Here it is... the Playoff scenarios. We're still in it if the following happens....

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by TruBlueCowboy, Dec 19, 2005.

  1. TruBlueCowboy

    TruBlueCowboy New Member

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    EDIT - This has been revised with Adam's corrections.

    The NFC teams still in the hunt:

    NFC East - New Yok Giants 10-4 (@ Washington, @ Oakland)
    NFC North - Chicago Bears 10-4 (@ Green Bay, @ Minnesota)
    NFC South - Carolina 10-4 (Dallas, @ Atlanta)
    NFC West - Seattle 12-2 (Indianapolis, @ Green Bay)

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-5 (Atlanta, New Orleans)
    Dallas Cowboys 8-6 (@ Carolina, St. Louis)
    Minnesota Vikings 8-6 (@ Baltimore, Chicago)
    Atlanta Falcons 8-6 (@ Tampa Bay, Carolina)
    Washington Redskins 8-6 (New York Giants, @ Philadelphia)

    We have no chance to win the NFC East. We are mathematically eliminated. No matter what Washington does, if the Giants go 0-2, and the Cowboys 2-0 and both finish at 10-6, we are eliminated because although we split the series, they will have a better NFC East record even if they lose to the Skins next week. :bang2:

    So on to the next possibility.... wild card!

    And here is where it gets really interesting!

    #1 Right now, it's still possible for the Cowboys to go 2-0, and everyone else 0-2 and not even need a tiebreaker. Very improbable, but not impossible. :D

    #2 We do not want the Redskins with the same record as us! I hope I'm reading the rules right, but as you can see, with 3 or more teams tied for a wildcard spot, by NFL rules, the first thing to do is use division tie breaker rules to pick the best team from each division. So we lose that automatically because we are 0-2 against the Skins! So if there is one spot left and we are competing with the Skins, they will win it. If there are two spots left and three or more teams tied, then we pray that Washington wins the first tiebreaker against other teams so that it goes in first, and then we only have to worry about tiebreakers with the other teams. (Read Adam's post below for a better example of this.) If someone has some extra time, you could maybe calculate the tiebreakers with Washington vs. Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Carolina & Minnesota to see who wins in those scenarios. We are automatically eliminated from any tiebreaker as long as Washington is still in the tie. So hopefully, Washington wins its tiebreakers with the other teams first, and then we worry about the NFC South or Vikings.

    #3 If Dallas and Minnesota both go 2-0, we will both be tied for NFC record, common opponent, and will use the strength of schedule tiebreaker which the Cowboys win by 13 games (see Adam's post below).

    #4 If we win the last two games, we will win the tiebreaker with EVERY NFC South team!

    -- If we go 2-0 and Carolina 0-2 which puts both of us at 10-6, then we win any tiebreaker with them, because we AUTOMATICALLY win the tiebreaker because of our head-to-head matchup.

    -- If Dallas and Atlanta tie with either 1-1 (9-7) or 2-0 (10-6) records, we will win the tie breaker in both cases, becuse we win the 2nd tiebreaker among two tied teams, which is your NFC record.

    -- Here's the tricky one, and I'll need someone to correct me if I'm wrong. If Dallas goes 2-0 and Tampa Bay goes 1-1 and finish with the same record (10-6), then we would go to the 3rd tiebreaker regarding common opponents, and we would ONLY win that tiebreaker if our first game vs. New York is counted, and their first game vs. Carolina is counted as the common opponent. I'm not sure how the NFL views common opponents when one team plays someone twice and the other team only once, and vice versa, because of the divisional matchups, but we win the tiebreaker if we only count the first games of the aforementioned matchups, because we win 3-1 over their 2-2, because we beat San Francisco, and they did not.

    So basically, and please correct me if I'm wrong....

    • The only scenario that keeps us out is if Tampa Bay/Carolina claim the 1st wild card spot with an 11-5 record, and we are tied with Washington at 10-6 for the second spot in which case we will be pushed out.
    • If the Redskins, Dallas and another team(s) are tied for the last 2 wild card spots, then we need to worry about Washington's tie breakers with the other teams, because we are automatically eliminated in step one which rules out teams which do not win with the division rules. That kicks us out and the NFC South teams which are not ranked highest. Based on that, Washington competes with Minnesota and the highest NFC South team with the normal tiebreaker rules to see who is wild card #1. HOPEFULLY, Washington wins that tiebreaker and gets in first because if it doesn't win, we are knocked out because there is only only spot left and Washington will always beat us to it.

