sampling since no other poll in the country has the race this close.

    I tend to look at the trend of all the polls to get a sense of the race. Now if other polls start tightening, and the trend line starts swaying back to McCain, he may still have a chance.

    However, one poll does not make a trend line so I am skeptical of a 2 pt poll at this time.
  3. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

    1,668 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    McCain is going to win.
  4. Wheat

    Wheat Philosopher

    2,924 Messages
    0 Likes Received

    Interested in a Sig Bet?
  5. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

    15,496 Messages
    2,904 Likes Received
    I love your enthusiasm, but look at the state by state polls and you should sober up pretty quick.

    McCain has virtually no chance to reach 270, even if he did hypothetically win the popular vote.

    The fact that the only "blue state" McCain is contesting is PA and most polls show Obama up by double digits there. Thus, the entire battleground is now made of red states and McCain would have to win almost every single one now to get to 270.

    Even under the best case scenarios, almost impossible for McCain to get 270.
  6. joseephuss

    joseephuss Well-Known Member

    21,953 Messages
    1,535 Likes Received
    Whomever wins will do so in a close election. Whomever wins will once again not be able to claim a mandate from the people because it will be a very close election. This thing won't be over until the wee hours of the morning.
  7. Route 66

    Route 66 Active Member

    3,310 Messages
    6 Likes Received
    I would consider putting the Skins Rule Forever on my sig before I would ever put an Obama/Biden 08 sig at any time.
  8. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

    1,668 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    If McCain wins you need to make a collage of Ayers/Wright/Rezko with the saying "No We Can't."

    If Obama wins, I'll just head for another board for a few months.:D
  9. Route 66

    Route 66 Active Member

    3,310 Messages
    6 Likes Received
    You have to realize that election night is an "anything can happen" night. There have been landslide victories that weren't so telegraphed early on by the polls and vice versa.
  10. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

    1,668 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    Obama is playing Cowboys defense right now, slowly letting the other team score.
  11. trickblue

    trickblue Old Testament... Zone Supporter

    28,942 Messages
    356 Likes Received
    Don't read the headline... read the story... it's 49% - 43% among REGISTERED voters. It's 49% - 47% among LIKELY voters...

    PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Monday through Wednesday shows Barack Obama with a 49%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters.

    Almost all of the interviews in this three-day rolling average were conducted before Wednesday night's third and final presidential debate at Hofstra University, which began at 9 p.m. ET. It will be several days before the full impact of this debate can be measured in the three-day rolling average, although its initial impact might be apparent as early as Friday's report.

    Meanwhile, the current rolling average shows that McCain has done slightly better in the days leading into the debate. McCain's 43% share of the vote matches his best in the last two weeks. Today's average also represents the first time since the Sept. 30 - Oct. 2 average that Obama has received less than 50% support from registered voters, although Obama continues to maintain a significant lead among this group. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

    Gallup is presenting two likely voter estimates to see how preferences might vary under different turnout scenarios. The "expanded" model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures, but with a lower undecided percentage, and show Obama up by six percentage points today, 51% to 45%.

    The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error. -- Frank Newport
  12. canters

    canters Active Member

    1,797 Messages
    7 Likes Received
    Barry, the warm feeling on the back of your neck is John.

    Here's Johnnie!!!!!
  13. Big Dakota

    Big Dakota New Member

    11,875 Messages
    0 Likes Received
    Are political sigs even allowed?
  14. Beast_from_East

    Beast_from_East Well-Known Member

    15,496 Messages
    2,904 Likes Received
    I agree there is a chance the polls may not be accurate, however you can look at where the candidates are campaigning to get a more accurate picture of what is going on.

    The fact that McCain is only contesting one blue state and Obama is stumping in fire engine red states tells me that the map is larger for Obama then it is for McCain.

    Larger map for Obama means more possiblities to reach 270, easier to do.

    Smaller map for McCain means limited possibilities to reach 270, very hard to.

    Thus, you can tell from where the candidates are campaigning that Obama is basically playing offense (going after a few fire engine red states to cherry pick) and McCain is playing defense (only contesting 1 bule state, trying to defend almost all of his red states).

    So this gives you a much more realistic view of the race rather then is one candidate 2 points up or 6 points up.
  15. trickblue

    trickblue Old Testament... Zone Supporter

    28,942 Messages
    356 Likes Received
    No... who has one?
  16. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

    5,971 Messages
    1 Likes Received
    I'm pretty sure that they are not.
  17. joseephuss

    joseephuss Well-Known Member

    21,953 Messages
    1,535 Likes Received
    At this point, wouldn't a likely voter have to be a registered voter? I guess you can have a registered voter that was polled and said they were not likely to vote. I wish I would have paid attention in my statistics and analysis class. This stuff is confusing. The only thing I do know is that there is an election coming up.
  18. Big Dakota

    Big Dakota New Member

    11,875 Messages
    0 Likes Received

    Sig bet discussion in this thread.
  19. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

    5,971 Messages
    1 Likes Received
    Likely voters would be registered voters, yes. However, like you said, registered voters aren't necessarily likely voters. The percentage of likely voters who end up voting is higher than the percentage of registered voters that end up voting, that's why it gives a more accurate projection.
  20. Route 66

    Route 66 Active Member

    3,310 Messages
    6 Likes Received
    Oh I agree with the assumption that McCain has an uphill battle. I just don't think the Obaminator has that much of a lead.

Share This Page