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Is This a Weak Draft?

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Avery, Jan 14, 2005.

  1. Avery

    Avery The Dog that Saved Charleston

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    Sure seems like it to me. While no draft class can truly be considered weak until years down the road, it doesn't seem to have a whole lot of flash to it with Leinart, Wright, Brooks, etc. all coming back.

    So where does the dropoff in the draft start? I would say around #12 at this point...
  2. ghst187

    ghst187 Well-Known Member

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    i would say the drop off starts after:
    Derrick Johnson, Rolle, Barron, Edwards, Mike Williams, Rogers, Marlin Jackson, and Cedric Benson

    pretty slim pickens after that.

    But yes I agree, very thin draft. Next year looks pretty good though. Leinert, Rod Wright, Ngata, and Brooks will come out.

    I'm of the opinion that we should draft one of the WRs with our first pick, if neither is available then try to get Rolle, if he's not available...dare i say it, trade down a few spots and get another pick.
    I do like Jamaal Brown with pick 1b if no CBs seem worthy
  3. zagnut

    zagnut New Member

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    Antrell Rolle
    Derrick Johnson
    Cedric Benson
    Mike Williams
    Aaron Rodgers (maybe)


    In my eyes, those are going to be the blue chippers, but even some of the top prospects have enough question marks to cause concern. If you're ralking about drop off from elite, I'd say it starts at 4 to 6.

    Alex Barron
    Braylon Edwards
    Cadillac Williams
    Erasmus James
    Ronnie Brown
    Marlin Jackson
    Alex Smith
    Marcus Spears
    Shawne Merriman
    Shaun Cody
    Jamaal Brown
    David Pollack
    Heath Miller
    Dan Cody
    Travis Johnson

    If you're talking drop off from the second tier, I think there's talent down to 18-20 -- but not necessarily value. Most drafts, these players seem like the type that would go between picks 25 and 40.

    Troy Williamson
    Thomas Davis
    Carlos Rogers
    Kevin Burnett
    Justin Miller
    Adam Jones
    Channing Crowder
    Elton Brown
    Corey Webster
    Brandon Browner
    Ernest Shazor
  4. Champsheart

    Champsheart Active Member

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    Good Post that should be getting more talk.

    I think this is a pretty weak draft overall.

    IMO it starts at the top. The #1, #2, and #3 picks are not worth much right now IMO compared to past years.

    I actually think the stongest point in the draft is probably the middle of Round 1 where we are sitting. I surely do not think it as at the top, nor the bottom of round 1.

    I think the 2nd round will be pretty decent.

    Overall though this probably is not the best draft to have 2 first round picks, but we are not in a bad spot to get some talent.

    Everyone keeps talking about not drafting a CB in round 1, but honestly I think that will probably be the best value at #20 with guys like Rogers, Jackson, Webster, Pac-Man, etc.
  5. chicago JK

    chicago JK Well-Known Member

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    I say it is weak with top level stars at the top of the draft. Last years draft was pretty strong up front. I really like the depth of this draft in the middle of the first and second rounds. This is not a good year to have a top 5 pick IMO. I think it is going to be hard to get a good offer to move out of that first pick...and I don't see a clear number one in this draft.
  6. StanleySpadowski

    StanleySpadowski Active Member

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    It's all relative. The talk when Dallas traded out of the 1st round last year was how strong this draft class looked then.

    The way things turned out, the strengths of this draft coincided with Dallas' draft position. There really isn't much difference between the top pick and #11 then there's a slight drop with pick #42 almost as good as #20. I think the Henson deal was great for Dallas, but the Texans are going to get a heck of a player with that 3rd rounder.



    There's no doubt that last year's draft was stronger at the top end, but this is one of the deepest draft's in memory, especially at some positions (RB, CB).

    Any of the top 6 picks last year would have been consensus #1 overall this year, but there'll be guys going in the middle second this year who would have been mid-firsts last season.

    The weakness in this draft, other than the lack of "star" quality top enders, is especially noticeable at DT. My own opinion is that Dallas doesn't need a "stud" DT (they already have one in Glover) but rather a space-eater type who are typically had in the later rounds.

    There's a slight weakness in this draft along the O-line, but last year's wasn't exactly breeming with blue-chippers (Jacob Rogers anyone?).

    In summation, while this draft sucks for some other teams (that's a good thing if you think about), I don't see how it could be any better for Dallas given their draft slots.

    My guess right now is LB at #11 (Blackstock), O-line at #20 (Brown) and CB at #42 (whomever drops and with the depth there, someone will).
  7. Portland Fanatic

    Portland Fanatic Active Member

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    Things are looking much weaker now....I say if DJ, BE, MW are not on the board when we pick at #11...trade down.

    Jerrah may be on to something about trading for pics next year...as badly as we need to fill holes...this may not be the draft to do it. Next years DT class may be very stong. May be worth trading that pic for next year...hate to say it, but we may end up doing that.
  8. StanleySpadowski

    StanleySpadowski Active Member

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    I'm not adverse to trading down at all. Given the depth, that's the smart play, but it would require someone else wanting to trade up. I just don't see anyone wanting to move to #11 unless someone falls in love with either Smith or Williams and they're still on the board.
  9. Rack Bauer

    Rack Bauer Federal Agent

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    I agree. This is a weak draft.