    So basically, we want the Skins to lose more games than us. :eek::

    Again, I'm just an amateur at this stuff so I apologize if I got it wrong, but hope this helps and is easy to understand.
  2. ravidubey

    ravidubey Active Member

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    Dallas will defeat Carolina and finish the season winning its last two games. Shake off what happened in emotionally charged New York and Washington for now-- those were charged divisional games.

    Here's what I'm hoping happens, and it's not unrealistic.

    - Either the Giants or Eagles will eliminate Washington.

    - Atlanta beats Tampa Bay; Tampa finshes 10-6.

    - Carolina beats Atlanta which they should be motivated to do to secure their division once we beat them . Atlanta finishes 9-7 with the Panthers winning the South at 11-5.

    - Minnesota goes 1-1 to also finish 9-7.

    1. Head-to-head. NO
    2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. TIE at 8-4.
    3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four. TIE VS. Washington, Detroit, San Francisco, and Carolina BOTH Dallas and TB would be 3-2
    4. Strength of victory (combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten) According to my guesses:

    TB will have beaten: Minnesota(9), Buffalo(5), Green Bay(3), Detroit(6), Miami(8), Washington(9), Atlanta(9), New Orleans (3 x2=6), and Carolina(11) = 66 wins

    Dallas will have beaten: San Diego(10), Kansas City(9), New York(12), Carolina(11), Philadelphia (7x2=14), St Louis(5), Detroit(6), San Francisco (3), Arizona(4) = 84 wins

    That puts Dallas at the 5 seed by strength of victory so the following tie-breakers don't matter.

    5. Strength of schedule.
    6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
    7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
    8. Best net points in conference games.
    9. Best net points in all games.
    10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
    11. Coin toss.

    Final Reg Season Standings
    NYG: 12-4 (3 seed; East Champs)
    Dallas: 10-6 (5 seed; 8-4 conference record)
    Washington: 9-7

    Chicago: 12-4 (2 seed; North Champs)
    Minny: 9-7

    Carolina: 11-5 (4 seed; South Champs)
    Tampa Bay: 10-6 (6 seed; 8-4 conference record)

    Seattle: 13-3 (1 seed; West Champs)

    Dallas dials up Carolina's number again (OK, a reach but this is my fantasy so why not)
    New York defeats Tampa Bay

    Dallas upsets Seattle (yeah, it's possible)
    Chicago defeats New York

    NFC Championship Game
    Dallas AT Chicago-- hey, anything goes.
  3. TruBlueCowboy

    TruBlueCowboy New Member

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    Good stuff Ravid. It does look likely when you view it that way. Hopefully, the Giants continue their winning ways or Philly pulls it together for one last moral victory, and the Skins lose one. I also don't think Minnesota will beat Chicago.
  4. Undisputed

    Undisputed Well-Known Member

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    Good post. Thanks for putting it all into perspective.
  5. Bach

    Bach Benched

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    There's a better chance we lose to Carolina, while Washington, Atlanta and Minny all lose 1 more and we all finish 9-7. In that case Washington would get the 6th seed due to the better conference record.

    I don't see Minny beating Baltimore and Chicago.
    I also don't think Atlanta beats Tampa Bay and Carolina.

    That means we either have to win out (unlikely) or else Washington can still lose one more and will still make the playoffs.
  6. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Salary Cap Analyst

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    No, we'd both be 8-4 in the NFC. And we'd both be 4-1 in common games (Detroit, Carolina, Giants, St. Louis). We'd win the tiebreaker on strength of victory (we'd currently win that by 13 games).

