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Most Accurate 2004 Poll

Discussion in 'Political Zone' started by irvin88, Oct 23, 2008.

  1. irvin88

    irvin88 Active Member

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    McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.

    About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season. Learn more at www.TIPPonline.com.
  2. Cajuncowboy

    Cajuncowboy Preacher From The Black Lagoon

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    I already posted this and it was roundly condemned by the leftists.


    Truthfully, you will see the polls start to shrink each day I think because in the end the pollsters want to get it right because it makes them look like idiots when they don't And if they keep up with these huge double digit numbers when everyone knows it's very close they will end up looking like fools.

    Like they did in 200 and 2004.
  3. masomenos

    masomenos Less is more

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    Yeah projection margins always shrink as election day approaches, it is odd for it to make a shift to the other side this late though. We shall see.
  4. Heisenberg

    Heisenberg Pow! Pow!

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    There are 3 threads about this poll already. The major problem with it has already been pointed out and with the problem corrected, the poll falls right in line with others.

    Look at the internals. Notice the 18-24 age group. McCain leads by 50. Good luck with that one.
  5. silverbear

    silverbear Semi-Official Loose Cannon

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    ROTFLMAO... I'm gonna rain on your parade again, Irvin...

    First off, I'll repeat, guys like you who rely on the results of ONE poll, because you like what they have to say, are intellectually dishonest... you're propagandizing, trying to convince people (and probably, yourself) that the race is closer than it is...

    But more important, fivethirtyeight.com, that well-regarded website that takes a CLOSE look at the polls, has an article up calling the methodology of the poll you're touting here, into serious question... I'll post the article here, but basically they're saying that these folks severely undersampled the 18-24 year old vote, a demo that heavily favors Obama:

    You make this too easy, man... :D
  6. silverbear

    silverbear Semi-Official Loose Cannon

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    As it should have been, their methodology is highly questionable...
  7. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    Silverbear -- don't know if you know this site but they also provide a projection like 538.


    Today in fact, they have an article on single polls vs. aggregates. This is a nice companion to 538 - they use slightly different methods but are pretty consistent in terms of outcome. 538 is based more in methods common in fields like economics whereas the Princeton election consortium uses methods common to psychology and medicine
  8. silverbear

    silverbear Semi-Official Loose Cannon

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    No, I hadn't heard of it, Abe, and I'm looking forward to checking it out in depth... thanks for the heads up...
  9. zrinkill

    zrinkill Diamond surrounded by trash

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    I am sorry ...... but what good is a poll that says the guy you are supporting is barely losing.
  10. jimnabby

    jimnabby Well-Known Member

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    Today's IBD/TIPP poll is out: Obama 45.8, McCain 42.3, for a 3.5 point Obama lead.
  11. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

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    What is remarkable about this is that they still have a crazy youth vote reported -- 30% Obama, 64% McCain. Obama leads with all other groups except 65+ where McCain is shown with a 4% lead. So based on this poll, McCain is doing great among 18-24 voters. That dog don't hunt.

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