Interesting playoff rushing stat

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by coult44, Jan 11, 2014.

  1. Yakuza Rich

    Yakuza Rich Well-Known Member

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    What's happened is that statisticians fell in love with the passing game because they were looking at the results from a micro level instead of a macro level. It's about passing the ball more effectively and moving the ball more effectively from down-to-down than accumulating a ton of yards that is important. Thus, the statisticians said 'you win the game by passing the ball and close out the game by running the ball.' But, they were missing out on factors such as the health of the defense. Historically, defensive players are more than twice as likely to get injured than offensive players. So by throwing more and more, you're putting your defense on the field longer and over the course of the season, they are more likely to be injured.

    I also think with this offensive scheme, it is very important to run the ball *enough*. Joe Gibbs comes from the same offensive scheme 'tree' and his record when his tailbacks have at least 20 carries in a game is impeccable (it's something like 100-0). Garrett is undefeated when Murray gets 20+ carries a game.

    Obviously, you can't just run the ball 20 times and expect the win. But where the statisticians screw it up is that they dismiss this relationship as having no merit. Getting 20 carries in a game means you're averaging 5 carries a quarter. It's such a fairly small amount of carries that breeds tremendous, outstanding success.

    So while you have to get the offense moving and not give up too many points, that number of 5 carries per quarter means that you're not neglecting the run. It's not about 'commitment', it's about 'neglect.' And in the end if you can run the ball 5 times per quarter, the play calling is more balanced which makes the QB's job easier, the threat of run is there which opens up play action for big plays and you can steadily wear out the opponent's defense while preserving your defense.


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