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How many big reaches are there in a typical draft?

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by dwmyers, May 5, 2011.

  1. dwmyers

    dwmyers Well-Known Member

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    I'm looking at Seattle, and James Carpenter's selection, and I'm asking myself, how many big reaches are there in a typical draft? By this I mean a reach of a round or more. 1 a draft? 1 a round, maybe?

    I was thinking closer to 1 a round overall. Is that reasonable? Just asking for opinions here.

    David.
  2. nathanlt

    nathanlt Well-Known Member

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    Well, that depends heavily on how many picks Al Davis and the Raiders have.

    :lmao2:
  3. xwalker

    xwalker Well-Known Member

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    Carpenter was not as big of a reach as I initially thought.

    Carpenter drafted at #25

    cbs sports rank #40 overall
    espn (scouts inc) rank #43 overall

    It would be interesting to see a list of the biggest reaches in each round of this years draft.
  4. speedkilz88

    speedkilz88 Well-Known Member

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    When your talking about the first round and picking a guy that is a half round lower it's a pretty big reach.
  5. Cowboys22

    Cowboys22 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe on the surface it is, but if the team has determined thats who they want and they know he will not be available with their next pick then they have to take him or risk losing him. Sure, they can try and trade down but if they cannot get a deal then they have to take him. Personally, I never consider a pick a reach unless the player would have been available with their next pick. If I'm the one making the decision, I go with the player I want when I'm on the clock even if all the draft sites and so called experts have that player rated lower. If I don't think he will still be their next round, I take him and be happy with it.
  6. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    when you are using a website's ranking -- rather than rankings of actual NFL team personnel -- then any conclusions you come to are a big reach -- also it is really problematic to say "oh, 15 spot difference" when the actual difference between those players ranked 25-40 may be negligible
  7. dogberry

    dogberry Well-Known Member

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    Goose's list might be the place to start, since it is not his view but his take on the league's view.
  8. dwmyers

    dwmyers Well-Known Member

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    Abe,

    All I'm asking for here are opinions. I'm entirely happy with the amateur nature of those opinions, and the nature of the data sources on which those opinions are crafted. Since no one is a professional here, I'm not expecting an opinion developed over man-months of research and effort.

    That said, a relatively more professional source, such as Ourlads, doesn't have James Carpenter rated as a mid first rounder, and the Ourlads scale differences between other tackles available at the time are significant.

    David.
  9. speedkilz88

    speedkilz88 Well-Known Member

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    Goose had him at 41. He wasn't considered by anyone that I know of as a first round pick.
  10. dogberry

    dogberry Well-Known Member

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    I thought he, Carpenter, had good reviews from the Senior Bowl practices? My personal evaluation are sub-amateur.
  11. ThreeandOut

    ThreeandOut Well-Known Member

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    The LB Mouton that San Diego picked up in the second round was probably the biggest reach in the draft this year. I think he was projected to go around the 6th round. So for those of you complaining about the Carter selection in round 2, it could have been much worse.
  12. burmafrd

    burmafrd Well-Known Member

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    The only Carter selection I will hate for eternity is the one where we took Q.
  13. ThreeandOut

    ThreeandOut Well-Known Member

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    This is true.
  14. interestedobserver

    interestedobserver New Member

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    It's only a reach if they bust.
  15. jobberone

    jobberone Right turn Clyde Staff Member

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    The draft is such a crap shoot many picks will turn out to be 'reaches'. You can only evaluate a draft after several years. I do concede that some picks are immediately effective. I expect Smith and Murray to be 'good' picks this year. Carter will turn into one.
  16. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    That's a loaded word there David -- you got actual #s complete with standard deviations to make that claim?

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