Great Article on 1st round success rate (Case for DeCastro)

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Galian Beast, Apr 26, 2012.

  1. Galian Beast

    Galian Beast Well-Known Member

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    In terms of drafting a guard/center there is a 42.8 success rate of centers/guards making the pro bowl at least once if they were drafted in the first round (last 10 years).

    The only thing higher is safety and tight end.

    When you get into multiple pro bowls:

    Guard is 42.8% (Center is 28.5%)

    The only thing higher is safety (than center)

    Guard/Center seems to be the safest pick in general, and even looking at DeCastro he seems to be the safest pick.

    With a team that has missed so many times in the last decade, I'd really appreciate us going for the safest pick/best bet.
  2. fanfromvirginia

    fanfromvirginia Inconceivable!

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    Good point although that makes Barron pretty safe as well....

    THUMPER Papa

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    I think that is mainly because Guard, Center, TE, & Safety are not seen as high priority positions like QB, DE, OT, CB, are. So the only time a team will select one in the first round is when they are truly standouts at their position.

    QBs will go in the first even when they are not seen as "can't miss" players because a team NEEDS a QB. Same with some of the others. Look at the mock drafts and you will see a lot of QBs, DEs, CBs, & OTs in the first round but only one or two interior linemen and safeties.

    It comes down to a perception of need rather than actual talent/ability. It is a rare draft when 3 interior linemen are selected in the first round but not rare at all to see more than 3 DEs taken early.

    RBs, WRs, & LBs vary with each draft so it's harder to make a general statement about those positions. You could have a bunch of them go early in one draft and very few the next.

    All that said, I think DeCastro should be our pick as he is a rare talent at OG, rather than Barron (whom many mocks have us taking) who is NOT a complete Safety IMO. We can look for DB help in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.
  4. StanleySpadowski

    StanleySpadowski Active Member

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    Interior linemen make the pro bowl on name recognition moreso than any other position. It's only logical that 1st round picks at those positions make the pro bowl at a higher rate.

    Plus interior linemen typically go later in the 1st round, which means more successful teams draft them and more successful teams get more pro bowlers, earned or not.
  5. The Quest for Six

    The Quest for Six Well-Known Member

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    how is Barron a safe pick, he may be the best safety in this draft but what does that say when the safety class in this draft is so weak.....And barron is certainly NO Ed Reed, he's more of a strong safety than a free safety and one could argue that he may be more of a product of playing in a great defense, especially front seven....I wouldn't mind the pick if he's there at 14, but as far as I'm concerned, Decastro is the safe pick in this draft and when jerry is always talking about getting players to help Romo, that's the guy I want, because a great offensive line helps Romo and the offense by running the ball, protecting the quarterback and helps control the clock keeping the defense off the field...First round, Dallas has missed too often by not taking the safe pick, 30 years not taking an offensive line, Smith proved why that idea was flawed, give me more safe picks in the first round, so give me Decastro if he's there...
  6. SDCowboy85

    SDCowboy85 Well-Known Member

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    ESPN is reporting that Dallas is going to have to move way up now to get Barron. The Bills and Chiefs are now both planning on drafting him. Yesterday, Jerry kept talking about moving up though so maybe we will.
  7. The Quest for Six

    The Quest for Six Well-Known Member

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    yeah, Drafting interior linemen after the first round over the last 15 years have worked so well for the cowboys, Decastro is a special player, give me a 12 year probowl type player in the line of a Larry Allen or a Steve Hutchinson, than some project that has failed in the past in later rounds

    THUMPER Papa

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    Moving up for Barron would be a HUGE mistake IMO. :bang2:
  9. Bull Frog

    Bull Frog Active Member

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    Maybe it's just me, but if you are looking for safe picks I think Hightower is the safest pick. He may not be a need, but he's a good football player. I think he will have a better career than Upshaw. If we can trade down 2 or 3 slots he makes even more sense. I'd be perfectly happy with DeCastro or Barron since they are more of a need.

    Just Say NO TO POE!
  10. The Quest for Six

    The Quest for Six Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree, especially for a safety......wouldn't mind a trade up for a player if the cowboys were 1 or 2 pieces away, but they aren't and I think Jerry is going to trade down if anything, not up!!
  11. SDCowboy85

    SDCowboy85 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe but both players that could help us the most right out of the gate, Barron and DeCastro, we will likely have to move up for now.
  12. Kangaroo

    Kangaroo Active Member

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    Castro is not larry Allen or even in the same skill level remember Allen played LT, RT and then guard when he got older
  13. ufcrules1

    ufcrules1 Well-Known Member

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    Only player we should trade up for is Claiborne. I'm against trading up for any other player on the board. I'm big time against trading up for Barron. If he is there at 14 and we are set on picking defense, then I'm ok with picking him. If we are going best player available and Barron and Decastro are there.. we should take Decastro but he is a sure thing..just like Tyron Smith was.
  14. Tricericon

    Tricericon Member

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  15. Idgit

    Idgit That sounds really boring Staff Member

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    Cause, meet effect.
  16. burmafrd

    burmafrd Benched

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    Does not make a difference. Bottom line is that DeCastro is probably the safest pick in the draft.

    And frankly this name recognition is over blown; yes for older players but how do they get there in the first place?
  17. BehindEnemyLinez

    BehindEnemyLinez Optimist Prime

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    <<<<<hoping DeCastro is chosen @ 14...
  18. SDCowboy85

    SDCowboy85 Well-Known Member

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    Highly doubt he's still there at 14.
  19. Galian Beast

    Galian Beast Well-Known Member

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    I'd be furious...
  20. Nation

    Nation Well-Known Member

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    The "safe" percentage logic is inherently flawed by the fact that 40 percent of our first round picks in the last decade have made the Pro Bowl. Roy, Newman, Ware and Jenkins have all made it and I think it's a safe bet that Dez and Ty will be there some day as well. If that is your barometer you can't really say Dallas has "missed so many times" when they're hitting at the same rate of the safest position.

    Trust the board and take the best player available regardless of position.

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