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Recommended Loss Forensics: Romo vs. the League's Top QB

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by percyhoward, Jul 3, 2014.

  1. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    If a QB's yards, completions, TD, turnovers, first downs, big plays, and sacks don't mean anything, it raises the question, "What does a QB do that is meaningful?"

    Six of the last seven MVP awards have gone to players who have not performed as well as Romo in these situations the last four years.
    TheDallasDon, guag, Jstopper and 14 others like this.
  2. Section444

    Section444 Well-Known Member

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    Just the guy you want to draft if your goal is to win your fantasy league.
    Blackspider214 and rcaldw like this.
  3. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    You don't "just" have to look at one or two performances. You actually have to look at all of them.
  4. DanteEXT

    DanteEXT Well-Known Member

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    LOL... I hope you aren't being serious.
    guag, Jstopper, zack and 1 other person like this.
  5. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Or any other league. Assuming you can build a team around him, of course.
    DandyDon1722 and CowboyMike like this.
  6. theogt

    theogt Surrealist Zone Supporter

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    In other words, "if we used individual performance to measure individual performance...."
  7. Animosity

    Animosity Active Member

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    Fine.. Ill look at 8 years of statistics. 1-6 in win or get in games. One playoff win in 8 years. Not even a hall of famer like Bill Parcells could have made Romo into a winner. It's simply not him. Wilson is the most efficient QB in the league and does not make mistakes. Seattle needs a QB that won't make mistakes. That eliminates Romo.
  8. Denim Chicken

    Denim Chicken Well-Known Member

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    Someone is paying attention:



    Mark Lane (@therealmarklane)

    7/3/14, 12:54 PM
    According to percyhoward, since 2010, Tony Romo is 4-10 when he has a passer rating between 95-110.
    guag and Idgit like this.
  9. DallasEast

    DallasEast Cowboys 24/7/365 Zone Supporter

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    [IMG]
    I was taught not to say this at Princeton but, "Say wut?"
    guag and cml750 like this.
  10. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Might want to consider an objective comparison of each QB's teams, then reach your conclusions.
    zack likes this.
  11. Gameover

    Gameover Well-Known Member

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    Left eye Right eye, brain and gut .... Use them!
  12. HappyOnions

    HappyOnions Datwin

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    That's some really sound analysis and impressive research.

    So why does it just feel like one giant excuse for why Romo hasn't accomplished more than he has?
    rcaldw and Wayne02 like this.
  13. birdwells1

    birdwells1 Well-Known Member Zone Supporter

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    If Romo was In Seattle his 16 million dollar salary wouldn't allow them to build the defense and oline that they have today. Wilson cost them pennies so the financial resources can be poured into the trenches.
    Sportsbabe and boyzjunkie like this.
  14. pancakeman

    pancakeman Well-Known Member

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    This is irrelevant to your main points which are jawdroppingly good as usual, but didn't Peyton's clock reset when he missed the whole 2011 season?
  15. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    You tell me.
  16. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Thanks. Since he didn't officially have a "season" in 2011, we can't really count it as a season out of the top 10.
  17. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Cool. Emp has always cited me.

    I had to look up that stat about four times before I could believe it.
  18. Yakuza Rich

    Yakuza Rich Well-Known Member

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    The problem with Romo is that he becomes less effective when he starts throwing the ball more than 34 times a game. Part of that is defense. Part of that is playcalling. Part of that is Romo audibling into pass plays. And part of that is Romo not being as great as some people make him out to be.

    Here's a look at Romo's pass attempts per game and his FO.com DVOA ranking throughout the years:

    2006: 31.0 (5th)
    2007: 32.5 (6th)
    2008: 34.6 (11th)
    2009: 34.4 (7th)
    2010: 35.5 (11th)
    2011: 32.6 (4th)
    2012: 40.5 (10th)
    2013: 35.7 (10th)

    Here's how the defenses for the Cowboys ranked using FO.com's methodology:

    2006: 14th
    2007: 9th
    2008: 9th
    2009: 10th
    2010: 27th
    2011: 16th
    2012: 23rd
    2013: 30th

    So, it's not ALL on the defense. And the defense isn't the sole cause for Dallas throwing more. It's just the more Romo starts throwing the ball, he becomes less effective. I would surmise that it comes down to the following:

    1. Playcalling becomes more predictable.

    2. Teams can start blitzing more and Romo isn't as effective against the blitz

    3. He is more apt to turn the ball over.

    The only year that Romo had some limit on his pass attempts per game and had one of his lesser seasons was 2008, when he injured his throwing hand.

    Furthermore, our relying on Romo to throw the ball more seems to coincide more with injuries on defense. Historically, defensive players are more than twice than likely to get injured than defensive players. So, if you're throwing the ball more, that means more time on the field for the defense and more injuries are likely. And our big injury years on defense...came in 2012 and 2013....when Romo averaged the most pass attempts per game of his career.

    Certainly, this falls on Garrett. But, it also falls on Romo who likes to audible out of running plays. Both need to learn that less is more when it comes to his performance.







    YR
    Animosity likes this.
  19. gimmesix

    gimmesix Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life

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    I'm curious as to what makes the stats empty? The fact that the team hasn't had playoff success or won certain games that people deem more important than others.

    Then, that also means we can't say Dez Bryant is a great receiver, because his stats are empty. We can't say Tyron Smith is a great player, because his stats (lack of sacks) are empty. Etc.

    Let me put it another way: Receiver A catches 9 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown in a loss. Receiver B catches 4 passes for 22 yards and no touchdowns in a victory. Does that mean receiver B had a better game than receiver A because receiver A's stats were "empty"?
  20. DallasEast

    DallasEast Cowboys 24/7/365 Zone Supporter

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    < Insert Final Jeopardy theme >
    guag likes this.

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