    The QBs? Rogers and Smith, and neither would of been drafted ahead of Eli, Rivers, and Rothleisberger last year.

    The RBs? A little strong then last year, but no one really takes RBs high anymore anyway. That could change this year (hopefully it does).

    DE? There's no Peppers', Suggs', or Freeneys in this draft.

    OLB? There's DJ and that's it. A big dropoff after that.

    MLB? No one worthy of a first rounder IMO.

    DT? Another weak area.

    OL? Extremely weak at the top. Might be ok as far as depth, but there's no blue chippers this year.

    WR? Edwards is the top guy, and even he has a lot of negativity surrounding him. Same for Williams. There's a lot of guys that "Could" be real good, but no Roy Williams', Andre Johnsons', or Charles Rogers' in this draft.

    CB? Very strong this year, IMO, but I don't think it's wise to draft a CB high with the rules changes. CBs are allowed to cover downfield in college, there's no telling if they can cover with in the NFL with their hands tied behind their backs. That said, I wouldn't mind getting Rolle, Rogers, Browner, or a couple of other CBs at the #20 spot.
  10. Oh_Canada

    Oh_Canada Well-Known Member

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    Frankly I do not remember a weaker one.....figures it happens to be the same year the Cowboys own a pair of picks.
  11. Avery

    Avery The Dog that Saved Charleston

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    Let's analyze by position to see who we might take and who might be available:

    Offense:

    QB - Rogers is a top five prospect. Don't be surprised to see Alex Smith break into the top ten. Significant dropoff after those two.

    No QB.

    RB - Best field in years. Brown, Caddy, Benson are all top ten candidates. If JJ didn't pan out as well, we would be in the mix. We won't spend a pick this high on a backup.

    No RB.

    WR - Williams and Edwards are the upper tier guys and both may be gone when #11 rolls around. Troy Williamson will be there but it's a reach to take him that high. Guys like White from UAB may also move up the boards but we're better off focusing elsewhere if Mike and Braylon are MIA.

    Solid chance only if one of them slips.

    TE - We have Witten. Miller is a good player but he won't be a Cowboy.

    No TE.

    OT - An interesting position with guys like Jammal Brown and Alex Barron conceivingly being available. Flozell had a subpar year but has a huge contract and will be expected to bounce back. Rogers was injured all year in the revolving door at RT. A slim chance of us taking one, but not likely at this point.

    Probably no OT.

    OG - Elton Brown's the best and he ain't going this high. No guard this round.

    No OG.

    C - No one's worthy and we have Johnson.

    No C.

    Defense:

    DE - Some quality guys that may change depending upon the defensive scheme. Pollack, Merriman, Spears are all possibilities. Guys like Dan Cody could be around #20. A little high for any of them at this point though Merriman is very Terrell Suggs-like and will gain some momentum as draft day approaches.

    A slight reach, but a possibility at DE.

    DT - Extremely weak class. Johnson, Hawthorne and Cody are the best though none merit the #11. #20 is probably considered a stretch as well at this point. I think we need to look at FA if we want to replace Carson as a starter as none of these guys are huge run-stuffing DT's (Hawthorne is the closest at 305). Ngata would have been sensational at #20.

    A big reach, but a possibility at DT.

    LB - Some good quality here. Johnson is a blue-chipper and may be off the board. Merriman could play back there. A lot of solid guys like Lance Mitchell, Kirk Morrison, Kevin Burnett will be available at #20 and later on in the first early second. This is one of the deeper LB drafts we've had in quite some time and I think we need to grab two of these guys in the first day to replace/push Coakely/Singleton/James.

    Good chance of LB.

    SS - We have Roy. Some say Thomas Davis we should target but he's essentially the poor man's Roy and gives us two subpar coverage safeties. We gain nothing by having him play out of position. I like Davis, but we've invested too much into our secondary in first round picks.

    No chance at SS.

    FS - We definitely need one though #11 or #20 is a reach. Some solid guys like Bullocks and Butler will be available in round two. We won't spend a pick this high on Dixon's replacement.

    No chance at FS.

    CB - I know I just said 'invested too much into our secondary in first round picks', but this is the strength of the draft. Rolle would have to be given consideration at #11. Pac-Man could gain some feelers at well. Lots of quality guys to choose from around #20 like Carlos Rogers and Justin Miller. It may be too enticing to ignore CB as there's simply so many solid guys to be had to play alongside Newman and move Frazier to the nickel.

    Good chance at CB.

    K/P - Shut up. Nugent would be nice in round 3 (if we had one).

    No chance at K/P.