    That's not correct, either. Let's say Washington, Dallas, Minnesota and Tampa Bay all finish 10-6. First, Washington would beat Dallas in the NFC East to enter a three-team tiebreaker with Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Washington would win that on conference record (10-2) and would get the first wild card. THEN Dallas, Minnesota and Tampa Bay would be in a three-team tiebreaker for the second wild card. ("When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.") And in a three-team tiebreaker against Minnesota and Tampa Bay (or head-to-head against either one), we should win on strength of victory.
  7. TruBlueCowboy

    TruBlueCowboy New Member

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    Thanks for explaining that Adam. I should have just left this stuff to the experts. ;)

    The Minnesota thing is an honest mistake. I'm glad to know I misread that. So basically, we are in the Playoffs as long as we go 2-0, and Tampa Bay/Carolina don't claim the first Wildcard spot with an 11-5 record, and Washington is tied with us for the 2nd spot? I like our chances! Lose Washington, lose!
  8. demdcowboys#1

    demdcowboys#1 Well-Known Member

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    Thanx for all the input guys, if we win our next 2, it is very possible that we get in, we need WSH to lose next week, and we need MIN to lose next week. Along with all the other factors that go into deciding the wild card spot!!!

    We need to win our next 2 and GET IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!!
  9. TruBlueCowboy

    TruBlueCowboy New Member

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    Fixed the first post and put in Adam's corrections. Thanks again Adam.
  10. Undisputed

    Undisputed Well-Known Member

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    So both Washington and Dallas could make it eh? Please let both teams pull off miracle Cinderella victories so we can have Washington vs. Dallas in the championship. :D That'd be something if we got a shot at Giants, Seattle, AND Washington in the postseason. It'd go down in history as "The 2005 run of redemption".

  11. AmericasTeam31

    AmericasTeam31 Well-Known Member

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    I've taken a few looks at this here breifly and if we win out and Atl beats Carolina in Atl. (they have owned them the last few years), we will make the playoffs, I think. That means that Carolina will go 0-2 and finish 10-6, Dallas will be 10-6. No matter what Washington does, if they get the first WC spot so be it.

    That would give the division to TB if they win out and we'd get the tiebreaker over Carolina.

    If Atl wins out and Dallas both win out, TB wins division by the 4th tiebreaker (Conf. Record). We tie with ATl. and Carolina. We would have conf. record tie breakers over both.

    This is all assuming that Minn. loses to Chicago which I'm pretty sure will happen.
  12. Homerun Trot

    Homerun Trot New Member

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    Someone said yesterday that in the common opponents tiebreaker if one of the teams in a tiebreaker has played a team twice and gone 1-1 then then the only game that is counted is the win. So I'm going to assume that's true, and here's how I see it.

    We don't have to worry about Atlanta if we both win out, because they have a worse conf record with 5 losses.

    Using my assumption that I stated in the first sentence, we would beat Tampa if we win out and they go 1-1, both conf records would be the same, but common oppenents would go to us, because they lost to San Fran, and we would have beaten Car, Wash (once), Det, and SF.

    With Minnesota, if both of us win out, then overall, and conf records would be identical. Right now they're 7-4 and we're 6-4. The next tiebreaker is strength of victory. According to Ravidubey, we would have beaten teams with a combined total of 84 wins. Minnesota's would be 60 wins NO (4), GB (4), Det (4), Giants (12), GB (4), Cleveland (6), Det (4), St. L (6), Balt (5), Chic (11).

    And then as everyone has said, we need Wash. to go 1-1. But according to this, the only games we should really be worrying about, are the Wash-Giants game and our game @Carolina. If we win, and the Skins lose, we're in.
  13. Homerun Trot

    Homerun Trot New Member

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    good post. I was wondering how that works.
  14. TruBlueCowboy

    TruBlueCowboy New Member

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    No, because then we could lose the next week, and the Skins win and we're back in the same situation. :bang2:
  15. Homerun Trot

    Homerun Trot New Member

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    Yeah I'm assuming we beat St. louis, dangerous I know, but I can't see us losing @ HOME to them knowing we win, we're in.
  16. TruBlueCowboy

    TruBlueCowboy New Member

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    Only problem is I had that same mindset with the Giants game. LOL "This sucker means they win the NFC East and are Playoff bound. There's no way the Cowboys come out flat for this one!" Doh! :bang2:
  17. AmishCowboy

    AmishCowboy if you ain't first, you're last

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    I know it would be nice to say that we made the Playoffs, but you know the outcome is going to look like yesterday!.
  18. TruBlueCowboy

    TruBlueCowboy New Member

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    Probably. :(

    It's still great to watch 'em though. :)

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