    So what are we left with? Chances are good we go WR if one is available though if Derrick Johnson is on the board, all bets are off. In the likely case Edwards and Williams are gone, the defensive side will be targeted and two of the three (DE, LB, CB) being taken in the first. Rolle would be the BPA and worthy of the #11. Pac-Man could contend as well. A little high for any of the DE's at this point. Merriman will get some buzz as a LB/DE.

    If Rolle is on the board at #11, we take him. If not, we go Merriman.

    At #20, we give long looks at Pollack and Cody if Rolle is the previous selection. Burnett gets consideration as well. In the end, we take Pollack. We go either Rogers, Miller, Marlin Jackson if Merriman goes #11.

    So what do we ultimately have?

    #11 - Rolle (CB)
    #20 - Pollack (DE/LB)

    or

    #11 - Merriman (DE/LB)
    #20 - Rogers/Miller/Jackson (CB - Pick one)

    I could live with either of those drafts though would prefer the first. I'd love to see Rolle/Merriman in the first though it's doubtful.

    Bottom line is that we are in the ideal position at #11 to take a great defensive guy. The top ten is an offensive draft with Rogers, Smith, Benson, Brown, Caddy, Barron, Williams, Edwards, etc. all vying for position. It's not entirely implausible that the first defensive player gets taken at #11 by us.

    Ideally? Take the impact guy at #11 (Rolle/Williams/Edwards/Johnson) and trade down from the #20 or for a first rounder next year. There's a lot of quality in the late first/early second and I'd love to cash in. Now all we need is someone who wants to trade up :( .

    This is going to be an interesting draft.
  12. StanleySpadowski

    StanleySpadowski Active Member

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    Your argument would be much stronger if you picked a single year and compared it.

    You mention people like Freeney, yet he was projected as a late 1st when he came out and his pick was panned by almost every "expert" at the time.

    The only "weak" positions this year are WR and DT.

    Compare last year's and this year's at the same point in time and you might change your position. Remember Rivers looked like a 2nd rounder at this point last year.

    Here's my take at each position.

    QB Last year was better, but let's see where Smith and Fry end up.

    RB This year in a landslide.

    WR Last year was better top to bottom.

    TE There's no "soldja", but this season has much more depth.

    OT This season is better. Ferguson would have made this class a top 10 ever.

    OG Brown outdoes everyone from last year and the depth is better.

    C No great prospect in either draft.

    K Nugent blows Kaeding away

    P I'd call it a push.

    DE Deeper than than last year's. I'd go with this year's.

    DT The biggest weakness of this year's draft.

    LB Wilma and DJ Williams were great picks, but who knew at the time? Crowder, Johnson and Blackstock make this class better comparatively speaking pre-draft.

    S Davis isn't Sean Taylor, but guys like Shazor make this class deeper and hence more valuable.

    CB No one can disagree that this is one of the best classes to come out in a long, long time.
  13. chicago JK

    chicago JK Well-Known Member

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    Nice post Stanley. This draft appears to lack the name players that regular fans know by name but it does appear to have nice depth. Good job.
  14. hendog

    hendog Active Member

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    Mark me down as saying "Channing Crowder will be a star" and he will be better than Derrick Johnson. I told my friend last year at this time that I hoped we drafted Vilma w/ our 1st rd pick. I kept watching the Cane's to scout DJ Williams and alot of times when he was fixing to make the tackle Vilma would FLY in and kill the ballcarrier. Vilma was just everywhere. While Crowder is not as fast as Vilma he has always been extremely active in every game I've watched the Gators. He just mkes ALOT of plays and tackles.
  15. ghettogandhi

    ghettogandhi Member

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    if we get Merriman at # 11 and Jackson at 20 I would pee myself and then go to sleep.
  16. DaBoyz73

    DaBoyz73 Member

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    Rolle won't be there when we pick in the 20th spot. If we want him we will have to draft him with our 11th pick.
  17. Rack Bauer

    Rack Bauer Federal Agent

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    There's no reason to compare it to another draft. I went one position at a time and there's just not a lot of great players per position, other then CB. Don't know what you're getting at. I didn't post it to start a debate.

    Whatever.



    I'd be shocked if Rogers wasn't the first CB drafted. He's better then Rolle. Rolle is a good football player though.
  18. Oh_Canada

    Oh_Canada Well-Known Member

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    I guarantee you Aaron Rodgers would have been the fourth QB taken last year.

    Benson, Williams are no better than Steven Jackson and Kevin Jones...in fact they are probably a step below.

    Any DT's this year who would crack the first round a year ago?

    Offensive line is very weak this year.

    This draft has noooo star quality and very weak in the game's most important positions, OL, DL, QB, and RB.

    It's a poor draft.


  19. Rack Bauer

    Rack Bauer Federal Agent

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    Agreed. The only strong position in this draft is CB, and thanks to the new rules they just aren't as big of an impact player as they should be.

    There are very few position with star quality. RB has depth, but I'd say only Cadillac is better then the RBs last year. WR is obviously weaker then last year.

    Obviously there's no one as good as Gallery this year on the OL.

    DE might be a little stronger then last year. This year's has depth, but no bigtime stars.

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